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Methuselah

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Everything posted by Methuselah

  1. Methuselah
    Well, for however long the relative cold lasts, I look forward to building the world's biggest potentialman sometime this week...GFS/ECM/UKMO permitting!
  2. Methuselah
    It does indeed, karyo...and it's not what I expected the 'LIA Footprint' to look like at all!
  3. Methuselah
    Just as the Triangle of Doom is set for another bout of nothing!
  4. Methuselah
    I agree with the bulk of what you're saying there, mulzy...My one quibble is that, as far as I can see, unless humanity can invent a computer whose computing power is infinite and have access to every last shred of data there is, long-range weather forecasting will be forever probabilistic...? IMO, we will never be in a position from which we can know everything...?
  5. Methuselah
    The upcoming slider looks like delivering a right old mess...fifty shades of marginal would be my guess? And that's not allowing for the fact that the depression's track is as yet far from decided. So here's to a Merry Christmas for all - and nice clean sidewalks!
  6. Methuselah
    Way too much time spent perusing the PEAR model!
  7. Methuselah
    Let me know when it's been extended by a month, Nick...
  8. Methuselah
    One good thing from the 06Z: there might be enough rain to wash the vomit off the pavements:
  9. Methuselah
    Aye Frosty. Temps mostly between 4 and 8C (possibly more like 3 and 9C?) ought to be 'cold' enough for sleet and snow to fall on at least one or two occasions...as BA said above - pretty typical 'old fashioned' January fare. Far better than the crap to which we've become accustomed!
  10. Methuselah
    Looks like a pretty 'normal' next 15 days to me: temps fluctuating a couple of degrees either side of average for much of the time, and several wet and windy spells; no sign of any real cold? On the bright side - the Scottish ski resorts might get a bit of a pasting...
  11. Methuselah
    Agreed CS...though it'll be very marginal IMO:
  12. Methuselah
    There must be some chance, however slim, of something wintry coming from this wee window (or more accurately cat-flap) of opportunity:
  13. Methuselah
    4.7C and 66mm of rain, please...
  14. Methuselah
    Mein Gott, this looks unpleasant...Calls for a rocket-powered Pogo Stick!
  15. Methuselah
    Aye snowfish, I certainly have a 'feeling' about it: Oh no, not again!
  16. Methuselah
    Something that's always puzzled me about the MJO: Is it an 'external' signal derived independently of the models (like the QBO?) or is it, like the NAO, something that's extracted from ordinary model output, and thus little more than a kind of shorthand for whichever facet of global synoptics it's supposed to explain/simplify? I have a job discerning cause from effect...
  17. Methuselah
    I've definitely seen worse Xmas charts than what GFS is suggesting for next week...at least we have a better idea of what's what than we had back 'in the day': a five-minute-long Home Service forecast of 'unsettled with rain, sleet or snow at times'? And how was I supposed to know that the snow was atop Ben Nevis, the sleet half way up Men Nevis, and the rain everywhere else...? These days, we'd all know better than to spend almost the entire festive period watching lampposts through the letterbox!
  18. Methuselah
    No shortage of depressions:
  19. Methuselah
    Oh dear, where did all that potential toddle off to?
  20. Methuselah
    And...some potential.
  21. Methuselah
    Not three bad, I guess...
  22. Methuselah
    Aye Frosty, and things could hardly be less interesting for the coming week...After that, though, it's all about periods of rain, one or two hoolies thrown in, and some snow on Ben Nevis and even, with a wee slice of luck, atop the Shard...All to play for - but more runs needed!
  23. Methuselah
    I don't have any problem at all with what GP and Tamara are doing...which is, IMO, merely keeping us all updated with how the teleconnections seem to be developing...? It ain't the state of the teleconnections that's causing the 'problems', it's the wild, weird and wonderful extrapolations the usual suspects like to infer... IMO, it doesn't really matter so much, which particular state the teleconnections are in, UK winters will still be mild/average more often than not? No need to 'shoot the messengers'?
  24. Methuselah
    I always thought that 'cardboard' was the only flavour! PS: Calm, clear and 0C...no fog yet...
  25. Methuselah
    I thought they were all taken from 1962-63!
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