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weathermadbarnsleylad

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Posts posted by weathermadbarnsleylad

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, MattStoke said:

    And of course the ECM looks garbage.

    Yes it does look meh but the gfs shows the improvement past 240hrs so hope we could see some improvement from ecm in next few days regarding building high pressure has per gfs this morning But that's all in lala land/fantasy island still. But I'm straw clutching. Let's hope it becomes a trend going forward.

    6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    Reading a few posts on here it's all hopecasting and speculation.  C,Mon tell me why any of you believe computer models ,when their long range forecasts have been absolutely garbage . This is a mugs game ,unfortunately I've  been lead up the garden path and become a mug myself...😂😂😂😂Anyway I'm enjoying the unsettled conditions and will continue to do as we wheel our way through the month of August...☺☔☔💧💧⚡⚡

    We are all weather mugs lol

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    Hey folks I hope you've been enjoying this early taste of Summer. We can't complain when we are still only in the 1st month of it!

    I tell you what last weekend we had shower after shower around these parts...yet today's forecast of persistent thundery showers as bitten the dust. Its actually turned out very warm and sunny. And this is the problem with showers,it's not the fact the gurus get it wrong...but the hitand miss nature of shower activity!.

    If you escape the showers the positively balmy conditions continue...and I feel this shower risk may begin to decrease as the week goes on,temps remaining very warm in sunnier intervals.

    Beyond this I'm feeling confident of many more spells of settled and at times very warm possibly Hot conditions. Perhaps a more North South split to things further afield. But a quick glance at the met long-range forecast and its mention of weak signals says it all. For me climate change is making those long range signals mute at times with other over riding factors at play! The fact we have nearly already gone beyond that 1.5C increase on Global temps,when the experts was hoping this would be much further down the line,spells trouble! We could be in all kinds of trouble by the middle of this century.

    Anyway I'm not gonna complain with current conditions as I've enjoyed the long sunny days..but the nights in my room have been a travesty..barely dropping below 82F.

    So whatever your poison do try and enjoy and all keep healthy and well folks.

     

    hiding-fridge.gif

    Top comments @MATTWOLVES 3 yes it's cracking once sun comes out .

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Decent gfs 00z .shows high pressure building from the south mid week time next week. A couple of downpours/storms likely Sunday to Tuesday before it settles again and we see the build of pressure. Also never really gets cooler. Low 20s still on offer and feeling humid(good growing weather) All those that like hot sunny weather could be singing again by next weekend. We shall see. Have a great day all and most of all take care.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 2

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

    Bit of a downgrade for next wed-fri on the GEM. 850hp uppers looking much lower as the hot air is pushed back to the continent. 2m temps in Low twenties from Wednesday onwards in my neck of the woods and it they dont even hit 30 in the balmy southeast. 

    Hopefully not evidence of a trend developing.

     

    I think anything after the weekend can change for good or bad if your an hot weather fan

    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Froze were the Days said:

    £500 of my money says 06z run is a cold outlier...we always seem to get the odd OTT run like this! we can fantasise over these type runs as a few liked to quote yesterday...ECM nothing like this.

    6z gfs latest run may be showing new data that has not yet been inprinted in the ecm. Need to see how the 12z handle it now . Very big changes early on the 6z. Fascinating stuff. 

    • Like 3

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

    The high won’t just sit over us for weeks and weeks lol, when in reality does it ever do that? Give it a few days and see where the next move is, whatever the models are showing now in 7 days time pretty much guarantee that won’t be what actually happens. This thread sometimes

    Yes true things can change in 96hr nevermind a week lol

    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi morning cold hunters. Yes not looking very good for anortherly now from the latest runs. The 00z ens show 1 or 2 cold members but that's clutching at straws . I am going to say one thing though is that until it gets to 96hr .yes sounds like a broken record but a flip could still happen. We have seen it from cold to mild. But from mild to cold is a different kettle of fish. Hoping for an upgrade on the 06z.

    Chart below 00z ens showing 1or 2 cold shots from yhe 16th onwards.

    t850South_Yorkshire (1).png

    Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Hi morning cold hunters. Yes not looking very good for anortherly now from the latest runs. The 00z ens show 1 or 2 cold members but that's clutching at straws . I am going to say one thing though is that until it gets to 96hr .yes sounds like a broken record but a flip could still happen. We have seen it from cold to mild. But from mild to cold is a different kettle of fish. Hoping for an upgrade on the 06z.

    Chart below 00z ens showing 1or 2 cold shots from yhe 16th onwards.

    t850South_Yorkshire (1).png

    Chart is for south Yorkshire 

    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

    That chart does demonstrate that it is a reasonable expectation for the UK to receive a polar maritime air mass for a couple of days or so, before the mobility of the overall current pattern moves it on. The good news for the UK is that the polar maritime air source in question appears to be stronger than in recent years. Therefore, whilst the time it spends here may be limited, it could still have a significant impact.

    Has it still is days away it can still also upgrade or downgrade. My only thinking with models this winter is they really struggled with Xmas blooper cold spell prediction. So I would say anything after 72/96hr can change either way. Seen has I'm a coldie I'm hoping for upgrades on the 00z. Maybe thats why I'm maybe clutching at straws and a bit bias. But even if I wasn't I still think something special is around the corner for a decent cold spell. I just think it's a very strange winter and surprises will happen at a very short time frame.

     

    • Like 2

    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I my opinion . Anything can change within 96hrs sometimes less from mild south westerly to a raging easterly especially this year with the model struggles . Don't worry if it currently doesn't look good for cold. The severe cold won't stay up north forever and when it eventually does drop south we are definitely going to know about it this year. We all need to be patient and take every run with a pinch of salt. I'm not too worried about the 12z has by tonight it will have changed again. Seen enough in the early ens to be confident it's not sorted out yet. 96hrs is fantasy island for me. And anything after is very much up for grabs. Mid month in my opinion will be the turning point to our winter. 

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Was just rain here Barnsley 130m asl maybe an odd sleety bit. Nevertheless always next time. Hopefully something crops up in the medium term but not looking hopeful in the models just yet. But time will tell. Glad some of you got some snow anyway. Peace out.

    Just looked at radar. It's looks like it's intensifying abit more from the North. Maybe a chance on the back edge. Will keep an eye out for next half hour or so.

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