jacke

I DO get your para above framed! That is the essence of computer programming. Limited data being built on as the time gets nearer. Surely for chart watchers the fun is guessing what the new data will influence? Don't panic going on a full count later, at this point confident in colder input by next weekend for much of the east.!

I trust my gulls as much as the charts at the mo!

Your such a happy lad Crewe

Nick I must come in here!!!! Week or so ago I said was looking for nature to give a sign regarding possible changes, particularly gulls moving inland from the East coast to my area, about 40 miles inland from nearest coastal point. Lockdown has made this difficult but able to walk to open large housewaste dump about 1 mile away. Normal winter stock of gulls about 60. This morning difficult to be precise but certainly at least double that figure. Nearly 60 years of bird watching tells me that numbers only increase when unsettled or cold weather is in the offing on the coast. Something is afoot within the next 5-6 days. Some or many may laugh at this but don't mock nature. If the weather was to dominate from the West I would not see these increases. Another pointer, I am within a few miles of the famous Welney Wash Reserve where hundreds of Bewick swans travel to over winter. Can't go there at the mo, but noticed something since Thursday. The flocks which leave the reserve during the day to feed and graze on agricultural land ( fields containing left over sugar beer tops one of their favourites) have been returning to the reserve later each evening. Signs that they are preparing for more extreme weather than currently? By the way Nick don't let your head grow, but I rate your predictions on here very highly

After my unkind comments to him yesterday I hope he does. May need some bringing down to earth and he is the man for that. Need all thoughts on this.

Thank you ECM, for non educated lurkers like me a much more helpful response to the current output. Sorry to bang on but there are so many members like me that look to the knowledgeable for guidance. That's what makes this forum so worthwhile.

OK, let's return to last year's output! Sorry the charts not showing a 10 day blizzard but this is the UK. So there are no possibilities from the latest charts? Comments of "meh" so discreptive. NOT!

You simply love shooting everything down

I must get out of my outlets seat for a moment. If you have not closely read Catacols latest post, please do, so much common sense. As a lurker it is perhaps easier to track comments as well as the charts and trends. Firstly the comments overall. I suspect I am not alone among us quiet ones in saying this forum is on the verge of sinking into a mindless table of counter comments and petty back biting of some members. Please think a little before you write. Please do not let this fabulous forum sink into the mire. No professional background in any of this but years and years of chart and weather watching. So dare I say that this has been a season of too much 850s fear and loathing. Yes of course they are important but not in the single isolation that some members place them. The fact that there are reasonable charts showing them this winter instead of the normal westerly dross has led to them being taken out of context. Like most on here I am pretty baffled by the swings and roundabouts of the current output. What I am convinced off is substantial change around the period 19th Jan onwards which has been the projected period for many members. I also feel that changes will not be dramatic as some may think but will beon the cooler side at least. The background theme of most charts will be sadly wrong if that is not the case. And remember Cooler surface temps can be an important factor to coldooling not just 850s. This is not likely to be a repeat of the Dec attempts. Much more in our favour, historically the actual period of winter. My father was always adamant that the 1947 winter came out of the blue so never give up on some extreme weather if that is your thing. As a passing comment, having lived in the same location for nearly 70 years I have noticed how many coastal gulls move inland to my location if severe cold or particularly cold easterlies are afoot. You won't find them on a chart but I will post if I see an increase over the coming days!

An original lurker here, but felt I must comment on some of the things being said today. Trying to make blunt statements on the basis of current outputs is rediculous. Yes I know it's the purpose of this forum but please accept the level of disarray being shown over the last few days. Having followed weather charts long before most of you were born it is pretty rare that they flip flop to this extent so quickly. I am well old enough to remember the winter of 1963. Please don't make comparisons from anything we have seen so far. Not naming anyone but to say there were milder spells and flooding even during that spell is simply wrong. Look at the records I was there until the thaw finally came the vast percentage of England at least was frigid. Obviously there was not the level of computing available then so difficult chocolate actual forecasting. But one thing was clear. No met forecaster had predicted what was to come more than 48/72 hours beforehand. Trawl each output as,you will, there is plenty of time for this winter to produce. Back to my shell now

A watcher for a long time and my first post which is not model related. However seeing some of the posts this morning moderator please allow. To TEITS, a speedy recovery, I enjoy your posts. I wonder whether you was treated at Peterborough City Hospital Intensive Care? I am a volunteer in the unit. Just on the current model discussion I was about for the 1963 winter. Not the technology then but the realization of what was to come was only picked up at about 72hrs.