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Methuselah

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Everything posted by Methuselah

  1. Methuselah
    Mid January for me, BB. After that, we'll be waiting on another SSW...with any luck!
  2. Methuselah
    But the far reaches of the GFS FV3 still 'suggest' the potential for an attack from the North and the UK-centred HP to move away westwards...I know it's a stretch, but the last two frames do suggest it...Honest! NTS And, as we all know, NTS means not to be taken seriously!
  3. Methuselah
    And I will be concentrating on developments to our ENE and NNW.
  4. Methuselah
    The potential for a very cold Arctic blast is still there, on Day 16...In the absence of any deep cold to our east (none that looks like coming this way just yet, anyway?) a wee bit of extrapolation might just keep our moods up...?
  5. Methuselah
    Couldn't agree with you more, fromey...even without an SSW, the other background signals still point toward cold...
  6. Methuselah
    G'd arvo, NL...from one 'old fart' to another...
  7. Methuselah
    When I dared suggest that some of the shameless ramping, withing the pages of this thread, was almost pointless, I was promptly put in my place: 'This the Hunt for Cold thread...,' I was told...So, fair enough, that's what I now do: Hunt for Cold...
  8. Methuselah
    Same might be said for those extrapolating from an SSW that hasn't even happened yet?
  9. Methuselah
    February 1969 was the very event I was thinking of, Sleety... I remember it well!
  10. Methuselah
    It certainly would, were it to come down straight from the Arctic...
  11. Methuselah
    No, not jitters; just what they missed-out yesterday...? How can Atlantic fronts move in, give us all bucket-loads of snow, and yet never threaten us with a single 'milder interlude'? BTW, that's positive spin!
  12. Methuselah
    And the FV3 follows its older brother by hinting a change, in early January...Hope it's on the money and smelling some premium coffee!
  13. Methuselah
    FV3 looks a wee bet better, for Xmas Day:
  14. Methuselah
    Wouldn't that northerly be a potential stonker - were it to become real:
  15. Methuselah
    The eventual demise of that long-lived Atlantic low has always been a potential fly-in-the-ointment, I feel: each run has a different 'solution': Nooooo! Not one of those.
  16. Methuselah
    The GFS 06Z is not a pretty sight either...Like Katy Price, without her makeup - all the lines are where they shouldn't be!
  17. Methuselah
    I wonder what status tonight's 18Z will adopt. Will it be the finder of the unstoppable path to cold? Or will it, as it so often does, go the way of the pear? That IMO, is where we currently stand: we won't know the effects of the SSW until much closer to when it happens, so the tail-ends of the models will continue to flap, for a few more days yet... I will dutifully apply my 'how many pages have been filled, overnight' test, first thing in the morning! Night all!
  18. Methuselah
    The GEFS ensemble, for 850mb temperature Aberdeen) shows remarkable inter-member agreement until after Xmas dinner, and then realises there's rather too much cognac in its pudding: The corresponding runs for Northampton get pi55ed a little sooner: The SLP ensemble suggests that the signal for a general rise in pressure is still gaining momentum:
  19. Methuselah
    My hunch was that the tail-end of the 12Z operational would be noticeably dissimilar to that of the 06Z...so that's 365 successive days, on which my hunch has paid-off. We don't call it 'Fantasy Island' for nothing!
  20. Methuselah
    I remember January 2003 quite well, as I was staying in the NW Highlands...18C recorded in Banchory; and certainly no month-long cold spell that I can remember...? But, as you say, not entirely unheard of: 1963, 1981-2, 1985, 1986...2010? Anywho, back to today - plenty of amplification around; it's good to see the N-S orientated potential block forming, out in the Atlantic, too:
  21. Methuselah
    It depends how you look at it, AWD...Iberian heights will only stick around so long as nothing comes down from the north, to push them aside??
  22. Methuselah
    They might...were this coming January's pattern in any way dependent on last January's? IMO, out of context 'statistics' seldom count for anything...
  23. Methuselah
    Me neither...But it only needs for January to be half as good as our expectations...
  24. Methuselah
    Donald Trump's made one, too:
  25. Methuselah
    A ceaseless train of depressions, either sliding or channel-running, would do nicely...
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