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ArHu3

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  1. ArHu3
    Cold dry conditions aren't good at all but what happens in winter is that people cram together with the heating on and just all infect each other
  2. ArHu3
    So strange, only a wiki article in dutch and german... Hellmann number for a certain period is the modulus of the sum of the below 0 degrees centigrade days. eg a week with average temperatures of -10,-10,10,10,10,10,10 will have quite a remarkable hellmann number of 20 but a very unremarkable 7.1 degrees for an average Koudegetal - Wikipedia NL.WIKIPEDIA.ORG
  3. ArHu3
    Most of these minima years were actually pretty cold eg 81 ( = winter 81/82 ), 85, 86, 2010
  4. ArHu3
    If you look at averages alone you miss possible cold spells followed by warm spells, it's better to look at the Hellmann cold number
  5. ArHu3
    I will remember 2019 as the year of the hottest day ever in the Netherlands, with temperatures reaching 40 degrees in my neighborhood. I don't remember any other memorable event but those 40 degrees were damn hot
  6. ArHu3
    I've looked through all the known major warmings, many were preceded by a marked cold period (in my location, ie. The Netherlands) if the event was a displacement it was never followed by a marked cold period and in case of a split it was some of the times but not all of the time. Like we saw last year when a 3rd fragment ended up right over Greenland .
  7. ArHu3
    If the trop vortex follows these purples we're screwed , southwesterlies until spring
  8. ArHu3
    How's the snow in Tirol and higher up?
  9. ArHu3
    EC has it moving towards Scandinavia and then probably to Siberia, which probably won't be too bad for us since it leaves Greenland open for building heights
  10. ArHu3
    For the past 2-3 weeks the different members ensembles of the various models each went in their own direction and there was no clear signal at all but it appears the MJO will emerge somewhere in sector 6(with a few members in sectors 5 or 7) with a bit of amplitude. We want the MJO in sectors 7,8 and 1 as they favour blocking in our region
  11. ArHu3
    The models seem to have great difficulty with the Indian Ocean Ocean dipole but once the MJO leaves the pick up the correct signal again
  12. ArHu3
    Mjo seems to be gaining even some more amplitude today and I think it will increase more and more in the next few days when the models finally figure out where exactly it will emerge
  13. ArHu3
    It's usually not coldest at midnight but right after dawn, there is still a lot of retained heat from many many intense solar cycles
  14. ArHu3
    this is yesterday's plot but the same problem is still current, because the different members of the ensemble go to such different sectors the average amplitude is low
  15. ArHu3
    Finally EC is getting some grip on the MJO and I think the amplitude for week 2 will be bigger than what the average shows because it still hasn't figured the sector out completely
  16. ArHu3
    The bias corrected looks even better with more amplitude into phase 7 and it looks much better than yesterday's outlook too Today Yesterday
  17. ArHu3
    @Midlands Ice Age could cosmic radiation affect ozone levels? There is of course plenty of cosmic radiation at the poles even during their winters (Edit yes it can and these particles then can aid cloud formation as demonstrated by Svensmark)
  18. ArHu3
    Finally after almost 2 weeks of a mild ensemble in unison for the entire 2 weeks out we see some discord and colder solutions from Christmas eve onwards.
  19. ArHu3
    After a forecasted rebound the 1 hPa winds are forecast to decrease again, let's hope this trend now continues (although in previous years it usually oscillated downwards)
  20. ArHu3
    probably because it doesn't know what to do with the mjo, I guess we just have to wait until the mjo leaves the indian ocean and hope for the best but for the first 10-12 days the EC is actually very certain and I have seldom seen so little spread in the wind direction in the ensemble so far out
  21. ArHu3
    I know it's a period best forgotten but you don't remember mid December 2015 anymore? WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Archives NCEP de 1851 à maintenant
  22. ArHu3
    EC has 1 hPa dropping very sharply back to mid November strength with 10 and 30 hPa following, to me that does not seem that we will get a strong vortex, strong vortices always seem to gain strength in the upper levels first
  23. ArHu3
    No just the graphs, you need a very subscription, @knocker or @bluearmy might have access ...
  24. ArHu3
    EC control evolved to a bitter cold Christmas in the Netherlands but it's just a fi outlier of course
  25. ArHu3
    Now only if we got a slight modification of that EC +216h chart so that it would look a bit more like this
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