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Everything posted by ArHu3
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
ArHu3 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
First updates coming in from around GFS 4, 10, 16, 22 Ecmwf 6 and 18 Ukmo and Gem iirc. 3:30 15:30 UTC -
I wonder how this eruption will change the medium to long range forecast, surely a shock wave this big would have a huge impact tonga btw? Any news From
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Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
ArHu3 replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
More snow falling today than March 2018 to January 2021 combined but just as much lying on the ground and cycling to work felt colder and more miserable today @+2C than it did in February @-8C -
I've definitely seen more white Easters than Christmases but with the exception of 2013 snow in March usually disappears quickly.
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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
ArHu3 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
First time since februari 2012 we can skate here in the Netherlands -
Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
ArHu3 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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1979 it is not but I'm happy with what we've got, finally after 8 years it's probably cold again
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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020
ArHu3 replied to SqueakheartLW's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
keep track of this guys twitter, he's been posting quite a bit of EPS of the vortex recently https://twitter.com/TradeWpower @sebastiaan1973- 1,801 replies
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Do you have the stats for 240h, iirc gfs actually beats ecmwf there?
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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020
ArHu3 replied to SqueakheartLW's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Most ec members only show displacement unfortunately although op still goes for a split- 1,801 replies
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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
ArHu3 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Troosteloos weer op komst, met storm Bella als dieptepunt | RTL Nieuws WWW.RTLNIEUWS.NL Dat romantische beeld van een witte kerst kunnen we nu echt wel vergeten. Oké, misschien valt er een verloren vlok natte sneeuw, maar dan heb je het ook wel gehad. En de rest van de week wordt ook niet best. A new record for days without snow cover here in the Netherlands 693 days (and that's for De Bilt it's been even longer where I live) Anyway Merry Christmas everybody -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
ArHu3 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
True but failure usually happens one way, high latitude blocking forecasts tend to fail, even in the medium range, whereas atlantic weather is much more predictable -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
ArHu3 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
this winter was supposed to be frontloaded one and it failed to deliver with basically nothing in the ensembles until after Christmas at least nor do the seasonal models offer any real hope for Jan-Mar which basically show the same as the ensembles -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
ArHu3 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
stuff like this deserves to be in the model thread. ECMWF stuff like this and presumably many others here is really why we watch the model thread -
Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
ArHu3 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
like I said, it depends sometimes there'll be black anomalies on even the 15 day charts, when you see those you have a very strong indication that those will really be there, today's day 15 500 hPa anomaly charts shows little signal though -
Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
ArHu3 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
10-15 days is still not to far out that the mean will revert to climatology and often you can spot some definite features -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
ArHu3 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
ArHu3 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Now that I have to cycle 16.5 km or 30 min to work, I don't know if I l'm much of a coldie anymore, 0 C and 2 hours later and my feet still cold -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
ArHu3 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
check @chionomaniac 's post right above yours for an explanation -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
ArHu3 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would call them excellent, just seasonal temperatures, which after 6 years of scorching hot Decembers is sort of a welcome change I guess -
Autumn 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
ArHu3 replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
This settles it, we are pretty much guaranteed a very severe winter, since the elfstedentocht (eleven cities tour), an ice skating event in the Netherlands only possible in the most severe winters last held in 1997 and only held 15 times since 1909 is already canceled (because covid) http://en.wikipedia.org//static/favicon/wikipedia.ico Elfstedentocht - Wikipedia EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG -
What's up with the QBO (around 26km)? More sudden reversals to westerlies sort of like 2016
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Dead serious, I wouldn't bet an a therapy anytime soon. If you are young and otherwise healthy you have a good chance of pulling through with with the proper medical support should you need it