MattTarrant
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Posts posted by MattTarrant
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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Interesting that - I think I'm right - Heathrow did not increase on 33C between 11am and 12pm.
33.7
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Now saying 38c...
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38.3c, Kew Gardens, Thursday
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3 minutes ago, Singularity said:
Hmm... FV3 18z came a lot closer than the 12z did to the ECM 12z / ICON 18z solution, but didn’t split the trough cleanly enough or have the additional trough into the N Atlantic come into play fast enough.
The mere presence of adjustments closer to it from even the furthest away of the models on the 12z cycle is noteworthy. The ECM outcome doesn’t look quite as much of a wildcard now, especially after those very interesting points from Tamara.
Trough deconstruction - the buzzword of the next few days...?
ECM-style outcome now at 20% odds in my mind. Yikes.
More a phrase than a word no?
No on a serious note both the FV3 and Legacy attempt to deconstruct the trough ECM style. Regarding the N Atlantic trough it seems relevant to notice that the ECM 12z was more amplified initially allowing for the newfoundland trough to aid the pattern transition.
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23 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
Day 8, slack southerly with 850s up to 23c. Probably the closest we will get to a chart capable of producing 40c in the UK.
Raw ECM data shows 36 at 1:00 PM next Friday...So only imagine the peak temp...
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Interest is growing in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days as an unconventional system is forecasted to develop into a cyclone, the National Hurricane Center predicts an 80% chance of formation in the 5 day range. Uncertainty prevails but a tropical storm or weak hurricane is likely to be situated towards the Louisiana/Texas border by Friday/Saturday.
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The ECMWF is introducing a substantial upgrade to its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) today (12z run). This is a notable update and includes several fundamental changes. Key changes include:
. Improved continuous data assimilation (Ensemble of Data Assimilation (EDA) Increased from 25 to 50)
. Wave model changes (New parametrizations for wind input & deep water dissipation of waves)
. 3D aerosol climatology replaces 2D climatology.
. Minor updates/improvements to convection & radiation scheme
Appreciable improvements include 1 - 5% reduction in upper air and 0.5 - 2% surface parameters errors in the extra tropics.
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26.2°C, Kew Gardens
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5 minutes ago, andymusic said:
Snow most likely above 200m, but to lower levels in heavy showers
Two trough features were on the fax charts, so not out question to see an area of organised showers push through. It's interesting to note a subtle difference between the ECM/GFS Vs UKMO regarding 850hpa temps, the former's have them 1/2 lower. However, at best a transient cover at low levels anyway.
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17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
When it was announced that FV3 would replace the GFS, there were some PowerPoint presentations on its performance on the NOAA website. Which, annoyingly, I now can't find (probably due to the shutdown). Anyway, although in most areas performance was better than GFS, I'm pretty sure it said one area were it was poorer was in the stratosphere.
Slide 51 comments on stratospheric errors .
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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Decent UKMO at 144, nice sharpening of the trough near Greenland, heights trying to build to the N or the UK.
Not quite as sharp as the ECM 0z but an excellent effort, 8/10.
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1 hour ago, Penicuikblizzard said:
It was predicted late December before then New year, then mid January soon it’ll be February they don’t have a clue simple as that
Your the one that doesn't have a clue. It's not exactly new musings that the reversal (not really the warming) at 60hpa in the stratosphere was gradually pushed backed in time, with modelling being somewhat progressive in that nature. The 1st/2nd is almost guaranteed now as the reversal date. The Met Office, draw conclusions from an accumulation of model data, with even the best insight in the world it is impossible to predict that the models were being progressive. There is also an issue as to the extent of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, ie the extent of downwelling. The models have been loosely trending to a more -NAM setup with lower u values in the 100 - 300hpa region (see ECM), though there is still considerable uncertainty in this region. Now watch, in conjunction with the stratospheric plots, the extent of anomalous heights across the pole region as to a rough guide to the extent of downwelling.
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19 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Yes I have read through it and understood some parts, it would be good to see a bunch of charts showing an SSW event taking place in a few brief steps. I know the reality is more complex but often a string of simple diagrams can make everything click. Is it possible to get a chronology of an SSW event through synoptic charts for example or something along those lines, highlighting the basic steps of the process?
e.g. for the Feb 2018 SSW event this first happens to give signs an SSW event was imminent
then we saw warming of the temperatures in the troposphere
this is how it propogates down to the surface
and this is how it results in an easterly.
etc.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2584%3ATLCOTN>2.0.CO%3B2
This research paper could be of use .
Cheers
Matt
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18 minutes ago, Benvironment said:
Genuinely unsettling. I'm a little worried now tbh, if it accumulates to any thickness.
Well this is an example from my families home in south west England back in March when the freezing rain was very serious. Be careful.
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1 minute ago, Benvironment said:
There's a weird clicking noise outside as the rain hits. Doesn't sound like the usual hail or sleet.....and there is definitely ice on every surface. Alarming how quickly it has appeared. Folk will definitely get caught out in this.
That's why people complaining about an amber warning will likely look silly...
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7 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:
ICON 18Z also still not going for a snow event, with snow restricted to the summits/ peaks of Wales and Northern England, we still need further upgrades, because I personally can't see anything which indicates a substantial risk of a snow event.
'ICON (13km)' DOES NOT EQUAL ICON - EU (7km).
Uncertain as to whether the model physics are the same (ie Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic), though the vertical and horizontal resolution are appreciably different.
ICON (13km) = 60 Vertical Layers
ICON - EU (7km) = 90 Vertical Layers
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5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:
The control & Op are run at the same resolution I believe
The control run is run at a lower resolution but has no adjustments made to the raw data (same as GFS Op).
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27 minutes ago, crimsone said:
Apparently there was an upper level low near florida feeding it dry air, or so Brendan says.
In any case, the sheer size of this storm, as well as a very unusual direction for landfall in this area, still makes this a very very dangerous hurricane.
People tend to forget that the wind difference between Cat 3 and Cat 5 is primarily the intensity of a comparatively small area in the middle of the storm (and of course, potentially a difference in size, surge, etc....). If you're in the path of the eye, that's a pretty important difference... but for the vast majority of those affected by a hurricane falling onto a large landmass, it's the wider winfield that matters, and this thing is huge.
In addition, it's huge, which means that, as it's coming towards the land directly from the sea (not skirting land at an oblique angle as per usual), it's pushing a considerable surge with it. It's also taking all that rain, and dumping it over land...so not only do you get 20 inches under the area of the CDO, but you get 15 inches around that area, and 10 inches further out from that.... basically, it dumps a biblical amount of rain, and then a slightly less biblical amount of rain just beyond that, saturating the ground, giving it nowhere to drain, and filling rivers from both ends.
Even as a Category 2, Florence is pretty darned nasty.An upper tropospheric (250mb) low fed some dry air but also led to shear on the southern side of Florence. This was mentioned in the recent NHC discussion, recent imagery however from the GOES - 16 shows very cold cloud tops now on the southern side. However, early land interaction seems to be limiting this from wrapping around the eyewall, thus intensity probably won't change much despite the high ocean heat content available to Florence
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19 hours ago, Iceberg said:
Yes strictly. On the below they are saying at 2pm thur she will be a cat 4. Over the next 24hrs from that she will be sat approx 3-4 miles off shore as a cat 3.
But you have to remember the eye is currently 30 miles across and the hurricane winds 100 miles. The eye wall will be 5-10 miles out from the edge of the eye.
So for all purposes Wilmington for example will have 24 hrs of cat 4 winds before the hurricane slows down to only 100kts before the centre reaches the coast.
I’ll be honest, looking At this I would expect 70-80% of the city of Wilmington to be destroyed.
The UKMO reflects the comments you made about damage to Wilmington, I don't think with modern building codes damage will be quite to the extent you mention, but serious damage nonetheless!
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4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:
T numbers have just gone to 6.3. And 6.4.
7.0 is a clear cat 5.
Out of interest, where do you find these?
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17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
But signs also of salvation. Stall another 50 miles and it doesn't hit
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1 hour ago, Iceberg said:
Gfs ops 12z has joined the other models on a us mainland hit. This time around New York/Long Island.
It then does a 360 loop, back down , gains some strength and goes pass again.
Not the final solution imho.
I am personally going for a North Carolina hit, out of gut and nothing else.
Re Bermuda it should pass just to the south. With a bit of luck the small size should mean that Bermuda escapes any real affects.
The Latest ECM confirms this development (at least within the operationals) that landfall is increasingly likely, indeed a major hurricane as well
Edit: Beat me to it
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Tropical Depression 10
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Tropical Depression 10 has formed in the central tropical Atlantic and is forecast to move WNW/NW. Forecasted to be close to the Northern Leeward Islands by Friday as a #hurricane. The average (1981-2010 climatology) date for the 4th Atlantic hurricane is September 21 (@Philip Klotzbach).