Darkcloud
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Posts posted by Darkcloud
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22 minutes ago, CK1981 said:
I was trying to be positive, but there’s no point sugar coating things, it’s looking crap now.
If the experts are moving away from proper cold, I expect the Met Office outlook will also be watered down tomorrow.
We get sucked in every time, but never learn.
Agreed! Its damn addictive though! Some part of me is still hoping something will appear suddenly. Meto long range gives me a spark of hope but this whole winter has been a tease...mouthwatering synoptics that fail to verify!
Out of interest, was it an easterly that delivered to us in 2009/10?
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31 minutes ago, CK1981 said:
Things seem to be taking a turn for the worst this evening, with a rather sobering tweet from Ian suggesting a chilly outlook, but nothing bothersome. I think we will be very lucky to get an easterly. The BBC are favouring a mid Atlantic ridge over a Scandi ridge ?
Now where’s that towel.....
Don't worry...I've already thrown it in!
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1 hour ago, CK1981 said:
This is very encouraging!
One thing I will say about Exeter, for them to stick to the easterly outlook must show a pretty strong signal in Glosea.
Now we have this from the contingency planners, I will certainly keep the faith.
I'm fast losing faith, even if we do by some miracle get the easterly it'll probably be a dry one knowing our luck!
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I'm confused....we have a potential (but unlikely) easterly in the offing, some of the lowest uppers I've seen all winter and some intriguing model output yet no sign of Frosty!? Somethings not right!!
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But doesn't high pressure generally mean a lack of precipitation? (Though much as I'm desperate for snow, cold and dry would also be welcome...)
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Wind really picking up now here, can hear things flying around! Been chucking it down for an hour...sounds like hail at the moment but no way I'm going out to check! I fear for my shed tonight!
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Still snowing hard, mini blizzard!! Now settling quite well, grass white
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Heavy ish snow for last half hour, big proper flakes. settling on cars but don't think it's going to stick here
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34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
It's the old German DWD model revamped. Often quite close to the ecm output but not as good. I think it verifies below ukmo and similar to gfs
Thanks BA. Another one to keep an eye on then!
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Can anyone she'd any light on the ICON model please? Been following the models and on here for about 7 years and have never heard about it til the last month or so! What are it's verification stats like?
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Been moderate /heavy wet snow here since 9am. Temp 0.5 dp 1? Settling on cars, roofs and grass but can't see it sticking!
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Chucking it down here, been rumbling in the distance off the coast for an hour. Impressive lightning. Come closer damn you!
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First time posting in here so "Hi" to all! Would like to say a huge thanks to @knocker and @Frosty. in particular, for keeping this thread going when the majority have abandoned ship during these quiet times. Your analysis and expert opinion is most appreciated!
Just wondering if anyone has any idea why the models have got it so wrong this winter in showing the holy grail so often (albeit usually at D10!) In my humble opinion the GFS has been really off on one! Ok, the output correctly showed the lingering highs but the frequent eye candy never materialised so after being an avid model watcher for many years, I have lost faith to some extent and wondered if there is a reason for the models performance this winter?
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Have snow symbols for my area for early hours of Thursday on met office! Nothing showing up on GFS! What are the chances???
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Please could someone point me in the right direction for finding dew point for my location? Have been using NW but can't zoom. Thanks
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27 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:
Tomorrow mornings snow is currently moving into Northern Scotland and turning readily to snow!
Hmm, will it reach us intact though? Bbc just had it as rain on the forecast map but met office have it as snow on the app! Everything crossed!
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4 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:
Still rain here no snow yet
I think our snow shield must be up! Heavy rain, not a flake in sight and 4.5deg!
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Not a whiff of anything here in East Sussex! Longing for autumn proper. Would love to have proper seasons back. 17.5 c and clear sky. Any rain/ storms seem to be going wide!
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Absolutely torrential here! Lightning every few seconds and thunder shaking the house. makes a change to have something worthwhile reporting from my patch in the south east lol!
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Marie, I'm in mayfield nr Tunbridge Wells. Moderate snow now and wind picking up.
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Light snow here!! Didn't think it would get this far. ( although blob on radar gave me hope lol) Not expecting more than a few flakes though!
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Please could someone tell me how to get dew point for a certain location? My nearest weather station is 15 miles away so that's no good! (Wunderground) Temp here 1.4 and dropping rapidly.
Model output discussion - mid January
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Can't believe what I'm seeing from the models today/tonight!!! Can't dismiss the 18z anymore, its been teetotal recently! Could it finally happen??? (On knees praying)