Dark Horse

That's usually a sign of a proper cold spell - the cold actually upgrades a little each run, this is what we're seeing. And I wouldn't worry too much about it being bone dry either, there's defintely going to be instability and the models are very poor at grasping these developments sometimes even on the day itself. Of course we could end up snow free, can happen and can't be totally ruled out but I would be very surprised if even near the coast doesn't get some of the white stuff over the next 10 days. This cold spell couldn't have come at a better time, getting close to the solstice, takes longer to warm up in the morning and gets colder quicker in the evening. It's going to be proper Christamassy feeling. Late November to late January best time for proper Winter weather to occur.

On yr.no they have Buxton frozen for over 144 hours or 6 days. Wow!

That is not a shabby Google forecast. Wouldn't be surprised if these temps actually ended up lower given these automated forecasts are often about 2C warmer than the reality and they often do the opposite in summer.

Increasing confidence now of a significant cold spell. But as we know from a certain ECM from a certain year it can go pear shaped at the 11th hour! so my feet still on the ground, well by my tips toes so I'm nearly tempted to pop the cork but not just yet . But in all seriousness IIRC if this cold spell does come off it'll be the first one since 2010 that did not come after a SSW. February 2012 was an ok cold spell here, had a few ice days and 4 inches of snow on the 4th but not sure about a SSW. I could be wrong but January 2013 came after a SSW, February/March 2018 definitely did. So this could be the first very potent cold spell in that we haven't had to rely on a SSW in 12 years! That makes it special

Going to give it a few more days but this could be a very notable spell of winter weather. Ensembles still looking good. Of course the solid green GFS operational doing it's typical thing going bonkers and like a dog with a bone towards the end of the run desperately trying to usher in much milder weather, it'll probably get dragged back by it's lead no doubt closer to the time like it usually does with these freezes. As ever though the waiting game is upon us, still a few more days of ironing things out before I will say to friends and family something notable is coming. As of now though very encouraging signs.

Some intriguing output today. But I'd caution on telling friends and family that a significant cold spell is on the way. Colder than recently though for sure as we go through this week. I wouldn't get too sucked into the Narnia charts just yet despite the delicious temptation. The ensembles however are very good. The 850 temp mean is almost below average throughout which is never a bad sign as is the actual air temps. And in fact we're actually in a persistent easterly flow from as early as Tuesday so it's likely to get gradually colder as we go through this week as we slowly drag in ever colder air from Eastern Europe. Anything beyond this week is not set in stone unfortunately but I have seen FAR FAR worse at this time of year. Have a good week

Hello people. Just thought I'd give a rare thought on where we're headed over the next coupla weeks. Doesn't look like there's any notable cold on the way or early snow. Looking at the ensembles temps look around average. Some scatter (but there always is). It is, however, still rather early. I know we had a decent snowfall at the end of last November but that isn't a particular common occurrence anyway in most Novembers and 2010 style Novembers are rarer still, maybe twice in a lifetime. I feel it's going to be into December now where we have a better prospect of cold and snow. Let's not forget in 2009 we didn't get any snow in November. And the first proper snow didn't arrive until the middle of December and that was an incredible Winter overall. Keep the faith.

What a nice almost Spring like day it has been, reminds me of those sunny calm days sometime in March where you think Winter is behind us now and you can discard the Winter parker. These days Winter is behind us all year round , never begins I'm often a "lurker" but good to see the usual members in here. I'm really not getting my hopes up at all for a cold snowy one this year even though I'd love it if it happened. If you did a Winter forecast every year and said mild you'd be right more often than not. Think I'll get rich outa that ha!

I can believe the 45 degrees above the horizon thing. Here in the Manchester area that begins around the 11th of April and usually from then onwards that is when my skin can get a bit red from the sun. My ancestry is Siberian and East Asian on my dad's side so I have dark hair but a fair skin complexion with it so still burn when the sun is strong enough and my mum is mostly European with ancestry here in the UK and in Ireland from her parents. I wonder if people with red hair generate vitamin D even earlier in the year? as I have seen some studies that say so. Something to do with living in a cloudy climate and their complexion takes advantage of a weaker sun, interestingly this is where most red headed people tend to live in north western Europe where it's cloudier than eastern and southern Europe. My nephew gets burnt really easily and he is proper red headed with loads of freckles.

Earliest lying snow 13th January? Wow has it been that bad over there for a lack of it? I guess the sea nearby to you has a slight moderating influence, I bet more inland Yorkshire does better like Sheffield/Huddersfield etc. We had this here at the back end of last November, a good few inches. I wouldn't say I'm particularly high up either at close to 100m. The winter itself was absolute pants though. Just one brief light cover from what I remember. It was that forgettable!

Glad we had a thunderstorm storm last night. I decided to stay up and had a couple of almighty bangs of thunder a long with torrential rain. Certainly a silver lining on that horrible hot summer. More thunder to come in the next 30 mins? Can see flashes to the south.

Will we get some rain? It has been extremely dry in this part of the region and the reservoirs certainly need the rain in bucket loads. Radar looking interesting seems like there could be a squall line move north through our region within the next couple of hours. I'll be tucked up in bed by then not staying up for it.

Even under the influence of high pressure the Lake District is a rain magnet sounds about right.

Noticeably darker now. So good to not be woken up very early by the rising sun in June and July with the birds going crazy. Entering my favourite slice of the year now - late August to late March.

Looking forward to the longer darker days, colours on the trees (I think it'll be a good display this year), first frosts and snow. Noticing the sun hasn't got the same strength now compared to just a few weeks ago which is a sign summer is slowly ebbing away. Hallelujah.

Precipitation slowly moving NW ward towards us. Just teasing us no doubt before pivoting back into Yorkshire. Bone dry here once again can't even get a decent thunderstorm out of a heatwave these days.

To be fair that's a big IMBY perspective. There's been a notable difference north and south in the region this summer. It's been wetter in the north toward your way with fairly standard conditions. Down this way it's been hotter and drier than usual, everywhere was yellow/brown here (similar to 1995 and 2018) up until we got some rain after the last hot spell. Plus the Pennine reservoirs are less than half full at this point where this area gets water from. Hosepipe ban on the way if things carry on being dry for sure. In terms of floods that you mention, they only affect a small minority of people who are daft enough to live on a flood plain, most people in this country live high enough above a river to not be flooded out. Lack of rain on the other hand effects everyone (general water supply, farmers, manufacturing etc). If drier than normal weather carries on and becomes more frequent then we will have no option other than to plan for the future if this is climate change in action. I have noticed the Azores high pressure further north than normal over the past 4 years too. This is not just giving us drier hotter weather in summer at times but scuppering cold in the winter too as it ridges into Europe preventing blocking highs to our north.

Winter can't come soon enough for me as thunderstorms are looking as elusive as ever in this hot spell, just relentless blue sky and hot sun. What happened to a couple of hot days and on the 2nd clouds would bubble up and things go bang? Now we are turning into a dust bowl. Looking forward to late September when the leaves are visibly on the turn!

The 90s was great. Spent what seemed like all of the time playing football with my mates, watching WWE or WWF as it was known then before they had to change, spending some time on our Sega mega drives and Super Nintendo's and exploring the woods on our bikes. None of us were obese or had a bit of fat on us, we was skinny rakes but now when you look around about 75% of people are overweight including kids. In the 90s Music was pretty good, TV was better than now (maybe there's too much choice and competition now??), more people were genuinely nicer and not as selfish as now, back then you could say what was on your mind and not get cancelled and humour was abundant, nowadays through social media we can get to know all sorts about people and almost every aspect of their lives which we never did before, this had lead to resentment and jealousy as people on Facebook in particular are always comparing their lives with others striving for perfection and probably *a part* of the explosion in mental health issues? mysteriousness about people was great in the 90s before the internet, all you had in general was rumours. Seems like from 2000 each year has slowly got worse in most respects. I'm glad I'm 37 and old enough to remember how good things were. Life wasn't perfect as there will always be ups and downs but it was better than now. People 10 years younger than me haven't a clue what I'm talking about as they won't remember.

Woke up to a full covering of snow here in Audenshaw this morning.

I woke up to a bit of snow cover at my boyfriend's house near Mossley and now I'm almost back home and there's no snow in Audenshaw. Crazy what a few miles can do.

The snow cover was early in the month so it would have been 97. I knew it was either 96 or 97.

Had snow cover here last April and back end of April 2016. I'm not particularly high up either @100m asl. Happens about once every 5 years really give or take, never lasts long mind you with the sun starting to get quite strong. May snow cover on the other hand much rarer, probably have to go back to 1996 if I'm not mistaken during that notoriously cold month. Remember standing on Gorton market (when they had an outdoor market) with the snow beginning to fall and then later on it started to accumulate.

Just a smattering of snow cover here in Audenshaw, mostly on grassy areas but wasn't ever going to be much more than this looking at the models. Just not cold enough to bring anything other than temporary light coverings. Bring on an easterly always delivers here.