ArHu3
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Posts posted by ArHu3
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I wonder how this eruption will change the medium to long range forecast, surely a shock wave this big would have a huge impact
tonga btw?
Any news From
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More snow falling today than March 2018 to January 2021 combined but just as much lying on the ground and cycling to work felt colder and more miserable today @+2C than it did in February @-8C
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2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:
Not sure if this is really the case, but during late February into March especially, I can always remember a warm pleasant week followed be a sharp cold snap.
I always remember some guy, shirt off washing his car in the warm March sun. A few weeks later you guessed it, that car was covered in snow
I still feel a very mild spell in late February/March is more often than not a sign a cold snap is just around the corner. Seen it happen many times before!
Anyway sorry for straying off topic!!
I've definitely seen more white Easters than Christmases but with the exception of 2013 snow in March usually disappears quickly.
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23 hours ago, cheese said:
The cold and snow is nowhere near as widespread now as it was in 2018. We had a max of 2.6C here today following a low of -5C, nothing remotely noteworthy.
In fact, we haven’t managed a single ice day here during this cold spell.
It’s interesting seeing those very cold temperatures in Scotland but it doesn’t change the fact that this cold spell has been very underwhelming for most places.
First time since februari 2012 we can skate here in the Netherlands
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1 hour ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:
Must be a tough gig trying to find a hill to sledge down there.
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10 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
This couldn’t have aged any worse at the moment.
I don’t think it’s too overhyped. Netherlands and Germany are likening this event to 1978, and there could be ice days for over a week and a half. As for the banning part!? You’ve lost me there.
1979 it is not but I'm happy with what we've got, finally after 8 years it's probably cold again
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keep track of this guys twitter, he's been posting quite a bit of EPS of the vortex recently
https://twitter.com/TradeWpower
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16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Hey, @Chasbrown welcome to Netweather!
The obvious answer to that is the ECM. Here are verification stats for the global models at T120:
UKMO usually second, GEM third and GFS and GFS // fourth, although the last three the differences wouldn’t be statistically significant.
But two things:
We are approaching a SSW which means all models will be struggling.
These global models are poor at predicting precipitation at short range, so there are a number of other models that we post when e.g. snow might be imminent. Hopefully snow will be imminent soon, and you will see that in the posts on here. Hope that helps.
Do you have the stats for 240h, iirc gfs actually beats ecmwf there?
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Most ec members only show displacement unfortunately although op still goes for a split
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Troosteloos weer op komst, met storm Bella als dieptepunt | RTL Nieuws
WWW.RTLNIEUWS.NLDat romantische beeld van een witte kerst kunnen we nu echt wel vergeten. Oké, misschien valt er een verloren vlok natte sneeuw, maar dan heb je het ook wel gehad. En de rest van de week wordt ook niet best.
A new record for days without snow cover here in the Netherlands 693 days (and that's for De Bilt it's been even longer where I live)
Anyway Merry Christmas everybody
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1 minute ago, danm said:
And how often have we seen long range forecasts fail? We may not get a 62/63 big freeze but we have far too much of the winter remaining to be writing off any prospects of a wintry spell.
True but failure usually happens one way, high latitude blocking forecasts tend to fail, even in the medium range, whereas atlantic weather is much more predictable
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6 hours ago, danm said:
Wow there really is a deflated mood in here tonight. I’m partly putting it down to the stressful and difficult year we’ve all been through which is maybe making people a little more frustrated and downbeat than usual. I say that because there is nothing unusual about a lack of cold prospects showing in the models in winter and nothing unusual in us getting our hopes up only to be let down. It happens most winters. This is the UK after all. I suspect and hope those people who are taking a break/claiming to bow out will be back.
Is winter over? Ofcourse not, it’s the 11th of December.
this winter was supposed to be frontloaded one and it failed to deliver with basically nothing in the ensembles until after Christmas at least nor do the seasonal models offer any real hope for Jan-Mar which basically show the same as the ensembles
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35 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
A fair share of the output shows phase 6,7.
stuff like this deserves to be in the model thread. ECMWF stuff like this and presumably many others here is really why we watch the model thread
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34 minutes ago, Jason M said:
There are times when the 10 day mean can give a useful view, but I would never trust it without scanning through the individual GEFS at that timescale as it can be hugely misleading. Ironically, as already mentioned the 10 day chart quoted by IDO is a good representation tonight of where we are. At day 15 I wouldn't waste my electricity looking at a mean chart. Completely respect that you hold a different view though and we all have our methods. I really want to see a route to an easterly, but tonight (like for the last two weeks) I simply don't.
like I said, it depends sometimes there'll be black anomalies on even the 15 day charts, when you see those you have a very strong indication that those will really be there, today's day 15 500 hPa anomaly charts shows little signal though
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1 minute ago, Jason M said:
Whilst really not a fan of ten 10 mean charts because they often just plot a middle ground between a number of ludicrous solutions, the mean here is actually fairly representative of the individual GEFS at that timescale. For balance there are still some colder options present as usual nothing of note makes it to day 8 (which is where i start to pay some attention).
10-15 days is still not to far out that the mean will revert to climatology and often you can spot some definite features
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1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:
3 years ago to the day was a few good falls December 2017. Bare this in mind when people say how awesome the current outputs are. It may look nice from a model watchers point of view but on the ground it’s very average looking so far and will stay that way for at least another 10 days, probably more
My daughter's 5th birthday, she still mentions the snow we had then on her birthday
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Now that I have to cycle 16.5 km or 30 min to work, I don't know if I l'm much of a coldie anymore, 0 C and 2 hours later and my feet still cold
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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
The GFS cannot compute why the lows are not moving East, so has decided to give up and stall them near us infinitum.
check @chionomaniac 's post right above yours for an explanation
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1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
ECM is excellent. The complaints going on and the cold spell has collapsed posts are bizarre. It’s 1/12/20....looking nice to me
BFTP
I would call them excellent, just seasonal temperatures, which after 6 years of scorching hot Decembers is sort of a welcome change I guess
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Really strange that the Antarctic isn't affected at all and is at the third (or 4th) highest for the date
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This settles it, we are pretty much guaranteed a very severe winter, since the elfstedentocht (eleven cities tour), an ice skating event in the Netherlands only possible in the most severe winters last held in 1997 and only held 15 times since 1909 is already canceled (because covid)
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What's up with the QBO (around 26km)? More sudden reversals to westerlies sort of like 2016
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22 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:
You can’t be serious? They don’t really know how to treat it yet. Six months from now we may be in a position where it is a manageable condition.
Dead serious, I wouldn't bet an a therapy anytime soon. If you are young and otherwise healthy you have a good chance of pulling through with with the proper medical support should you need it
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by ArHu3
First updates coming in from around
GFS 4, 10, 16, 22
Ecmwf 6 and 18
Ukmo and Gem iirc. 3:30 15:30 UTC