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Everything posted by SxK
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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
SxK replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Not wishing to be mean but I am not seeing why BBC are saying there will be storms. Models almost all exclusively show a dry night. Would love to be proved wrong but I am wondering if the BBC forecasts are based on the 12Z models which were more promising. 18Z are bone dry. -
Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter
SxK replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Timings just slightly out on UKMO Gav, they both come out an hour earlier than you indicated above -
The end of an era. A huge loss to NW but do hope you post again from time to time. All the best in your new job
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Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....
SxK replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Do not be surprised if the midlands ends up being too far north. Models frequently overdo the northward extent of PPN. M4 corridor could be the sweet-spot. -
South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 19th February 2013
SxK replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Radar picking up something in the estuary. Early surprise? :-)- 774 replies
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winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.
SxK replied to Coast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
GFS shifts heights a good 75-100miles further south than 06z upto +72. Not a good picture if you want to see anything other than a dusting in the extreme E & SE. -
Hurricane Sandy
SxK replied to Somerset Squall's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
One to watch. Not only for Jamaica/Cuba but also once it clears Cuba. ECM has this turning towards and smashing into the eastern seaboard as a sub 940mb LP. GFDL/GFS take it out to sea fortunately but forecasters shall be watching this very closely indeed. NHC are saying: THE INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AFTER THE CYCLONE EMERGES NORTH OF CUBA. WHILE ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG SHEAR OVER SANDY...THEY ALL ALSO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND AN INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO BARCLINIC ENERGY FROM INTERACTION WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT SANDY WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE PROCESS. THAT BEING SAID...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE ACTUALLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. -
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012
SxK replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Boar - super post - very objectively put and also very helpful for all on the forum to learn a thing or two. -
18z are a downgrade for snow across the board.
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London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 12
SxK replied to kold weather's topic in Regional
Light snow in Billericay -
London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 8
SxK replied to kold weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Keep the faith BLUNT. We will have at least 10cm here in Billericay :-). Radar looks solid, lots of heavy snow to come -
Model Discussion Thread - January 13th
SxK replied to LomondSnowstorm's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
CV the promise as you call it was at t240 a few days ago and is gradually coming into the reliable. Ecm has maintained the trend GFS is moving closer with this evenings runs. -
Model Discussion Thread - January 13th
SxK replied to LomondSnowstorm's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cold not moving further away. It was at t192 last night now t168. -
Meto have just widened the yellow alert for wind in southern England to include London and Southern Essex.
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- severe gales
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The last strong winds in the south may have been gale force but they are forecast to be stronger tonight. The south hasnt had many wind events in recent times, I work in Insurance and have access to the Met Office commercial data on this and have checked back through the records. Latest model update suggesting sustained winds in East Anglia tonight of 45-50knots. That could produce 60-70mph gusts so the lack of a warning is ridiculous. The good thing about the low pressure system is that the winds will pass through quickly and will not be sustained at strength for too long, hopefully that will minimise damage to property.
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Very surprised at the new warnings from Meto particularly for southern UK. Only yellow warnings for parts of Western/Southern Wales and then the southerly counties of England. Expected to see most of southern England under at least yellow warning with southern most counties under amber warning. NMM high res model showing gale force winds into most of southern England, not just the southern counties. These are the highest forecast wind speeds i have seen for southern England in several years.
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Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January
SxK replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I actually think 18z has huge potential past 300. Heights into Scandi with amplified jet! Anyway as you say unlikely to verify but thats the sort of thing i am looking for to spark an eventual change to cold. -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012
SxK replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes for those looking for snow this is perhaps the biggest hurdle. If as Chio puts it we need a few waves to knock over our sandcastle then by the time we get favourable strat conditions that impact our weather pattern we could be nearing March. I am not particularly enthusiastic about a canadian HP nor with the projected warming, time will tell but those expecting to see dramatic changes in the model output are sadly going to be disappointed. Without a SSW a lot of patience going to be required- 1,324 replies
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- stratosphere
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London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread
SxK replied to Osbourne One-Nil's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Snowing in Billericay, Essex -
Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December
SxK replied to kold weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The trend towards these heights northwest are probably due to more favourable forecasts for the NAO and AO. Will be interesting to see whether UKMO maintains the theme tonight -
Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November
SxK replied to kold weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think it is also worth noting that just a few days ago NAO was forecasted to go negative. Models are struggling at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November
SxK replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Im not so sure thats what GP is hinting at.. A Finland based High is not a Euro High like that we have had recently. A Finnish High is much further north and might allow an easterly flow to develop. I personally think this is unlikely in the short to medium term but i can see this happening in the longer term (2-3 weeks). CFS has hinted at this in recent runs. -
The 3 Counties And East Anglia Spring Weather Discussion
SxK replied to Cookie's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Correct hence the warnings for snow. GFS 06z still suggests front will be largely rain but NAE 06z goes with a major snow event for all areas north of London. There is still clear indecision amongst the models but this is where a human forecast comes into its own. Listen out for the Met Office warnings which should be updated shortly and then you will have a better idea. This is likely to be a nowcast/radar watch event. -
Invest Thread
SxK replied to kold weather's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
I am in Kissimee just outside of Orlando in Florida. Raining here already but no real wind. I expect we will feel the effect of TS Barry at some stage. -
Snow/wintry Precipitation Reports 27th Dec 2005
SxK replied to Paul Sherman's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
We have just had a dusting in Bedford