[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon 00z

Scandinavia pressure increases similar to the GFS 18z (attached for comparison)

Defo signs their mate 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just now, Daniel said:

GEM similar to icon with freezing conditions for Wednesday. If we could delay the arrival with the low a little bit more on GEM we would see mid minus teens 850hpas entering the east. The breakdown looks to be around Thursday ish altho I think we might manage couple more days extra than that away from the far SW

Once the cold is over us. It will be hard to shift and the breakdown will get pushed back. IMO. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

I tell you something this as got to be the best spell of model watching for sometime. I'm so addicted to it. I'm going insane. 

Also abit more about my upper post. 

I think once the cold is over us. The output going forward will change. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

OK so it's looking Thursday could be the day of some sort of trough disruption/or breakdown. Ukmo/icon and GFS show the low pushing against the block to our east at 144hr. This is all still fantasy island for me. I expect by tomorrow evening the low shown will be further south than forecast and I think we could still have - 8/-10 850hpa over us until at least the end of next weekend. NO WAY IS THAT LOW GOING STRAIGHT THRU. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

It's looking like 3 or 4 day affair now then here come the lows. According to to gfs 18z.cant see been anything special yet. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

38 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A few random snaps from the 18z gefs. @mslp @500,s @2ms anyone craving a possible noted winter outbreak...not happy with these circuit=dynamics need to ask themselves if they ever will be .ciao gunnight✌✌

Looks pretty good to me mate

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

Don't take every run to heart. The trend is still there so I'm OK with the ECM at day 10.yes day 10

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And what s stunner it is.

Yes can't knock that. 

 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

4 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

I don’t know why we are discussing this as the snow charts will change every run but Stoke is very near the Peak District ...

Good old Barnsley in the top right corner. Cracking view from my house. Live just to the left of the barnsley. Yellow marker. Stunning view on a clear day. 30/45 mins bike on the trans pennine trail you hit Dunford bridge. Edge of the pennines Stunning absolutely stunning. 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

17 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

GEFS mean at T276. That surface Scandi High is growing run by run. I tend to get excited when the mean hits 1030mb.

Excellent post thanks 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

10 minutes ago, Griff said:

Thank you, I really value these kinds of posts (even when they bring bad news), because they cut through the chaos and noise.

Yes excellent post mate thanks 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Seriously guys the models can't even work out the evolution for later this week, so I reckon next week is beyond redemption. Pretty amazing NH profile for that Vortex from GEM and UKMO... They both look like a rabbit thats expecting triplets... Baby vortices in other words. Are bless... Not so sure about the insistence to place some of that Vortex over North Greenland though next week.. With further warming likely in the next week or so, we could have yet more displacement if not a split event.. Again the models are asking more questions rather than giving out answers. FI starts on Wednesday if you ask me. 

Couldn't be more spot on with FI 72hrs at MOST. 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

Can I order perb 16 from the 18z ens for breakfast please. Joking aside the ens were not great expect on perb 10 and 16 which were close to the - 16 850hpa. Hoping for better in the morning. 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

This is the tease - we're kind of expecting it, once fronts start to disrupt on the models, they often go on to disrupt more around T120/T144 - but models still keen to push it through for now. 

Getting confused so go default Atlantic driven. The mild is not certain for me at all

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Hi evening all. Not great for coldies like me yet i see. Wasn't the SSW predicted to cause issues at the end of month anyway has I'm sure something was mentioned a week or so ago about N. W Europe getting alot colder then. I thinking this is what could happen now to be fair. I don't trust the gfs past say maybe 90hrs now as I'm sure this deep low is causing problems going forward also the mild in my thoughts will most likely disappear in a few more runs etc. Last night's gfs18z was the first to show something colder later on in the month. So my forecast is for an easterly/North easterly to show up in the next 3/4 days. With such a strange deep low/ssw/mjo etc the models are now hitting default Atlantic pattern as a safe bet. The colder weather is coming and I'm pretty confident. Stay safe night all. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Hi,

After a couple (more than a few) Netflix and a small gaming session, I will attempt to deliver a round up of 0z runs.

The GFS is similar to the 18z, actually superb consistency it must be said. 0z from yesterday had a much better Atlantic ridge. Really not great tbh big fat low parked over the UK with daughter vortices brining wet and some snow north. Para is basically the same as the 18z as well.

UKMO looks pretty good to me. Between 120 > 144 it sends a shortwave East but attempts another re-link with the greenie ridge/azores high.

 

The best way out I see of this mess is some good old Atlantic amplification, this will help drive the trough over the UK further South as well as advect colder air, a simple request but one that models really are not feeling right now, hopefully that will change.

If those 2 link. We will be in business 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

No point posting any 00z gfs model crap. Pretty much same as the pub run meh. Low phasing and not pushing enough east. Atlantic riding under greenland high. Uppers around - 6 at the lowest up to 200hr.

Edit. I think the pub run as taking over the early morning run. Basically spot the difference up to 218hr. I'm going to sleep aaarrrrgggghhhh

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

4 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Great post mate..your saying nothing is certain,but then finish by saying things should become much colder soon..sounds like you could be sitting on the fence a little there kid...love it  

I'm just thinking people on here are falling out with the models a bit regarding cold prospects going forward . When I honestly don't think the SSW as finished playing about with the models yet. I really do think a flip in the models towards cold is not far off at all. The 18z gfs show a warm up longer term(FI) Mmmm don't think so haha. Keep on chasing people it's coming. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

57 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lol Feb,...i feel there is room for improvements days 5-8?

after that there is so much scatter(prob due to the SSW )that it's not worth thinking about.

but i will chase it with you

I'm chasing it too lol

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

A flip would be a strong Scandi high in the charts of let's say Monday, Tuesday for day 7-9 (no I don't say d10 ). Out of nowhere as a effect of the SSW. You never know.

  +

 

The whole weather system is a chaotic system. NOBODY can ever predict it's excact outcome!

People seem to forget this as they think that Models calculated by computers with randomized inputs can. Even with a bunch of Master degrees in statistics no one ca. It is impossible!

I'm thinking a large flip too. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

All thoughts were for the cold to come towards the end of the month. Maybe this is just the way we are going to get there. Anything past 3/4 days is fantasy island for me. Models may look  off-it for coldies but I'm positive going forward thru this weekend the charts will change for the better. I'm thinking the models are getting confused at present and the default is for the Atlantic to come thru. My thoughts are for a north easterly/easterly to set up in the last week of Jan and continue thru the first part of February. Bringing the coldest uppers of the winter Declining thru the month as the ssw effects on the pattern dies down. Maybe the second baby ssw warming may prolonge it further thru February but also could stop it. Keep the faith. Nothing next week is set in stone. But I do expect the models to change to ssw cold very soon. Roll on the 18z

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Scrappy Doo chart makes a welcome reappearance on the 18z GFS //:

But, forgetting local weather, just look at how messed up the trop vortex is, and this isn’t going to change any time soon.  Just need to drop lucky, but we’ve been saying that for a while...

 

I think it looks more like a rabbit or an hare lol

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

EC46. Northern blocking. UK/ Netherlands on the edge.

I think the thoughts of any cold moving east was from about end of the month. So those 2m temp anomalies go with that thought too. Maybe last into Feb too. 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

1 minute ago, bazookabob said:

Moderate rain here, the automated met office forecast has it changing to sleet at 5am and snow shortly after. We've had nearly 15mm of rain so far, would have been ace if it had been all snow! Speaking of which, has anyone got any white stuff yet?

Nothing yet in Barnsley 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Good morning all. Let's hope the new thread brings new cold hopes. Looking forward to the 00z runs.