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B87

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Everything posted by B87

  1. Averages in September are about the same as in June (20c/11c vs 21c/12c), but highs in September are more stable. I don't think a 1c difference in average low would be as noticeable as a 1c difference in average high. By the end of September/start of October, highs are around 18c, but the trees usually don't start changing colour until mid-October. October and November are the stereotypical Autumn months here - they are often windy/rainy, with leaves turning and falling. We usually get our first frost at the end of November.
  2. I think most people consider September as an extension of summer, as it doesn't feel very 'autumnal'. It's the least windy time of year, is often dry, and the trees are still green. We haven't had a good May for ages. I think the last ones were in 2011 and 2008. April is usually a settled and sunny month here (with a few exceptions like 2016, 2013, 2008).
  3. Hopefully we will get a winter like 07/08, then the spring of 2011 and at least a normal summer next year!
  4. Yeah, sub-20c highs and a 9c low on the forecast. What a joke! Roll on summer 2017!
  5. So it turns out we didn't even reach 5 hours sun yesterday. Temps were a bit above normal for early August though, with 24.7c. Still the only normal day we've had out of the first 3. I always saw August as a copy of July. But these days it's more and more like September.
  6. At a guess we've probably had 7-8 hrs of sun today, which is what you'd expect. hourly high was 23.8c so also normal for early August.
  7. Here it has delivered 2 cool, wet and overcast days, and 1 average day.
  8. Same has happened here, look at the average highs for August since 2000. The long term average for August here is 23.2c. 1998: 23.5c 1999: 22.8c 2000: 23.2c 2001: 23.5c 2002: 23.3c 2003: 26.4c 2004: 23.8c 2005: 23.2c 2006: 22.2c 2007: 21.5c 2008: 21.5c 2009: 23.9c 2010: 21.6c 2011: 21.8c 2012: 23.5c 2013: 24.3c 2014: 21.7c 2015: 22.2c Hopefully the cold pool will leave us alone and we can have a run of Augusts with 24-25c+ average highs, to help us forget about the recent atrocities. How do I edit the line spacing on here?
  9. Any time anything decent has shown up on the forecast, it almost always gets downgraded. We will probably end up with a couple of days of 24-25c at best, nothing special.
  10. Maybe across the country as a whole, but from 1998-2005 here, they were all about average apart from 2003 and maybe 2004. August 1994 and 1996 were average here too. Only 1995, 1997, 2003 stand out for being noticeably above normal. 1998: 23.5c/12.7c 1999: 22.8c/14.0c 2000: 23.2c/14.0c 2001: 23.5c/14.5c 2002: 23.3c/14.7c 2003: 26.4c/15.7c 2004: 23.8c/15.1c 2005: 23.2c/13.0c
  11. I think the record coldest max for August here is around 14 or 15c, so that could be under threat?
  12. Looks to be around 6-7c below average for here, so looking at 17-18c max!
  13. I never moaned much in the summer of 2007 because at the time it was just a blip, and it's expected to have a couple of crap summers per decade, a couple of good ones, and the rest normal. We've been having lots of poor summers recently, and only 2 average or good ones. I like the normal climate of SE England, which this isn't. If this was our long term average, I would have emigrated by now.
  14. I don't get why moaning about the weather is such a bad thing, when 6 of the cloudiest summers ever recorded have happened since 2007?
  15. If this August records 156.4 hrs of sun or less, then 2016 will be the cloudiest summer ever recorded here! 1. 440.3 hrs (1968) 2. 445.8 hrs (1958) 3. 462.7 hrs (2012) 4. 478.7 hrs (2008) 5. 481.0 hrs (1977) 6. 481.3 hrs (1987) 7. 491.2 hrs (2011) 8. 492.2 hrs (2007) 9. 492.8 hrs (2010) 10. 494.1 hrs (1979)
  16. The only sunnier than average months since summer 2006 are: June 2006 July 2006 June 2010 July 2013 June 2014 July 2014 Did those months have anything in common?
  17. I am 100% certain that they posted up the KZ values originally for those 4 months, and then edited them to their current values several months/years later. They added those KZ values onto that sun graph I posted, but didn't edit them back to CS. It seems like different papers show different outcomes, regarding the translation of CS to electronic sun hours. It's commonly thought that US hours are over-inflated, as they are around 150-300 hours sunnier than Canadian locations on the border. Canada uses 120W/m2 whereas the US varies between 87W/me, 100W/m2 and the CS (in Boston). On another forum I'm a member of, there are a couple of NZ members who have said that the change to KZ has caused an increase in sun hours. Warsaw, Berlin and Paris have too (they all record similar sun hours to London ~1600-1700, but since adopting electronic sensors they are recording 2000+, 1800, 1750 hours respectively). The CS recorder in use at Kew Gardens had a burn threshold of 139.5W/m2, as opposed to the KZ 120W/m2. Summers now seem a lot cloudier than they did pre-2006, even without looking at the data. The rest of the year seems unchanged.
  18. Every other country that has introduced KZ sensors has seen an increase in sun hours. They have a lower recording threshold than the CS recorder does. This study suggests that electronic sensors recording at 120W/m2 record about 10% more sun over the year than the CS. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-014-1125-z Why have the Met Office adjusted the sun figures on the historic data page downwards? July 2006 recorded 302 hours with a KZ sensor, yet on that page it has been adjusted to 266 hours to fit with CS measurements. That is the case with many if not all months, but that and July 2013, Feb 2008 and June 2012 were other ones that I've noticed have changed from when they were first published. KZ vs CS Jul 2006: 302 vs 266 hrs (13.5% higher with KZ) Feb 2008: 138 vs 130 hrs (6.1% higher with KZ) Jun 2012: 132 vs 118 hrs (11.8% higher with KZ) Jul 2013: 303 vs 268 hrs (13.1% higher with KZ) The sunniest July and cloudiest June on this graph are 2006 and 2012 respectively, recorded with KZ sensor. On the historic data page they have been adjusted downwards, to correspond with CS records. "Currently, Kipp & Zonen monthly totals are adjusted to Campbell-Stokes equivalent values prior to generating the sunshine grids." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/ukcp09/faq.html
  19. But a standard August in this part of the UK should see highs of 23c with over 200 hours of sun. That isn't asking for much, that's just our typical August climate. We haven't seen that since 2005, and the wait seems to be getting longer every year. With an average high of 23c, you'd expect to see a couple of months with average highs between 21-22c in a decade. You also expect to see a couple of months with average highs of 24-25c and we haven't seen any, we've only had the poor ones.
  20. Yes, because pretty much the last 11 Augusts have all been cooler and cloudier than normal. We got 'lucky' in a few years like 2009, 2012 and 2013 which had normal or slightly above average temps, but were still very cloudy compared to the long term average.. Go back to 2000-2005, and all of those Augusts had normal temps and sun (apart from 2003 obviously, which was above).
  21. The normal average for August is 23.2c. 24c in early August and 22c in late August. Most of that forecast has below normal temps and sunshine.
  22. After a decade of crap Augusts, I won't be happy with anything less than average. Fed up of 21-22c days with cloud and rain.
  23. Our forecast showing below average temperatures and sun dominating August yet again. Impossible to get a normal or good August these days!
  24. 12c is normal in March or November, and you don't see anyone in shorts then.
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