MattTarrant
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Posts posted by MattTarrant
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2 hours ago, J10 said:
Love photos there Malcolm.
Horrible looking ski lift accident in Georgia today, luckily no terrible injuries.
What sort of safety systems should be in place to stop this happening and has anyone here been in a scary ski lift situation.
I have never been Skiing so lacking knowledge, but do chairlifts have emergency shutdown capabilities? If not perhaps a system like an emergency exit where glass has to be broken to gain access to shutdown lever/button.
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2 minutes ago, LJ1224 said:
Looks like nothing for Port Talbot again. Fingers crossed everywhere else isn't too bad as I'm due to drive to Scotland next Thursday!
1- 3 cm seems to be the cross model consensus. Euro4 didn't handle Storm Emma as well as Hirlam & ARPEGE, in that Swansea wouldn't of had anything with regards to accumulation charts (had 2cm). I will have to admit it has an uncanny resemblance to 1st March episode (Not as intense though).
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2 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Whats snow?
at best we've had a slight dusting here this winter, absolutely abysmal
I may have brought a snow shield from Tiverton (Devon) where I used to live. Literally nothing settled after the 2013 cold spell, annoying that once you begin to understand the processes of snow it doesn't ever fall much where you live...
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2 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Torrential rain here!
If only it was snow
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
By the way - anyone notice the trend on the ec suite to build a ridge of sorts to our east day 10/11 with the trough stalling ??? Could we do it all again ??? Unlikely ..........
Whatever the outcome, Spring is well and truly struggling to stay afloat for the foreseeable future.
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3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:
72 hours on ECM showing -3 to -6 uppers across the south on Sunday. Sleet rather than snow across the south if this was to happen!
Under cloud after a cold night it would not be as simple you make it out to be. It snowed with 0 850hPa last cold spell.
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10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
With slightly milder air for the south east.... No signs of PPN thouThe ICON - EU as a macro scale model has really impressed me in the last month, the same can not be said about its High Res 7km charts.
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26 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Have a look through the archive thread, some of the NetWx snow depth charts were actually very good. ARPEGE always over-eggs precipitation values, probably why it's near the bottom of the pile when it comes to forecast verification accuracy.
ARPEGE handled Storm Emma accumulation values well, though obviously as mentioned by yourself it likely fared a little worse in other setups in the past. In regards to the verification statistics of the 'High Res Models' (Yourself Posted A Graph A Few Weeks Back), Arome delivered the highest score though seemingly struggled from the 26th (Feb) to 3rd (March).
If ARPEGE continues to be analysed a very crude rule of thumb may potentially be used;
. In a broad precipitation (snow) setup, subtract 1 - 3 cm off the total. 5cm predicted (0z Run 1 March) In Swansea Region, only 2/3cm Fell.
. In a showery setup, conclude a less broad nature to snow accumulations.
. Within 36hr it models well the areas of heaviest snow.
HIRLAM & Euro4 perform consistently also albeit Euro4 having a weakness in North Westerly airflow's.
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7 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:
If this is just a cold snap, cold enough for low level snow mid March, doesn't it put to bed the myth that once the cold and snow are here, it will be harder to shift? Something that was been said on the last cold spell too.
That notion must be put in context through a number of aspects. The first being the synoptics itself, this spell hasn't been modeled as extending for a great period. The background signals have seemingly suggested the likelihood of a limited window. The first cold spell was in fact extended by a day or two as a result of models generally being a little bullish with Storm Emma. The cleanness of the synoptics has also made keeping the cold conditions difficult. Secondly the time of year has to considered, the upcoming spell would likely be extended to the end of next week with very low maxima if in January, though mid march inhibits this.
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Just now, markw2680 said:
The beast part 2 lol, can’t believe we are looking at this again this winter/spring. Wonder if it will be powder drifting stuff again that just blows off the road. Looking at icon think quite a bit of the country will be in for a wack of the stuff
May not be as 'powdery' as the first spell but damn for mid march is will unimaginably powdery.
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:
Yes reviewed it - 6 stages not 7 so 15-20cm scale
Still 18cm plus elevation @1.5x gives the downs about 25-30cm in the sweet spot same as 2009.
Not convinced. We do though need to allow the time range to reduce to allow for greater confidence in the locality and intensity of potential streamers, maybe even a notable trough feature?
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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
20-25cm ^^ in that dark bit over NW Kent ( 7 stages of shading on the scale )
It states 18cm as MAX.
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8 hours ago, JamesL said:
So to the weekend and it looks unseasonably bitter this weekend BUT here in Wales I can't see a whole lot of snow ❄️ especially on the 0z charts this morning as the main upper trough flirts with the SE and S Coast, Normandy and the Channel Islands.
IMO if you're going to have -12 to -14 upper air in MARCH!! (Which is almost unprecedented) you have at least got to make it interesting with some snow.
Our only saving grace would be if the upper trough is going to move north by 100 miles (which is possible as the Scandi high hasn't even formed yet), OR we get some decent solar heating and create our own inland showers (again which is very possible given the strength of the March sun)
So although quite incredible depth of cold is shown for at least 2 days, the synopsis is fairly underwhelming if like me you want some snow.
I do hope I'm proved wrong. I think by the 12z tomorrow we will have firmed up on the details of the upper cold pool and where it will and will not hit.
Right now it looks like Kent could get hit with 10-15cms of snow overnight sat into Sunday and maybe some other southern most counties could scrape a covering.
For Wales I just see a lot of blue skies and sunshine which out of the wind, should feel pleasant on your face despite the temps being only a degree or so above freezing.
Id like to know others thoughts too.
The absence of the upper 500mb low (GFS & Partially UKMO) does seriously inhibit convective potential. The result would be a predominately dry weekend, with flurries limited to the English/Welsh borders.
The Below GFS 6z Show sThe Upper Low Across Northern France (Blue Area).
Skew - T Forecast Sunday 12:00 (Cardiff):
The Dew Point & Temperature signature show at best a partially saturated atmosphere. The highest saturation (Closest Meeting Point) is sounded at a low altitude, showing very shallow convection within the 1000 - 900mb vertical sector (Sea Level - 1000m). Cape (Convective Available Potential Energy) & Lapse Rates being low limit the convection further.
Not all models take the Upper Low as far south as the GFS. ECM & ICON further north with the UKMO a middle ground situation. As a result the Skew - T forecasts would be more promising with regard to inland convection, though NO BIG TOTALS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR WALES (5cm MAX).
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22 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
It feels so warm in the sun today and we have medium uv levels! Sun cream at the ready!
There will be some shocked folk on the weekend, notably Sunday with temperatures 0 - 4 . It will feel around 10 degrees colder by Sunday with some sporadic snow cover across Wales.
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1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:
And of course soil temperatures are higher this time, so less likely to last, well at least down here.
Angle of solar radiation (not sun strength) will limit duration of snow cover. I always question those who say 'Sun strength', not strictly true as reason for seasonal cycles is the angle of incidence.
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13 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
So we've snow starting Sunday and not ending until Monday? I'm no good at reading those charts but that's what it looked like. Some of the snow really heavy too, I have a funny feeling we could see more than the other week.
I say with high confidence that snow totals will be far reduced on the last spell.
Saturday morning should see the introduction of the far colder airmass via a weakening wintry front moving east to west (accelerated form of last night's fax charts). This will herald an introduction into a deeply unstable and showery airstream, providing snow showers to eastern counties through Saturday. These showers will spread well inland by Sunday with nowhere immune from sporadic cover. Also very low confidence for a period of more persistent snow transitioning off the continent Saturday night/Sunday morning. Snow cover may become disruptive locally though no major disruption is currently signalled.
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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Exeter have the day 5 fax as per the ukgm
we saw prior to the last cold spell scandi high formation, that whilst ukmo got to grips with the shortwave dropping south, they initially went with their model day 5 before the following day they adjusted from it at day 5 (whilst the model was still wrong)
It was interesting seeing that divergence between the fax & UKMO in the run up to the last cold spell. The automated forecast temperatures currently suggested for Sunday would suggest against the fax setup, Norwich (3) & Swansea (4). Though I don't want to over analysis and just let the setup evolve.
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2 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:
what would be NICE, would be for this little event to 'stall' and misbehave, wouldn't it?
WHAT WOULD BE NICE IS IF IT HIT SWANSEA!!!!!!!!!
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2 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Still small flakes but just been out and some spots are very patchy whilst other spots the snow is up to the kerb
The snow is a little heavier towards the mumbles side of the city, hence why here on the student village there is actually some minor depth starting to form.
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2 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Some parts of the west have been removed from the amber warning
Not surprised, is a few cm enough for an amber? We are still in though so i think we will see around 5 - 7 cm.
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1 minute ago, Selliso said:
Up north in Trefriw, I have two different forecasts - MetO gives me a snowflake or three this afternoon, Beeb has me buried by midnight. Battle of the higher res models?
Believe Hirlam & Arpege are good for widespread snow, Arome more south west focussed & channel run. MOGREPS?
Window it is then...
Though if you look at the Met Office video forecast it has more snow pushing west into the evening than yesterday so basically stop viewing forecasts and look at radar.
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Just now, PompeyFC said:
Deteks forecast looked like there is to be more snow Friday rather than Thursday evening. Not what met office says
Snow either way!
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1 minute ago, snowy36 said:
Has anyone seen the new ECW charts, there could be another twist in the will it stay cold or get milder . They look very good at keeping us cold. Have a look.
Sensational run, however, likely to be a major outlier within the EPS but definitely something to watch.
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5 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Got about 2 cm in under 10 min
What a shower!!!!
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at best we've had a slight dusting here this winter, absolutely abysmal
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
I'll report those that responded with emoji's
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