Dark Horse

First 20c uppers of the year nudging into the Mediterranean sea from Africa. A sure sign of solar strength increasing at those southerly latitudes.

Even the NASA model going for an easterly right at the end of the month. This model is usually pretty chaotic the further out you go but we seem to be getting consensus for an easterly flow of some kind with most of the models. Upper air temps not to be concerned about at present. They change more frequently than the actual pressure charts. Guaranteed to be different closer to the time

The tail end of the month still looking interesting as far as I can see. Funny how it may arrive at close to the same time as the 2018 beast. As of now though this looks like a watered down version, cold for sure but not the delicious -15C uppers like we had back then. Still time for upgrades though.

Are things starting to look up cold wise? well it does seem like the models are slowly getting to grips with what's been going on in the strat which is a very complex situation. And slowly but surely the ensembles are trending colder each day and there's some decent pertubations on offer like this one I found. Snow spike clustering starting to develop as well and that's never a bad sign.

A bit of early warmth for parts of Spain early next week. Warm enough for shorts and t-shirt

If you live in an urban area snow won't drift all that much due to houses, cars etc as they do a good job at reducing the wind strength. That's not the case on western edges of large fields. During the BFTE there was notable drifting on the huge fields of Littlemoss where I used to live in Droylsden. As soon as you got into the more built up part of town it was level snow but not much drifting.

Great picture especially for the coast. Had 12cm where I was at the foothills of the Pennines about 165m. Lasted on the ground until Boxing day, after that there was no snow at all in Jan or Feb. Had 15cm from the initial easterly on the last couple of days of November and then that slightly less heavier fall in the December, but zilch later in the Winter. Strange mid and end to winter but of course fantastic start. I still think we can get some good snow in March, it's not a late month for it. This below was on 6th March 2016 just a few miles from Manchester city centre in Droylsden at another one of my old places where I lived. I put some pics on here in the NW regional of the snow during the 2018 BFTE as well but that thread has disappeared along with my pictures and I left my phone on the bus with them on it a few years ago, no one handed it in, anyone know where to fetch that old regional thread?

It is rare to get a properly cold easterly in April due to the continent warming up. Almost all of the coldest April's historically speaking have come from a northerly source. Like 2021 for example. I'd be surprised if we get as cold this year, it'll be a tough month to beat as it was the coldest since 1989 or something like that. Had a few snow coverings here but in the sun it wasn't too bad as it's gaining a bit of strength by that point. I remember despite the chilly wind my coat was warm with the sun on it.

Yeah it needs a good shake up now. I think for the most part it's been a boring winter really. Certainly cold at times which has added a bit of interest in an otherwise drab few months, but there's not been a lot of snow and no vigorous Atlantic storms either. What happened to those storms? We've been stuck in no man's land for the most part. I hope this is not the future otherwise I might find another hobby

Decent winter. I remember there being quite a bit of snow and the roads full of slush as I picked up my game for my Sega mega drive. Was around late December 95 in between Xmas and new year when they reopened for a few days, that shop is now something else and not games related. And in the February playing football (or attempting to! as the ball kept getting stuck underneath the snow) with my mates after school. Where has time gone?

I don't see anything to a raise an eyebrow to in terms of any proper cold. Are they still banging the SSW drum in the mod thread? not been in there for weeks. Only light at the end of the (long) tunnel is the Met Office longer range outlook for late month and into March hinting at a small but "increasing" chance of cold. As long as the pros are seeing something worthwhile I will be interested, after all they have access to more models than us. Wouldn't it be just typical that we get one of the coldest March's ever? But I'd take it, had many a decent snowfall in March so it's never too late, any snow is better than none no matter when it falls. I only look for warmth as April arrives as realistically that's when we can start to get some temps into the low 20s. With the longer days means you can sit out in the evening with a drink of choice. Can't do that in March and often it's just not warm enough to begin with. Can't stand heat though but each to their own.

It probably did have a slight effect but not by a lot. The days are lengthening but the sun still isn't strong. I don't think the UV index moves into 2 strength until March and then 3 late March/early April, which it then becomes classed as "moderate" strength by the Met office. And then when you consider places like New York City which is as far south as Naples in Italy can get decent snow and cold into late March yet their sun by then is as strong as ours in late April and early May. So we just need a deep cold source which is often hard to come by for these shores for snow to stick around. As long as it's sub zero all day, then snow and ice won't melt a great deal even well into March. Also to factor in is the UV actually gets stronger at height which surprises people. For every 1000m increase in altitude, the UV radiation level will increase about 12%. So it's not unheard of for people skiing on the higher level slopes to get burnt. Despite a stronger sun the snow doesn't melt due to the temperature being sub zero. We just need deep cold, the UV is a lesser issue until we are a long way into Spring.

With someone who has a bit of interest in Ornithology I'd say it's pretty normal and bang on time at the start of February, they seem to respond to the slightly longer days. Only a small window in the year when they're not really as active and that's between late Nov and late Jan. We are coming out of the dead of winter now and nature starts to stir a little.

If only Not been a February better since round here. Apart from 2018 it just shows for the most part how rubbish February has been for truly severe conditions since 91. Can remember a number of times though in the 90s when the Albert dock not a million miles from you was covered in decent snow during This Morning with Richard and Judy. Back in the days when we didn't have a middle eastern climate!. Looked that way after last summer everywhere cracked, yellow and scorched

GFS operational out on it's own tonight in regards to the easterly, UKMO isn't (at least up to the 6th), JMA and ECM not as promising as well. Still a big spread on the ensembles tonight on both the GFS and GEM with a lot of cold runs so this is far from a done deal. Hopefully we can get an interesting Feb.

Talk of a freezing day after tomorrow April in the mod thread we're not even in February yet and no one knows what's going to happen with the fabled Scandi high in the next few weeks never mind April

Yeah we've had a big thunder "drought" for a long while haven't we? Best event though over the last 10 years was the overnight one from 19th July 2014. Seemed to go on for hours. Absolutely brilliant it was, everyone was talking about it the next day. There was another one not quite as intense but it was still enough to call off the champions league game at the Etihad in Sept 2016. Other than those events it's hard to remember much more as it's been so crap!

In terms of summer yeah I agree and I'm not looking forward to it.... still got a while but slowly it is inching closer now, I have a west facing bedroom which is a nightmare to cool down even if it's in the 20s outside never mind 30s, all it takes is a few sunny days and it becomes a greenhouse in there. And then there's the reservoirs it's a good job we had all that rain in Autumn otherwise we'd have been in trouble by now given how low the reservoirs was in September.

I remember a front coming down from the north giving a few cm in late December 2001. It stuck around for a few days. I still remember tracking it on the met office radar when it was a more basic and on good old dial up internet ...the radar still not much better now really, netweather is better. That was it for snow in that winter, January and February was very mild.. Year earlier we had a cold spell again in the December a bit more intense, remember waking up to a good covering just after xmas and hearing the airport had shut. Winter 2000-2001 was quite good overall better than the previous one, had more snow in the February too. I remember it was my last year in high school and in the February skipping school with mates and going sledging on the hills but we got told off by a farmer being on his land plus it was the time of foot and mouth disease.

Yes I suppose it depends where you are. I've never actually had a snowless winter in this part of Manchester (Tameside) there's always been at least a dusting at some point, even last winter's dire attempt there was a brief one. But I'm not including the decent 4 inches at the end of November. In the Winter 2020-21 I'd agree that there was more snow than usual. Had about 5 separate coverings, something like that but nothing particularly heavy. Best snow I've seen? Feb 1991 easterly, got some decent pictures somewhere too. Jan 2010 comes close though. Don't remember Jan 87 being only little but my mum said she couldn't push my buggy as the snow was bad. So kept me inside for a few days until it started to thaw.

Greece looking like the place to be about a week on Monday as the Euro high works in their favour dragging in bitter air around it's eastern periphery. The Aegean sea becomes a snow machine. Istanbul in Turkey probably getting a clobbering too. The locals in Greece say snow is actually becoming more common. Shame we can't say that! This is what the above can bring to Athens.

Wow 14 years?? Had a bit of snow cover here on 10th April 2021. See below. 2 in that month actually. I had some at the back end of April in 2016 as well where I used to live, woke up to a light covering. Gone by late morning though. Snow in April isn't that unusual here really. Seen it plenty of times.

Less said about the GFS the better with the Azores trying to ridge into Europe later in the run. Long way back for winter from that. It has been an absolute pain for years now. The only parts of Europe that benefits from it is Lapland with low after low barreling into northern Scandinavia, ironically their snowiest kind of set up, and SE Europe/Greece on it's eastern periphery as winds move in from the N/NE. It's just one run though and I am optimistic of something properly snowy into February. Gotta keep the faith

As long as the ensembles continue to churn out charts like this there's always hope for February . Last winter you was hard pressed to find these sorts of charts in FI territory.