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First updates coming in from around GFS 4, 10, 16, 22 Ecmwf 6 and 18 Ukmo and Gem iirc. 3:30 15:30 UTC

I wonder how this eruption will change the medium to long range forecast, surely a shock wave this big would have a huge impact tonga btw? Any news From

More snow falling today than March 2018 to January 2021 combined but just as much lying on the ground and cycling to work felt colder and more miserable today @+2C than it did in February @-8C

I've definitely seen more white Easters than Christmases but with the exception of 2013 snow in March usually disappears quickly.

First time since februari 2012 we can skate here in the Netherlands

1979 it is not but I'm happy with what we've got, finally after 8 years it's probably cold again

keep track of this guys twitter, he's been posting quite a bit of EPS of the vortex recently https://twitter.com/TradeWpower @sebastiaan1973

Do you have the stats for 240h, iirc gfs actually beats ecmwf there?

Most ec members only show displacement unfortunately although op still goes for a split

Troosteloos weer op komst, met storm Bella als dieptepunt | RTL Nieuws WWW.RTLNIEUWS.NL Dat romantische beeld van een witte kerst kunnen we nu echt wel vergeten. Oké, misschien valt er een verloren vlok natte sneeuw, maar dan heb je het ook wel gehad. En de rest van de week wordt ook niet best. A new record for days without snow cover here in the Netherlands 693 days (and that's for De Bilt it's been even longer where I live) Anyway Merry Christmas everybody

True but failure usually happens one way, high latitude blocking forecasts tend to fail, even in the medium range, whereas atlantic weather is much more predictable

this winter was supposed to be frontloaded one and it failed to deliver with basically nothing in the ensembles until after Christmas at least nor do the seasonal models offer any real hope for Jan-Mar which basically show the same as the ensembles

stuff like this deserves to be in the model thread. ECMWF stuff like this and presumably many others here is really why we watch the model thread