Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

northwestsnow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    14,146

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    26

 Content Type 

Posts posted by northwestsnow

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by northwestsnow

    4 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Rather depends on what cheers you up but I doubt it.

    Anyway the ecm is treating the low Monday completely differently to the gfs. It takes the main deep low up to Iceland and has another low forming mid Atlantic which nips along ENE to be centred over Stornoway at 06z Tuesday. Possibly some strong winds in the southern quadrant but it's a bit academic as I'm sure this analysis will change in the next day or two.

    Have you seen the full ECM?

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Mucka said:

     

    Yes the signal for any MLB or HLB that would drag in any cold polar air to our shores is very muted but the signal for some form of cold zonality is much stronger.

    As you say cold zonal flow generally has a southerly tracking jet so hopefully that will erode the Euro high but all so far out.

    Currently I would say the second half of December will of more interest tot hose in the North and with some elevation than the South but this pattern is still developing and more changes likely.

    I think thats a very reasonable post mucka. No sign of any major blocking where we want (Greenland or Scandinavia),but enough amplication to force the jet further south in the longer term. :)

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by northwestsnow

    20 hours ago, Mucka said:

     

    Look at the amplification upstream, particularly over Canada, that is what Crew is referring to I believe.

    As previously stated we can't predict we would get a cold spell from that sort of set up but it would definitely put us in the game for blocking second half of Dec.

    Interestingly the ECM control looks very cold and snowy as we hit mid December.

    If nothing else a block over Canada may well promote a more SE trajectory of the lows spinning towards the UK medium term.Hopefully starting the demise of that horrid Euro high!

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Again tentative sign's,  however sign's nonetheless of large lobe vortex being syphoned eastwards heading towards mid month. 

    The ecm will most likely play consistent on its evolution. With hopefully pressure rises becoming a prominent evolution at base point of Greenland. 

    Then its a matter of cross model divulge. 

    ECH1-216.gif

    ECM1-216.gif

    Look at that Euro high though, i can't see much hope for anything in the cold category until that huge positive anomaly disappears. :(

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    In terms of the ECM if theres to be any chance at all of developing a colder ne/e flow for the UK then the low pressure circled red has to verify and dig further south, you also want to see this more elongated. This effects any ridging ahead of it, you can correlate what the high will do with what this low does. Its still a longshot because trying to get the jet cutting back in towards the UK  at T216 and T240hrs from  ne to sw rather than nw to se is always like pulling teeth in these set ups.

     

    Given that the rest of the outputs are a recipe for insomnia then its really only tonights ECM that's of any interest to those looking for something colder. I should stress its a longshot , we'll see in the morning whether the pre Christmas miracle is a possibility.

     

    attachicon.gifECH1-192.gif

    I was thinking the high to the north east might act so a to deflect the low pressure towards the UK and allow some Atlantic retrogression nick :)

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The ecm is cooking up some pretty wet weather next weekend starting 00z Saturday with a deep low Iceland and associated fronts Ireland. This is rapidly followed by another system winging in from the SW bringing some very wet weather  to the south. And a couple of days later yet another system arrives bringing wet and windy weather to all.

    Yes the reliable timeframe offers more wind and rain across the models this morning with some vigorous systems sweeping across the Atlantic destination UK.

    Again GFS wants to shut down the conveyor in FI, i'm seeing a trend to something more seasonal as we get to mid December with the jet taking a more southerly track, certainly GFS has been hinting at this over the last day or two. :)

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I wrote this yesterday morning vis the gfs run and it will sum this morning's as well. This morning's gfs run is a classic example of a very mobile NW/SW flow featuring the interplay between the Pm and Tm airmasses via systems travelling ENE to the north and the HP to the SW/SE. A couple of thickness charts within the ten day period to illustrate the point for a change Although there are periods of quite strong winds, mainly confined to the north, there is nothing that looks too drastic at the moment but of course in this  mobile pattern this could change quite quickly.

    Charts courtesy weatherbell

    GFS still toying with some sort of North westerly in FI knocker but ECM again is flat as the proverbial this morning.

    Have to say the amount of rain round the north west in particular is gruesome, we really need some respite up here.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Ecm 00z and other suites/models painting another rather dismal outlook in the reliable time frame with regards to cold prospects with a continuation of euro heights, not to mention an AH.  Still, Eire looks like copping the worst of any wet and windy weather over the forecast period.

    Yes ECM is pretty horrid for coldies again this morning with a +NAO dominating right out to day 10 and probably beyond.

    GFS looks better in FI with the high retrogressing towards Greenland :)

×
×
  • Create New...