[Winter 2017/2018-Stormy December, Two Severe Wintry Spells January/February.]

Here in the north east it felt the least stormiest since 2012 apart from last year 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

53 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

To me when weather forecasters call day temps of 5*C cold in winter - I would more likely describe that as cool - 5*C in the day is hardly what I would call cold in mid winter.

That massively depends on windchill though also or on the other hand if your in a col etc with high dew points. There’s a huge difference 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

It's because it's windy too warm and therefore wet and humid. You'll lose more heat that way than with proper cold because many materials lose their insulating properties when wet and the wind will just remove all your heat very quickly 

The thing is the wind felt very dry but incredibly cold. The thermometer said 5.5c. Yes my 4 layers were no match for the wind from the east

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

All this mention of wanting an easterly. I went down to the east coast sea front today and all I’ll say is I wasn’t their long

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

“How this block breaks is rather as simple as models suggest, and expect flips at short lead times” is very telling. 

I always think stick to the models 5-7 days out and watch the story unfold. The rest no one knows until the next models run come out and the general consensus

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

31 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It is now a week since we started chasing a cold Easterly that was due in a weeks time. At that point ECM and UKMO were on board. By midweek the models had found a middle ground where the Easterly didn’t quite make it so we have a week fairly mild Easterly and then the Atlantic comes back in potentially giving a blast of PM air as it takes a more south East tagedtory. Since then a few rouge runs have shown the easterly but it is only the UKMO and forecasts from a couple of memebers that are keeping the cold Easterly dream alive now. Don’t get your hopes up people! A cold Snowy easterly is very unlikely and people who tell you otherwise will go very quiet for a few days when it is completely off the table. I won’t be popular for this post but I’m just being honest and want to save people from disappointment. 

Yes I think I agree. In 2012 we got a little nearer to the prize but not for long. I remember it being 1.5c on the east coast with leaden skies with snow grains.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Prognosis for this winter is the best since 2012/13. Can the second half see something special to match that winter or even better it? Even though 2014/15 saw a lot of polar westerly flow the jet was not as meridional and that’s a big plus on our side going forward 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

7 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well I'm firmly in the gfs camp here

It simply refuses to budge and I have to think it must be on to something.

We'll know in the morning but IF it's right it will be some victory

I think the same was said last night January I think the GFS will slowly come on board in the next couple of days

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

One thing what is puzzling me is how are we getting all this blocking to the NE with zonal winds are 52m/s although they do drop off to 40m/s in a week but still

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I'm very happy, the initial cold surge from the north later this week is in the bag with showers turning increasingly to snow and widespread frosts..then next week we have our best chance for years of seeing a prolonged easterly!..if you're a coldie, the potential is huge..enjoy the ride, I am!

Yes agree. I can’t see it falling apart now with UKMO supporting the ecm. A different winter this time you can tell

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Personally I think chance plays a large part to where the high ends up but any of these outcomes is possible in my eyes. This winter has been colder from the outset with a diving trough scenario so maybe ECM could be onto something just maybe this time

[December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Joint coldest, more or less, with 2012. Of the 6 Decembers from 2005 to 2010, 4 were colder than this December.

If we’re being pedantic was 2017s figure to 2 decimal places lower? 

[December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins]

3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

4.75C, a drop of 0.4C, so another big correction this month.

I’m guessing that’s the coldest CET for December since 2010 then

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

The ECM has some significant cold Saturday through Monday pilling in. Snow showers for the east I would imagine pushing inland on a very cold Neasterly

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Just had a late look at the ecm and my oh my is winter coming? Tomorrow’s runs will be interesting. Just a thought but could this east Pacifica La Niña be helping the meridional jet along with low solar. Who knows?

[December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins]

18 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

3.3c here to the 29th, 0.6c below the 1981-2010 average.

Couple of rises likely now, so 3.5c probable finish (-0.3c)

It’s been a cold quite snowy month in more northern areas. I think you have to go back to March 2013 to find the last time this happened

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

14 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ECM looks good to me , the PV is sliced into 3 chunks ......interesting times approach I say 

Agree. The uppers are marginal for snow in the reliable though. Admit it’s an interesting pattern going forward though.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Am i the only one who likes the EC?

I think its a lovely run with temps generally average or below (its Jan so average means cold)from 168 onwards - quite an upgrade from the 00z run.

Uppers getting into the -8 territory once again from next late Friday for more of the country so snow will be back for many

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

I keep asking myself is this winter much different to 2014/15? The only thing I can think of is the troughs are having a nw-sw tilt at times with more amplification to the west in general so giving marginal snow events with the jet a touch more meridionel 

[Model output discussion - heading into 2018]

6 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

It is a worry that seemingly all of the mid-long-range models are going for a largely mild & wet January with high pressure to south,that is JMA, CFS, EC, presumably Glosea as well. However today Gav P did a video saying that he thinks that possibly it will not pan out like this, because of the jet stream wanting to keep south of us.

Does anyone know why exactly, the jet stream has been behaving like this - is it the pressure pattern, or perhaps even lower-than-average temps in Africa reducing the thermal gradient, or something else? Thanks.

As a guess I would say pressure hasn’t been as high in Southern Europe this winter, since winter 2012/13 which is helping it drop more south plus positive pressure has been stacking up to the west of us

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Well those in the south Pennines should be getting there sledges ready

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Latest cfs long range goes for a close to summer like April. Maybe one to watch

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Are you forgetting Global Warming?

Surely, continued Arctic warming will mean less chance of cold air getting far enough south to provide severe cold for UK!

I can't believe how high the temperatures are over Central/Northern Europe so far this winter.

Looks like it's all going the way of USA again!

There will always be cold winters coming along imo. Just rarer is all. Same with dry hot summers

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 hours ago, sundog said:

Anything we get regards decent cold before 2019 or 2020 is a bonus imo. This winter is probably too soon. Thought the same last winter. 

I think 2024 up to 2027 might be a big one. The multiples imply this 1916/17, 33/34, 46/47, 62/63, 78/79, 95/96, 09/10.