[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Obs

4am Temp was 2.8c and Dewpoint was 2.1c

5am Temp was 2.1c and Dewpint was 0.9c

Getting there slowly

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, essexweather said:

Just got off the phone with the duty forecaster in Exeter. Slight delay with the colder air, but snow for the Amber zone still expected.

No bust... yet!

Canterbury taking a right old walloping already which is a good sign

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just now, Spraggyy said:

Guys calm down it’s just late

Yes and Girls are allowed to be late..... Maybe Darcy thinks its her wedding day and she has gone around the block a few more times

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Right so we are talking a delay rather than cancellation here right?!

yesssss

Good signs its snowing 40 miles to our north and good signs we still have a North Easterly off the land and not hot easterly off the tropical bath lol

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Yes Darcy is nearer Denmark than she is to the Uk, if you look on Sat24 at the Benelux radar and run it you can see a finger of cloud now running in a straight NE To SW line down the coast of the Uk

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, classylady said:

Good morning all you mad people! Just woken up, quick look out the window and it’s still raining, Should I go back to bed for a couple of hours or stay up? Hmmm...

Back to bed and wake up at 7am I reckon

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just now, Southender said:

Morning Paul...

Dare I ask where the snow is at?

The thing that gives me hope is.........

Look on XCWeather at the Buoy Data in the North Sea and all are around -2c to -4c

Also Norwich and Wattisham are now at zero

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Looking through the 00z suite at the moment they are far quicker to break up this frontal and on the recent runs and move into a convective banding pattern as early as this afternoon.

Just to warn you, the 00z AROME (which didn't do to badly with the further east placement of the front sadly) doesn't have much in SE Essex until much later today. Its still keen on 15cms but alot comes overnight tomorrow now.

At least with convective bands you know it will be strong enough to drag the cold air down.

Here's hoping eh

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

all is not lost folks - gfs has something quite tasty for our region around the 19th February. 

That made me laugh out loud Stu

Think Arome was defo one of them, cant remember the other 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

8 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Do you not think this is premature? Snow still forecast for most of the next two days and temps will soon be safely the right side of marginal.

No not really, when things are off by a full 5c on the dewpoint at any given timestamp (eg it was supposed to be -3c on the dewpoint at 4am) on 6 of the 8 models i looked at you know something has gone badly wrong at the beginning of the modelling.

Look at it this way, If I was chasing tornadoes and the temp was supposed to be 80f and the Dewpoint around 72f and in effect the dewpoint was 66f I would not expect to see tornadoes and only High Based Thunderstorms due to the high temp/dp spread and quickly tell my eager customers that some pretty clouds would be in the offing and not low lcl ground scraping tornadoes.

Something looks to have gone wrong with the modelling of Darcy or it gone awry somewhere over in the low countries

We shall see if trends improve in the next few hours but not holding my breathe, not writing off the whole spell but this first bite (frontal) is looking dodgy now

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Darren

Slightly concerning that all locations up and down the east coast have positive dewpoints even in the North East ?

I dont like the look of this one bit

Could be a huge round of applause to Ian from last night coming here as he might have spotted the alarm bells ringing very early with how Darcy was acting around 10pm last night

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Who poured hot water into the Thames?! Really struggling to get the temp down here whats the best site any links to see current temps /dew points #still light rain!

Southend Airport is 3c/2c bloody shocking

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Deary Deary Deary me

This could go down as the Biggest Bust of them all

Absolutely shocking modelling from every single Model, when your expected Temperature at 4am is 5c too high and your dewpoint is 7c too high something tells you something has badly gone wrong

Think I said I would retire and leave the weather forums if this failed well looks like I might be on me way out

This will go down in History though bigger than THAT ECM

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Night All see ya in 4 Hours

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just look at the difference between these 2 radar grabs

North Sea Filling Up

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

And before people say its later than planned check the Amber warning box, it starts at 0400 on Sunday 7th Feb

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, spayne said:

Paul, have you dared to visit the model thread...? It’s gone into meltdown mode

No way Hose not that brave when breakdowns are being looked at

Btw Nice Radar on Sat24 from the NL Radar on there, shows the westwards movement and shearing off the coast of Denmark, run the annimation, looks further north than modelled but all on track for a 4am hit

Infrared satellite images of Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Clouds in Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg at night and in the evening. Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Satellite Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Rain in Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg - SAT24.com

EN.SAT24.COM

---

Infrared satellite images of Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Clouds in Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg at night and in the evening. Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Satellite Weather...

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Lol you think tomorrow and this week we be special the best is yet to come

INCREDIBLE 

Some would still say its Marginal 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, craigore said:

Temp plummeting. 

2.4c

Dp 3c

Cold strong wind .

Think your DP sensor might be broke as your Dewpoint cant be higher than your temp, not possible in Meteorology might be worth getting that checked

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, dallas said:

What's your altitude there Paul?

We moved a few years ago used to be 135ft asl but now down to 81ft asl so marginality is awful for here

Just up the road though in Rayleigh it can get to around 200ft asl and thats only 3 miles away

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

You fancy our area to do well Paul? 

Yep see reply to Vesuvius - Still looks ok to me

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Vesuvius said:

Thoughts tomorrow, Paul ?  Still think we are in a good space ?

Yep

Expecting 10cm tomorrow and then streamer should add another 10cm on Monday, should have 20cm going into Tuesday locally.

Great thing is snow will stick around all week, with freezing fog and rime and then cold carries on into next weekend

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Blowing a gale in SE Essex now! 
Come on Darcy, show us what ya got ?

Yh that wind is getting really strong now

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Let’s actually tell the real facts here the majority of models give snowfall to a large swathe of SE. UKMO and ECM pretty much have remained unchanged today, the UKV and AROME are looking isolated and judging by radar imagery over Benelux with limited NW extent are likely to be off. It seems some here take the apps as a gospel and go into panic mode very silly. 

I am not even commenting in here atm, just laughing at the comments in the background

Your wasting your breathe Daniel. Leave em to it

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

Can we at least wait until midday tomorrow before people call it a bust.. 

 

This is totally normal for these events 

Happens like Clockwork and same with Plume Set-Ups in the summer

Its hilarious