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ArHu3

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Everything posted by ArHu3

  1. ArHu3
    We're no longer bottom of the pack but I think the next 20 days will be crucial, since that seems to be the period where other poor years lagged
  2. ArHu3
    It's like the EC in that respect then, maybe it's a feature that makes forecasts shorter term more reliable?
  3. ArHu3
    The de Bilt ensemble unfortunately show a very large majority something between west and southeast but most south, southwest
  4. ArHu3
    EC had the vortex peaking around the 16-17th 1hPa dropping of, usually the lower levels follow a bit later
  5. ArHu3
    Does anyone know why the ecmwf mjo forecast keeps being all over the place for the past few weeks whilst gfs has a clear signal?
  6. ArHu3
    EC is seeing a sharp drop in 1 hPa wind speeds, in previous years the lower levels always followed the 1hPa trend, so hopefully this trend continues
  7. ArHu3
    The EC ensemble for de Bilt is remarkably consistent for the next 11 days, unfortunately is shows nothing much of interest for coldies 15daagse Midden - Weerpluim ECMWF-EXPERT | Weerplaza.nl WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange termijn verwachting van Weerplaza.
  8. ArHu3
    Looks like the EC is picking up the beginning of another warming at the end of the run
  9. ArHu3
    I haven't seen such unity between the ensemble members so far for a long time, look at how little scatter there is in the wind direction (windrichting), usually it's all over the place by day 7-8
  10. ArHu3
    The MJO looks like it's picking up some amplitude again according to the gefs, so we could see some chances blocking again end of December/ early January
  11. ArHu3
    @TomSE12 I too browsed the reanalysis noticed that since the last 150 years the main vortex moved from Siberia to Greenland from the 1950s or so onwards , interestingly the magnetic pole of the earth has been moving in the opposite direction
  12. ArHu3
    the pdf doesn't work edit:works on desktop if you manually change the file extension
  13. ArHu3
    There definitely is a big urban heat effect visible too, London, Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol and several other large cities just jump out as hot zones on the more recent one
  14. ArHu3
    Last year the split began as a tear from bottom to top but a 3rd mini vortex was created too exactly located over Greenland which stopped the downwelling for us again. It was quite obvious from the animation downwelling would fail unless that mini daughter vortex would fade away.
  15. ArHu3
    Check out the animations on https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d to easily understands what happens (too bad we can't see the animations from last year's split)
  16. ArHu3
    I haven't really noticed that but the 12z runs often are better, more amplified than the 0z (and of course the gfs 18z pub run is often just wild)
  17. ArHu3
    The hunt for cold thread last year became a cold ramping echo chamber full of disappointment, so no. I'd rather read several balanced viewpoints in 1 place. And after all these discussions on the forum I found one real sure indicator for a real prolonged cold spell coming: knocker disappearing from the mod thread
  18. ArHu3
    EC has a strong bias towards overdoing amplification and blocking, old gfs had a bias towards flattening and zonal flow but the new GFS.... Anyone knows? In the past if the old gfs showed such patterns in FI they would often disappear again and then suddenly reappear 6-8 days out, usually not as amplified but still a colder spell
  19. ArHu3
    Who still wants to burn their fingers on that, the only way to not do that is to correctly forecast a new mini ice age any other forecast and outcome just leads to people getting upset
  20. ArHu3
    but we know the old GFS wasn't reliable concerning the stratosphere, the new version could hardly be worse
  21. ArHu3
    Well we know from previous year the gfs old version wasn't really that good in forecasting the stratosphere, often it would miss the oscillation at the tail end and end up overshooting forecasting almost always way too much decrease. In previous years the gfs basically saw a ssw at the end of each run for the entire winter
  22. ArHu3
    Looks like the vortex will even come to visit us too next week around the 3nd of December before going to southern and Eastern Europe https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d
  23. ArHu3
    Gem comes out as 2nd best actually https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/plwww_3m_ens_tigge_wp_mean?facets=Range,Medium (15 days)%3BType,Verification&time=2019092300¶meter=24h precipitation&score=CRPSS&area=Extra-tropics
  24. ArHu3
    My bet is the gfs is right, EC shows a big jump in the 1 hPa winds and from what I have seen in previous years the lower levels of the vortex will soon follow
  25. ArHu3
    @Weather-history what is the winter index, same as hellmann number (accumulative of subzero average temperature)
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