MattTarrant
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Posts posted by MattTarrant
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1 minute ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Flurries here
Literally the tiniest flakes isn't it!
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16 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
The front looks very weak, any chance the irish sea will intensify it or are we looking at light snow at best?
Some of the high res models do intensify it a bit as it approaches the west coast, though I just have a nagging feeling I will wake up early to see a very fragmented front. Here's hoping for some luck for once!!
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3 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:
Rain
Unfortunately, being that far west that was meant to be the case.
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24 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Funny when you ask a genuine question in the Mod thread you don’t get an answer..
Anyone in here know?
this chart suggests a
qtr is not appearing. But is this just the result of an operational run that has just rolled out and hasn’t smelt the coffee yet? Or is it gathered from separate data?
TIA
Sorry if I’m straying off topic
No cause for concern, I imagine a quick trop response is a rare occurence anyway. Given cross model support for the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (Ie GFS, ECM, CFS & Glosea) I think it almost irrelevant whether the effects of the downwelling of the 10hPa warming is instant. Even if the lag time is notable, high latitude blocking will still be evident as early as mid to late February. Also ignore anyone who spouts crap about sun strength!
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5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Thanks Steve. Any idea on price?
Cheers
Its expensive, more of a high end budget product. Doubtful you will find it under £100 (Which is basic model). It is very good though, does have good number of parameters it measures. You can also view the temperatures that other models are reading across the country which is very helpful in marginal snow situations for example.
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59 minutes ago, andymusic said:
I'll be honest the latest bbc forecasts going for a more underwhelming outcome for Tuesday, so we shall see who is right very shortly - euro 4 looks good/gfs looks good, yes the front does dissipate but hopefully not before it dumps a few cms/an inch or two on Wales please lol
Its not only the Euro4 that keeps the intensification up a little more, there is a trend within a few of the other high resolution models (HIRLAM & WRF NMM 0.05). Must stress however, that even with these 'improvements' no major accumulations are expected. Pembrokeshire may suffer from the precipitation turning to sleet and even rain on the back edge due to somewhat marginal dew points & 850pha temperature combined with light precipitation. Southern coasts may also suffer from the precipitation turning more sleety but shouldn't be too much of an issue. Overall prediction is for 0.5 - 3cm widely with more slushy accumulation along the pembrokeshire coastline.
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Can we stop arguing about the amount of snow, its getting a little annoying.
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2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
Thank you, do you have the twitter details of the people I should follow?
( My last post on this
)
I suggest following Ian Ferguson. He focuses more on the West country but does represent well what the Met Office are thinking.
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2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:
eh paul?
you can't see anything noteworthy in low res??
whats this? -
its not candy floss!...
I think he means 'High Res'
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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:
Plenty of room on the locals pages they could easily fit a video between Observations and settings
Potentially, just slightly disappointed in changes in general. The more I use the graphics the more I like them, just wish they were at the same scale as before.
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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Video forecasts will continue to be uploaded onto the old website for now http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/
How are they going to integrate the video forecast into the new site though? Its already quite cluttered.
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My honest opinion of the changes;
Forecast Viewing (Symbols & Wind etc): There is a nice fluidity to the viewing approach, the transmission from day to day is clean & crisp. I am however, not a fan of not having all hours view-able at once. It is a pain moving the bar left & right, more so for the hourly slots than the days. The symbols are also too in your face & large (probably why there is a move-able bar). The addition of precipitation chance is welcomed, but unnecessary to give such exact numbers (prefer Met Office's more basic approach to this). Though I do not hate this new setup, it is step back from what it was. The purpose must be to be able to view the forecast in as little hassle as possible, more complicated detail should be left to the host of the data.
14 Day Forecast: Not only is this just a bad idea, having hourly forecasts all the way out is just completely unnecessary. So a BIG FAT NO FOR THIS ADDITION!!!!
Graphic Viewing: New map style and precipitation detail is tremendous (Akin to what Met office use in there video forecasts). The complexity of viewing certain parameters is just a hassle, just provide a clickable link like before to change viewing from local to UK! Also a nice addition would be surface syn-optics viewed through a clickable link.
Video Forecasts: WHATS HAPPENED?!? (Only explanation perhaps could be that they are waiting until new graphics are shown on TV).
Overall conclusion: A lot of unecessary changes.
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We just had snow in Swansea, just saying haha. Temporary dusting, but its horrid out there with strong winds and frequent sleet on and off.
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Showers are naturally unpredictable.
Wales not suitably positioned upon North Westerly (WNW Component Today).
Showers often decay on progress over Ireland.
Notable trough feature would be very helpful.
Upper Air temps still to fall until around midnight, slight increase after in tandem with T2 Temperatures.
HAVE SOME PATIENCE GUYS!!! THE BEST WILL LIKELY BE 8 - 11 PM
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11 minutes ago, andymusic said:
looks a little extreme lol
Simply the 'relatively' low resolution of the GFS.
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3 minutes ago, festivalking said:
Good luck sir! That' a start of a new weather station fund.
Perhaps we can all start a community funded weather station pot, with the money coming from Karlos making weather related bets
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17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
I imagine the 12z will be the most important runs of winter so far
I was just thinking to myself, has any weather organisation ever created a “model” that’s output is a blend of gfs/ecm/ukmo.? Surely wouldn’t be that hard to do, and results would be interesting for 5-10 day period. Would be useful for these situations.
Check this out, blend of almost all numerical weather models.
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2 minutes ago, doctor32 said:
Can't access this for some reason... keep getting Ooops! error page
Scroll down the page & where it says recent blogs you can access it
. First time for such error message!
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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
No clearance of the trough on the GFS 12hrs run with a hangback of low heights nw wards.
Its flatter upstream and only saves itself because the Russian high comes to its aid. Whilst it still delivers because it keeps those lows weak as they approach the UK and they manage to slide it looks like a more complicated and messier outcome with more that can go wrong.
The UKMO is cleaner upstream and has that high ahead of the Canadian low.
I'd much rather this limpet trough could clear as that really increases the chances to lock the cold in and the GFS just looks like an accident waiting to happen.
Accidents can be good...
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Just going to do a quick analysis/overview of the likelihood of snowfall next week, using a series of parameters.
This will focus on; 500mb Heights, 850hpa Temperatures, Dew Point & Dam Air Thickness. Credit for base knowledge goes to; https://ukweather.wordpress.com/weather-guides/basic-snow-forecasting-guide/
All charts are from the GFS at 108hrs.
500mb Heights:
A general rule of thumb is for this to be at or below -27 Degrees Celsius.
That is a tick for essentially all of UK mainland (Approaching -40 in parts).
850pha Temperatures:
For snow to sea level -7 uppers are generally required.
-5 uppers widely across UK mainland (-6 & 7 further north). Sea level snow marginal with highest chances in Scotland & Northern Ireland.
Dew Point:
0c generally needed for snow to settle, marginally above requires substantially heavy falls.
Tick!
Dam Air Thickness:
Generally below the 528 value.
Tick for majority of UK mainland.
Overall Conclusion:
Overall parameters look on the favorable side, with uppers being the most marginal (fine for inland snowfall). A key word of caution though is significant moderation of the boundary layer, due to the large westerly component and resulting larger fetch. This is the cause behind the rather uninspiring 2m Temperatures, hence why snow would seem favorable overnight in contrast to daytime, especially further south. The requirement for heavy precipitation should be stressed, allowing for marked temperature swings during shower cycles.
Temporary settling is possible almost anywhere, especially north of the M4
. Though noteworthy is likely restricted to the North West, Northern Ireland & Scotland (Hence warning out from the Met Office for Northern Ireland & Scotland).
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Just now, Bazray said:
Cant really read the charts, is there any luck for the south west please?
Still too much uncertainty in the exact dominant wind component, this has repercussions on the moderation at the boundary level. Though with the very cold 500mb heights, the more convective showers (Increased updrafts & downdrafts) could see wet snow mixed in almost anywhere. For reading the charts in regard to snow chances cite back to Nick F's detailed post a few pages back.
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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
& suddenly people are rooting for the Scandi high to rebuild yet 24 hours ago they wanted it to slide away....
Generally from those who are less learned in the topic though.
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Below I will attach a selection of links that will hopefully give those keen to learn the science, and how to read the charts of such teleconnections; GWO (Global Wind Oscillation), GAM (Global Angular Momentum), MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation), Mountain Torque etc.
Link to GWO & GAM thread here on netweather where some great discussion that has taken place and does provide useful information to those learning (Like Me):
Link to the Khan Academy, where Angular Momentum is described in simple terms:
This link is for an old piece of research on GAM (1971), so obviously do further research leading on from this with newer papers:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1329%3AGAMBET>2.0.CO%3B2
Below provides access to the GWO that the likes of Catocal/Glacier Point & Tamara use:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html
Madden Julian Oscillation:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care
Lastly a massive thanks to the likes of Catacol/Glacier Point/Tamara whom discuss the above for the rest of the forum's benefit!!
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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:
That’s right but southerly winds for SE Europe drag up warmer air which curve easterly towards us.
I don't agree, the Isolines seems more from SE then SSE direction by 156 hr. Whatever the case its got it 'warming' up. I will side with the UKMO/GEM on this one (I mean no disrespect to you over this
).
qtr is not appearing. But is this just the result of an operational run that has just rolled out and hasn’t smelt the coffee yet? Or is it gathered from separate data?
)
. Though noteworthy is likely restricted to the North West, Northern Ireland & Scotland (Hence warning out from the Met Office for Northern Ireland & Scotland).
).
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Major cold developing over the continent on the control run, not for a while have I seen uppers that low (-24) close to the UK!