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Methuselah

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Everything posted by Methuselah

  1. I fear we are seeing an indefinite 'trend' in operation here, shaky?
  2. Of course it's for Aberdeen, A252...that's where the op's cold air is meant to hit first.
  3. It's almost as if the building blocks, the SSW at T+384 and the overpowering smell of freshly ground coffee, have all gone into stasis? I think my TARDIS must've got stuck!
  4. Surprise, surprise...after December 21, the GEFS op is an outlier. Who'd a thunk it!
  5. But...Isn't posting charts that'll never verify the very bread-and-butter of this thread, Blue...?
  6. 06Z GFS looking interesting @ T+348: And even more so @ T+384: So, again, the week immediately after Xmas could be exciting?
  7. Is it my imagination, or has the 'centre of gravity' of the GEFS ensemble slipped ever so slightly towards a colder set of solutions? Anyway, Suffolk's 850s ought to be the best place to look, if an easterly draw has any traction...?
  8. Let's hope so, Mike...In the mean time, my cat is impatiently telling me it's bed time. Full-blown blizzards, on tonight's GFS 00Z?
  9. A fascinating read, as always, S...But I feel I must ask a simple question: how can the models 'know' when to produce a Nino-like atmospheric pattern? Or is this a simple coincidence? Or ought I just keep taking the s!
  10. When we start hearing rumours of a mysterious Cornishman buying-up all the red crayons, in all the village shops, will be when we need to start worrying? In the mean time, the week between Xmas and New year looks like a good bet...
  11. So, after what seems like page after page of burgeoning excitement, I view the 12Z Para and find this: And then this: And, lastly, this, which I think looks interesting: But, overall, I'm still minded towards a rather cold and unsettled run-up to Xmas...New Year? Who knows...But the omens look good, to me...
  12. Not very often, Sleety... But we sure remember it when we do!☺
  13. Given what we've seen from the models of late (uncertainty by the bucket-load) I'd give the Met 10/10, for that forecast...
  14. One would think (hope?) that having cold air to both our east and west, ought to presage a better than average winter? Surely we can't stay inside a s**t sandwich for three months?
  15. Thanks for posting that. Tom. And, yes, I also remember a number of days' rain/sleet/wet snow (cold zonality?) during the Decembers of the late 1960s - of which, the rain>sleet>snow event of Xmas Eve 1968 was a prime example; I can even recall watching soggy sleet start falling at, you've guessed it, 38F!
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