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MattTarrant

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    Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2016/17

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattTarrant

    From viewing the snowfall records at Mammoth Mountain this year will likely be a record breaker. According to the 'Los Angeles Times' the first four months of the 2009/2010 season they received 307 inches of snow, that is 42 inches less than this current season. It must also be noted that the lower base depth is extremely high this season. According to Mammoth Mountain Twitter Page January was the snowiest month on record with 20 feet of snow falling....yikes!

    Link to 'Los Angeles Times':    http://www.latimes.com/travel/la-tr-mammoth-mountain-july-fourth-20170211-story.html

    Link to Mammoth Mountain Historical Snow Records: http://www.onthesnow.co.uk/california/mammoth-mountain-ski-area/historical-snowfall.html?&y=2009&q=base

    A lovely picture of a snow bank from 31st of Jan :)

     

    Mammoth Mountain.PNG

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Well according to the GEFS we should right off the rest of Winter after this weekend - shocking for coldies. For me this has been worse than the last few as I've expected something good!!  

    If it wasn't for this weekend I think I'd take a week off model viewing. 

    I kind of hope somehow the models are overdoing the effect of the phase 1 signal of the MJO but somehow even my hopeful side of me is becoming slightly dejected. 

    Not that I will right of any further chances of cold weather but its looking like if there will be then it will likely happen early to mid March at best. 

    Lets just list of some of the bad luck we have had this winter;

    . Background telecommunications looked promising for November especially, failed to deliver with blocking too far south. December followed a similar vain (Roughly).

    . The Northerly/North Westerly outbreak a few weeks back failed to deliver any serious goods. Mostly due to the fact the cold failed to undercut properly that troublesome feature that produced some snow for the South East.

    . This easterly outbreak (I was under no illusion that it was never going to be historic or particularly memorable) but even when troughing develops on Saturday it looks like a slightly milder air will push dew points just the wrong side of marginal (especially for more eastern areas). Then the retrogression signal of 2-3 days ago has seemingly been scuppered by the unwelcomed phase 1 signal.

    How's are luck?    

     

     

     

    Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the Dew points and surface temperatures I think most low lying areas will only see sleet, or wet snow in any 'heavier' bursts. Places above 150/200m metres may see 1-2 cm where above 250 I would say 3-4 cm. This is obviously only an opinion and it will come down to nowcasting and a bit of luck! Looking at current Precipitation charts I would say the Cotswold's would be a favoured place, though the current track will be open to change in the next 24 - 36 hours. (This is for Saturday)

    Overall from the 3 days where precipitation will likely be wintry the North York Moors will get at least 1-2 cm. 

    Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    The 6z completely loses the plot at the end - dropping the vortex back to Greenland, and spinning up some big Atlantic lows. Best chuck that in the bin for now, completely different to everything else we've seen recently. With the second SSW due, I don't think the models are really going to know what's going on (much like this spell that appeared out of the ether of endless zonal weather a while back).

    I would somewhat agree with you, the handling of the lows is poor from around 120h. For those of you who want a GFS commentary the Metcheck did one this morning.  

    Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:


    Apologies for the IMBY-natured post.. but what areas can expect to see snow if the 18z was correct? Some saying rain/sleet inland, others saying snow.

     

    From seeing the dew points on Saturday I think most inland areas will see some snow, though I think by the middle of the day it will be wetter in nature (Wet Snow below 100m) than through the early morning. There are other factors regarding the complexities of snow forecasting so best messaging a more experienced member. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattTarrant

    11 minutes ago, Nouska said:

    Very briefly as I'm not at home for all the desktop links. An animation of the 200 hPa stream function (jet stream level) of the different phases of the MJO. The little phase 'clock' (top right) shows the heights building over eastern Canada and Greenland as the 'hand' passes through phase 8 -1.

    wh04_psi200.gif

    http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html

    That's a very rough interpretation as it is not a fixed entity - depends on season and amplitude as well as Kelvin waves and tropical cyclone activity.

     

     

    Many thanks for that Nouska, ironically I was just on that website like an hour ago. I didn't get to the bottom of the page....many thanks anyway. I guess I just want to learn the physics behind it, but then not many people understand it fully so I might have to wait somewhat longer for the chances to try and get a better grasp on it.   

    Fascinating stuff though!

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I was just wondering if anyone has the time to briefly outline why the MJO moving into phase 8 could promote greater amplification, or at least on a rough scale what impacts it has on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric profile? I see people posting these MJO charts, but would like some explanation behind it please? I have tried doing some research in to it but I think it might require the summer when away from College to do that. Any response would be much welcomed :)

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattTarrant

    5 minutes ago, on the coast said:

    Matt and his tweets are becoming a bit of a joke really. He really should stop with his knee jerk reactions.

    I wouldn't say that, but as Nick says i don't quite get his tweet. I find some of Matt's tweet as overly simplistic, the undertone of that tweet is completely different to what he was pointing out in the Synoptic blog here on Netweather. He seemed quite confident of Pressure rising over Greenland area so :cc_confused: but I respect it is just a reaction to one set of ENS so maybe we our over thinking?

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

    So rather than declare the original post as having 'stupid comments' why didn't you just report the post in question and let the site team look at it, like we've advised on countless occasions?......posts criticising other members posts as 'stupid' don't help anyone in the thread

    Well it might stop them posting those kind of comments again, but I digress and apologise for not reporting it. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    I just don't believe our cold block will be displaced as easily as the Gfs shows..I would take what is being shown beyond Sunday with a large pinch of salt!

    This I believe, and this in turn has a domino effect on the rest of the run. Because the block is being eroded too quick in my eyes there is a lack of ridging towards Greenland, even when the Azores high tries ridging up it is flattened and ends up forming the Euro Slug again. The Northerly showing in late FI on the 6z has been pushed east, the models have been overdoing the influence of the Atlantic for large parts of this winter and is the reason its pushed further east. (Only my personal beliefs of the issues with the progression of this run). 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    By day 10 it would definitely feel like spring...some actual warm uppers spreading northwards along with it. Best to keep an open mind and not discount anything. Anyway, I'm still of the opinion any warm up will be fairly brief, even if the first Greenland high attempt fails

    gfsnh-0-240.png?12

    All in all I agree. The Atlantic is still fairly static but we are kind of in no man's land aren't we by 264h on this run. 

    Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Some unsavoury attitudes towards Warren on here this afternoon...Not nice to see given he's only commenting on this run & what he sees infront of him. Reminiscent of some of the crap that has been thrown at me for going against expectations in the past. It was obvious early on when it started aligning to the ECM around days 5/6 that it would be more of a slog to get heights to Greenland (not to say it's impossible on this run, mind).

    I apologise if I seem rude, but according to some people on this forum we might as well book a summer break for next week.  

    • Like 8

    Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattTarrant

    8 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    I would also like to put a positive slant on things. When we were looking at the SSW all the comments were based on even if it does have an effect on the trop it could be the last 3rd of February that sees any cold response.......well it's only the 6th today and look at what we are facing.

    Im not even saying this is to do with the SSW it may be just a bit of luck for a change but this is out of the blue and with the MJO plus a forecasted negative AO and the warming as well as very low sunspot activity (to name a few) this could just be the start of a long and at times very cold spell.

    Even if it is a slow burner in terms of snow at least the ground will be nice and cold ready for any decent snow that may fall over the next few weeks :-)

    All of this plus the Meto on side that this cold spell could last most of February is all very positive in my eyes.

    I was having a tour of the Met Office on Saturday and asked one of the qualified Meteorologists if this Scandinavian High is the result of the SSW. He said it is highly likely, though I wouldn't trust him as much as the operational team meteorologists though.

    • Like 1
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