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Posts posted by MattTarrant
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Temps falling here with a gradual transition to snow developing. Temps at 2.3
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23 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
What did May and Clarkson have to say?
Diddly squat
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Monday 18th, Cambridge, 38.6
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38 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
The bowling ball low exiting the US will flatten any ridge attempt very quickly I think.
The 168 later on will give us an idea.
Just so everybody knows, you can now view both the 156 and 168 hours charts for the UKMO on meteociel. Just click on 0.1° resolution option .
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On 27/10/2021 at 22:04, Badgers01 said:
Have Derwent water and Buttermere joined up yet that used to be the first sign of trouble ! ?
That would be Derwent Water & Bassenthwaite Lake your referencing!
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And its snowing...A nice surprise for sure!
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2 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:
according to Met Office auto weather, it's 1c, it's nothing but pure rain here, can't even see a hint of sleet in it
They are forecasting rain though for your area.
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Unfortunately back to rain
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Like a flick of the switch it's snowing and has instantly turned white!!
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6 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:
Probably rain near the coast. It's very marginal:/
Has it turned wintry at all in Exeter?
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Starting as light rain, temp though - 1.5 so yeah
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2 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:
It's rain in Exeter fs
Temperature?
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Southampton are definitely providing us with plenty of smiles this season! Good start to the weekend!
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23 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:
Great looking squall line sweeping across this evening, currently lined up from Buckfastleigh-Cardiff.
Absolutely wild at the moment, also accompanied by a serious temperature gradient. Very impressive.
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1 hour ago, AWD said:
The trend has been south/weaker but still scope for an evolution like this! Harmonie is an an adaption/upgrade on the Arome model so one would think it verifies decently. Though obviously things look far less promising than this time yesterday!
Find attached some information about the Harmonie model;
. http://www.hirlam.org/index.php/hirlam-programme-53/general-model-description/mesoscale-harmonie
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5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Yep. There's no signs of instability at the mid-levels here, just the odd bit of Cirrus.
Fair amount of mid level instability here in West Somerset
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Must be an error at the Gatwick Airport station...34C @ Midday
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5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:
Steve
Why does that chart show Aberdeen in the Midlands and Edinburgh in the Channel?
I believe he just took a screenshot before it all loaded! WXcharts can often be a little slow to change its scales when going inbetween diffrerent map sizes.
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Hey everybody,
First off hope everybody is managing themselves during this very difficult time, both mentally and physically! Though as I am sure everybody will agree that this forum has acted as a good place for many, with many helpful topics and thoughtful members! Though as the 'Covid 19' threads can be rather depressing, I have decided to devise this thread as a distraction for those who are struggling or just as a means of thinking and talking about events of the past!
This thread:
. Discuss people's personal memories of certain events, whether its personal or simply memories of news responses etc
. Provide a FRIENDLY environment for people to chat and remember events
. To look back and remind ourselves of some of the crazy weather this country has experienced! The events will largely be post 2000 so we can incorporate younger members! Though some really famous 'older' events will be included also!
How will it work?
. Every day (10 am approx), a new event will be added to discuss. A brief overview of the event will be provided, mainly from the Met Office historical archives!
. A question will be also be added on each day for people to have a guess with and a bit of fun!
THIS IS FOR FUN AND TO HELP PEOPLE TAKE THEIR MINDS OF EVERYTHING GOING ON, PLEASE BE RESPECTFUL!!
EVENT 1 - NOV/DEC 2010 COLD PERIOD
'From late November to Boxing Day 2010 the UK experienced two spells of severe winter weather with very low temperatures and significant snowfalls. The first of these spells lasted for two weeks from Thursday 25 November to Thursday 9 December and saw persistent easterly or north-easterly winds bringing bitterly cold air from northern Europe and Siberia, accompanied by snow. Eastern Scotland and north-east England saw the most persistent and heaviest snow, which accumulated to depths of 50 cm or more across the higher ground by the end of the spell. However, lower lying areas were also affected and the snow increasingly spread to other parts of the UK, so that by early December many areas of the UK were under lying snow. Temperatures struggled to rise above freezing during the day and there were very severe frosts at night. Temperatures widely fell below -10 °C on several nights and on occasion below -20 °C in northern Scotland. This spell of snow and freezing temperatures occurred unusually early in the winter, with the snowfalls judged as the most significant and widespread in late November and early December since late November 1965. The period from 9 to 15 December saw milder and quieter conditions with a gradual thaw of lying snow. However, a second spell of severe weather began on Thursday 16 December as very cold Arctic air pushed down across the UK from the north. Snow showers affected the north and west on Friday 17 December, while there was heavier snow across southern England and Wales on Saturday 18 December. Further heavy snow affected south-west England on Monday 20 December. The UK remained under bitterly cold Arctic air until Boxing Day, with day time temperatures again failing to rise above freezing and very severe frosts. While there was little further snowfall, lying snow remained until 26 to 27 December'.
ENJOY!!
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4 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:
I just don't see how you can spend millions developing somthing and then release it without a long period of testing in which you iron out issues.
Imagine it misses the whole thing altogether?
The FV3 I believe was tested for about 5 years, the stratosphere was something barely recognized in the testing phase or at least in the presentations about the new model. Time will tell I guess, keep the negatives until the event has happened and then we can see who is right!
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5 hours ago, Recretos said:
There is not much hard data to compare the two as far as I know. There likely is data in existence, that was used during the development, testing and fine tuning phases for the new FV3. But those are probably mostly internal. At least I have not came across any comparison data.
On a general note, I kinda feel an anti-FV3 agenda in this thread. Not sure why, because FV3 is a very capable solver. It is actually appropriate for the strat, as a dynamic core. Has anyone noticed when looking at the strat charts, they look much more realistic? Especially the temperature forecast. You can actually get the feeling of fluidity, even at 1° resolution. You can actually see the eddies in the surf zone, and energy and waves in the forecast. That is not due to resolution, but due to the capability of the FV3. Below is a comparison of GEFS and FV3, both on a 0.5°grid. Now you tell me, where can you see the actual fluid dynamics? You really get the feeling that you are looking at water motion, when you look at the GFS with the FV3 core. And that is pretty much what this is. It is like motion of water, combined with waves and circulation.
This does not automatically mean a better forecast, but as far as I am looking by eye, it is not bad at all! It has the same bias as the old one, trending towards a weaker vortex into FI. But all those biases go out the window and are not important when SSW dynamics start.<-Those are mainly influenced by the trop activity, so any error in the trop forecast will reflect in the strat forecast too. Besides, when a stratospheric warming trend starts in the FI, it can swing the warming air mass 1000-3000km left or right with each run, making big differences from run to run. But the forecast is still a success, because it has seen the developing warming for example, which materializes.
So to me, the FV3 is quite a capable strat solver. Forget the old GFS, it is gone anyways. So far it seems that FV3 is doing a good job. More time will be needed to make proper actual comparisons.
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs/updates/EMC_CCB_FV3GFS_9-24-18.pdf
The above is a link a to a presentation (2018) where a few comments are about the stratosphere in the FV3 GFS
These points are found on page 53
FV3GFS Temps are similar to GFS in middle and lower stratosphere
• FV3GFS Temps are warmer in upper stratosphere
• FV3GFS Temp fcsts in winter hem upper strat high lats are colder
• Zonal Winds are slightly worse in FV3GFS at longer fcst times
• Ozone mixing ratio analyses and fcsts are similar
• Total ozone anal are diff at high lats, FV3GFS fcsts are slightly better
• Specific Humidity is much more realistic
• FV3GFS is similar to GFS forecasting the 2018 SSW
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Power Outage at the Bologna data centre in Italy. Believe it's been restored but not sure when 12z will run.