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weathermadbarnsleylad

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Posts posted by weathermadbarnsleylad

    Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi. First Post in here for a while. What is with the moaning on here. My giddy ant. Let's just relax and see what happens. People forget what happened just before Xmas with the downgrade of the cold and how quickly it changed. The models are very volatile this year. A lot can change in a very very short period of time. I'm wanting cold and snow like a lot in here but I'm not going to write winter off on the 3rd of Jan not a chance. To the models. And regarding ecm showing an easterly trying to set up yesterday. I have noticed over the years that the ecm can pick up a pattern at day 10 .get rid of it. Then pick it up a few days letter. It may do it this time. Regarding going forward in the hunt for cold. I reckon a few surprises could pop up at a very short time frame . Maybe 72/96hr. It's all still to play for. Have faith coldies. I certainly have.

    • Like 6

    Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I'm going to keep an eye on developments later next week around the 135hr mark from the icon 00z that's running now(image below) . This is a time when the south westerly makes its way north towards us . At the same time we have deep cold pool of -14/16 850hpa trying to drop south from Iceland area. I reckon in the future runs the south westerlys may not be has strong has forecast by the models. One to watch coldies. See what gfs shows on the 00z

    icon-1-135.png

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, A Frayed Knot said:

    Don't bother chasing the charts. I stayed up to see the weather for the week ahead on BBC that use Meteo.. Mild and wet, some snow in Scotland on high elevation as for down here it's Dry and a damp squid. I'm sure someone is tweaking them charts to get your hopes up. I'm well puddled of but it what it is.. Until the next time of model hunting I bid you all farewell and goodnight. 

    It maybe going mild and wet but I wouldn't put my house on a bbc forecast lol

    • Like 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Hmmm maybe a bit of an improvement on the latest mogreps, definitely a big split still.

    06z navgem says yes.

    mogrepstmpbirmingham (1).png

    mogrepstmpbirmingham (2).png

    animelz7.gif

    yes-danielbryan.gif

    I hold the mogreps in high regard. Navgem maybe not.If they show mixed outcome then you have to wonder if we could really see a flip again. It's could become that the models take on a cold path just has it does with mild. Ps I am 100% not saying they either. But still a chance. According to mogreps I @Kasim Awanis correct in is probability of 55/45% in favour of milder outcome. still close. Big big 12z coming.  Will we see a shift south again. You do wonder..

    • Like 3

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    agree i said this a few times maybe you have to question the models overall on just how good they are..how can they flip so dramatically like that.i think we shold stick to 3-4 days out 

    Yes definitely 96hrs at most sounds about right. All that money invested into the models. I bet its millions of pounds/dollars and euros. Sometimes the weather just does what it wants and we have no control. To be fair that's why I'm obsessed with it. The uncertainty of what to expect.  Also I think if models were 100% correct all the time. It would be boring. Roll on the gfs. You never no. Could be a surprise. We just don't no.

    • Like 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Let's just all take a step back. Maybe the snow for Xmas day this year has gone but 100% we don't no yet. Mother nature will decide what happens and we can't do anything about it. I for one never give up chasing that's for certain. It's in my blood. Yes I'm disappointed especially with what's been shown to us by the models. We move on. OK my thoughts are that something is going on strange this winter with the polar vortex and I reckon we could be in for something really special. 

    • Like 1

    Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Georgina said:

    This may be a stupid question but how can you tell if the op is an outlier and what does that exactly mean does it mean that it’s not worth looking at ? Thanks and sorry for the daft question xx

    Hi the main model run is the black line(gfs main model) on the graphic. If you look towards the left you will see it divert upwards away from the other lines( The other lines are the main models I will say brothers or sister for easy (ensembles)that predict outcomes from the data it's got .Same has the main gfs main model run does(blackline) the outlier part means it has moved away on its own from what its brothers and sisters are saying. Its not to say its wrong but the other brothers and sisters don't go with it. Tried to explain lol. hope it helps..

    • Thanks 2

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, TSNWK said:

    Guys this chase is done.. I personally think the only uncertainty is a little flex over Christmas weekend.. micro details as such.. the big news today is that we lost with the  exception of  gem the Greenland heights that were driving the whole pattern for rest of year and early next year.  That message is consistent and broad.. I'm bewildered why we firstly got them and how they disappeared in the  space of a couple of suites today.. but that is in my view the take away... From today the whole pattern that was looking so promising  has been dropped.

    Your opinion off course but wait a few more runs mate.

    • Like 2

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    All those writing this cold spell off are way to early in my eyes. They l8z has pushed the cold slightly futher south maybe not enough yet but just wait a couple more runs . maybe wait until Tuesdays 12zs runs to write it off. Looking thru the ens at 192hrs I'm still pretty confident of a decent cold/snowey spell going forward. The mean at 192 of -4/-6 is not to be sniffed at. Also some very good ones going cold mid term. Remember this is a very strange synoptic set up so early on in the winter and if most models get signals mixed they default to climate average. Ukmo is the best model in the world in my eyes and maybe/just maybe its on the write path. 

    Take care and peace out man

    • Like 3

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    What an evening. I got stuck trying to get here with all the toys on the road haha . All models are struggling especially the gfs

    This is how I rate the forecast predicted at 5 days out from the models . (This is whatever output is shown) take 10% off due to the current difficulties. 

    Jma/navjem 50%

    Gem/icon 50%

    Gfs/gefs 60%

    Ecm 70%

    Ukmo 80%

    This is from looking at charts 5 days out and seeing which is closer 

     

    Has you can see I'm most confident in the ukmo solution more but its getting very close regarding Xmas day snow/rain etc. All models should have a little respect has sometimes do correctly predict what they show.

    FI is 72hrs I reckon.

    Roll on the 18z.


    Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

    LET'S be realistic about it.. Its a fantastic position we find ourselves in... Pointless getting carried away with one run.... Think the next set will show an improvement again and as others have said its one day... Much better to get the jigsaw. Pieces in place so that the bigger picture means a sustained and eventful cold Spell hopefully.... 

    Very well put. 

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This situation we are in is a very rare event. Throwing toys on a few different model runs doesn't do any good for anyone or our sanity. The big picture for us coldies is very very good in my eyes and I don't expect every run to be perfect from now until Xmas day. Expect more twists and turns but relax and enjoy the experience of seeing it countdown if it does. Things can be learnt by taking a step back sometimes. Plus if you can't stand the heat get out of the forum. Ha ha ha ha peace to all and all whow seek it. Roll on the ecmwf (I'm addicted) 

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    By day 9 the GFS ENS are really poor, can’t spin any positivity on this I’m afraid!!! Can the 06z bring it back, I bloody hope so - and with some of the background signals there’s still a chance!!!

    Day 9 is l00 percent fantasy Island. Opp I give 3/4 days. Ens maybe 7 days at a push. Still not lost yet. Power to the coldies haha. I'm trying lol night all 

    • Like 2
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