MattTarrant
-
Posts
427 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by MattTarrant
-
-
31 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:
How would you guys say this looks? Skellingthorpe, Lincolnshire
Does look quite shallow to me, though if the CAP breaks a storm could develop in as little as 20 mins so its knife edge stuff.
-
Got to 30.1 so far according to my Netatmo Weather Station
-
8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
If there's reporting station in the right place, though.
There is recording station at Filton which is around there, however, may be more in the 33/34 region
-
Still 25 degrees... I feel a bad night sleep coming
-
1
-
-
Just done a quick analysis on the both the peak and scope of warmth by the following 4 models; NAVGEM, GEM, ARPEGE & GFS.
NAVGEM:
This is the most widespread in terms of heat and peak of temperatures. It is suggesting the possibility of 32 being reached for both Sunday, Monday & Tuesday. Highest Temps slowly transferring west by Tuesday.
ARPEGE:
Showing the possibility of 30 being reached around the London Area on Sunday (Usual Places like: Heathrow, Northolt & Kew Gardens). It will be widely 25 - 28 on both Sunday & Monday for southern areas (Including areas of the South West, Midlands & Wales).
GEM:
Likelihood of 29 being reached, once again around the London area. Monday being the warmest day.
GFS:
28 being the warmest on Monday around the Southampton area, widely 24 -26 from the North Midlands South.
Personal Prediction:
ARPEGE most likely, as it ties in with BBC (Met Office) predictions, NAVGEM most likely overcooking temps (But not out the question), GFS underplaying temperatures a little, especially in peak terms.
ECM would also likely produce around the 30 degree mark.
-
5
-
-
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Somewhat warmer Ecm next week is an understatement, the Ecm is a scorcher next week, especially further south..fingers crossed!
As Nick F mentioned in his excellent blog, the GFS 6z run was showing signs of following the ECM. In short its not quite as keen on the retrogression of the high, however, given ECM and some lukewarm support from the Met Office I am somewhat wary of the GFS.
-
A little bit of Alto Cas drifting by
-
4
-
-
I think we missed it.... Like what?!?
-
19 minutes ago, Sam Whitfield said:
Need a decent thunderstorm down here in the SW. Last chase i was on down here was back in 2015. I think it is time! Any help would be appreciated.
To be fair, for the South West Quadrant it looks like storms may erupt in the small hours (ie 3/4 in the morning) perhaps lasting to around 7/8 in the morning. Destabilisation of the trough is also not nailed down with capping being an issue.
For late Sunday/Sunday evening thundery action looks more likely the further east you travel.
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:
What did you mean by a whole different ball game for Saturday afternoon, in terms of what, could u clarify a bit please :)?
Saturday afternoon has a wider potential in terms of convective action. The instability runs NNE/NE during the day and may combine with respectable levels of CAPE (1500 +) to produce some impressive potential. The issue is as ever the cloud amounts, thus the level of diurnal heating achieved. A safe bet would be to say Midlands north. The attached image shows the CAPE values, East Anglia may have the highest values but as always depends on whether capping is broken. Using Sounding's closer to the time will help.
-
38 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
I think it comes down to the fact that the models still don't like it when there is any Northern Blocking in the forecast, creates a lot of uncertainties in the modelling.
I think it has much to do with the interaction with the strong jet stream overhead. The extent of upper air divergence and thus low level divergence is making the area of very heavy precipitation difficult to forecast. 'Wavey' fronts are notoriously hard to forecast, especially when there is such humid & moisture laden air involved!
-
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
when is the Netweather summer forecast out?
I would think 1st June, the only one I can find is the 2012 one which was published on that date.
-
1 minute ago, SnowJoke said:
Showers forming even though cloudy, is likely to be the higher ground, Quantock hills forcing development.
Perhaps, yet the cell that went overhead here developed on the Leeward side of Dartmoor.
-
Had Massive Drops from the shower passing over Tiverton, Devon from a rapidly developing shower!
Interesting though as there has been little if any sunshine here at all.
-
9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
That's strange, the outlook from Exeter is becoming much colder with blustery wintry showers and night frosts..13c sounds a bit optimistic to me.
13 is for London, majority of places will around 8/9
-
30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
It looks like the peak of the 'cold' will be around the middle part of next week towards the bank holiday weekend and into May temperatures begin to recover though this is to be expected given the time of year
The beebs long range forecast last night said it probably won't feel too cold inland next week with the strong sunshine but along the north sea coast it will be colder where your exposed to the wind
Next week the GFS is showing for Wednesday that temperatures will max at about 6/7 widely (Perhaps scraping 10 in the South East). With a steady northerly breeze it will be feel relatively cold.
-
1
-
-
18 minutes ago, Eugene said:
Lets hope it's right frosty, don't think active weather fans could take more HP boredom after what has seemed like it has lasted an eternity, if ECM is wrong the model after many failed attempts recently has some serious issues.
It was not frosty, yet this statement needs some backing!!
-
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:
Indeed, the unsettled weather next week is downgrading compared to what was shown as recently as yesterday and now, high pressure is making a comeback. In the meantime, enjoy the nice warm / very warm weekend ahead across the southern half of the uk.
So much so that it is Met Office's belief (through BBC week ahead forecast) that high pressure will be dominant next week with low pressure's riding over the top of the high pressure. So in essence continuing to be settled in the south and changeable in the north.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:
Darren Bett on news 24 sounds quite bullish showing 23c for the south on sunday, a lot higher than the 17/18c on the Gfs 12z.
Is that not the exception rather than the rule?
-
Just now, Frosty. said:
Well, the Gfs 12z doesn't look bad at all regarding next week, especially further south with high pressure generally in control and following a brief dip in temperatures early next week, it becomes much milder / pleasant across the south.
Yes very much so, high pressure is always influencing southern portions of the UK at least. As to people saying GFS is woefully underplaying temps is not really correct. I think in a generalist prospective I think temperatures will be widely 18/19 with the south east more like 19/20. BBC only has London reaching 20 so its not 'woeful'! The ECM is similar in style to GFS but instead deepens a low to the south of Iceland by early Wednesday, the differential between the high pressure cell and the Scandinavian trough is much more defined leading to a greater gradient and thus a stronger NW flow, yet the ECM then brings the high in more centrally so who knows?
-
11 hours ago, katemart said:
Afraid not. But I shall be listening loyally on Radio Solent. Sing up, boys and girls! Have a wonderful day, everyone xxx
I'm afraid i'm at work....I hope they have it on live though!!! COYS!
-
12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
18z has a slight downgrade on the top wind speeds (still a significant storm for central parts)
No offence to you, but the GFS has seemed reluctant on bringing more widespread gales across the country. The Hi - Res Models like Arome & Arpege have been set on bringing widespread 50 - 60mph with occasional above and the stronger phase of widely 70mph maybe 80mph. This ties with the Met Office.
-
28 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Much better 12z with the removal of lots of PV (purple) to our North and a decent Atlantic ridge - this would follow the earlier GFS I reckon.
Interesting to see what has caused the GFS to not follow the last couple of runs, it looks like the ridging is just flattened to quickly in my eyes. Maybe though it was responding to the MJO phase 8 - 1 to quickly but interesting to see.
Whatever the reasons behind it not following the last few runs, it is safe to say it not a run for the coldies of this forum. Though not exactly warm either, maybe a decent diurnal range.
-
12 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Hello sir, hello sir!!!
Hello sir, hello sir once again! Could be a trend to keep an eye on. 324h on 6z...
...
-
1
-
Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
There are meant to be several areas of initiation linked with the varying features of the setup.