[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS with an apparent early shift towards the earlier euros at 96 hours. Less force on the block, better orientated blocking and LP disrupting better

 

Aye, soon goes wrong thereafter though.

And now its stuck, sheeeesh!!!! 

Very slow coming out but its not going to be a good run imho, over to ukmo which will hopefully keep the faith

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

17 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

And to add further to that, the previous update to the EC32 didn't have much of a mean -AO signal at all for week 2 and 3

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Are the FAX Charts out yet, crucial they look nothingvlike gfs at 96 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

FAX charts will be interesting tonight

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Gfs 18z pretty much same as 12z!!!not moved towards the ecm and ukmo yet!!

Huge differences as early at 96 shaky, GFS much deeper and further east with the atlantic.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I think that is probably the  best chart of the day.

Yipppppeeeee winter here we come you have been missed 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Stunning ecm if your midlands northwards, could do with a correction south with the slider, certainly no further north

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

One thing is for sure.....the euro slug has been well and truly stamped on! 

Yup someone is about to empty a big sack of salt across Europe

Excellent trends this evening for coldies, now ECM, you can do it

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Yep, thats one humdinger of a block on UKMO this evening.

The jets going one way from there, surely.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

GFS looking much better longer term - huge improvement on the 6z with the jet sinking and sinking.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Ohhhh im liking UKMO this evening.Shirley an undercut will follow on from 144..

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

It is the Moan/ramp/banter thread, What more would you expect. Especially from Knocker 

No worries PM.

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

yep... knocker is well known for his dry sense of humour, hence that post you quoted was clearly a joke, the joke being it was @ 372.  it was no a serious post.

We'll agree to disagree then.

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

it was a joke....

 

Sorry my sides are splitting.

Seriously?

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

"The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated"

European High Pressure

Yup,lets pluck a chart from 372 hours, excellent.

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

and EC EPS extended effectively going for a Canadian Warming, with good support from the deterministic at day 10.

Wave 1 activity is going to be pretty relentless now for the next 2 weeks minimum, which should continue the displacement. This signals a particularly toxic period for our upper vortex.

Fingers crossed GP the clock is starting to tick now if we are to see this wretched vortex brought down or at very least displaced somethings going to have to start happening soonish

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bartlett? deep FI but still hints of higher pressure

Erm, no.Nothing like a Bartlett.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Everything going north east on the gfs!!!u cant help but feel the 12zs this evening are gona probably make or break on this!!!siding with the gfs on this one!!could be wrong!!

Its an awful run shaky, a lot more rain and the Jet just blows the block back east.

 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Huge block to the NE at 1055nb on gfs06z, getting owned by that Atlantic jet.

Not going to look anything like ECM i feel.

Nope just looks wet, with the odd frost thrown in .

Hope thats not right!

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Great post blue, FI obviously is really quite early at the moment.

As you say, the ecm mean at day 8 and 9 is encouraging-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.html

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Agreed Nick.:)

ECM is without doubt the torch bearer for us coldies this morning.

The stamps at 120 show the uncertainty but to my eye the control & o look very similar up to that (crucial) point.

Im going to remain positive that at the very least we will see the jet kicking that horrid euro slug pig into touch,then all bets are off .

 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

13 hours ago, Carlrg said:

 

Ali ECM is showing snow across much of the Uk this morning.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

13 hours ago, Carlrg said:

 

Excellent ECM this morning-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

Showing trough disruption as the block forces the jet SE into Europa.

Snow potential across the UK as last !!!

On the other side of the coin GFS is not great.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Im VERY HAPPY with the ECM this evening., 

Blocking high to the NE and the jet is going one way, some frigid cold across Europa, bring it on!!

 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Hope it dont breasties verticus now!!!

Can the low dive,please low dive LOL