ArHu3
-
Posts
987 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by ArHu3
-
It must be partly due the location, in de Bilt 11 winters have been colder than average since 1987, warmest was +2.6C warmer but coldest 5.8C colder than average
-
Nope, this was just looking at major warmings and hellmann number (in De Bilt but that location seems to be a reasonable reference here on this forum)
-
No, just look at that epic cold spell (in the Netherlands) February 2012 and the gfs predictions shortly before that cold spell
-
I think the big global models have a tendency to underestimate the cold, at least pre-2013, they might have improved though.
-
That was a really sucky winter, as were 1960, 68, 77, 88, and 2004 (winters with december or early to mid January warmings)
-
Another global driver you might want to look at is Pdo, pacific decadal oscillation. When I see the historic pdo it always strikes me as to how well it correlates with historic temperatures in Europe
-
I have seen plenty of +144h pretty nice ukmo charts get downgraded, its charts never look as exciting as ecmwf but still good, do I guess it has a slight overamplification bias or errs on the slow side
-
You can check historic data here: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php
-
62-63 was enso neutral though
-
Last year gfs teased us almost all winter with one of these but it stayed forever past 192h or do, only to finally materialize mid February. I'll believe it when it is modeled around 168h
-
We saw similar extraordinary 2 sigma drops last year being modeled (and almost verifying) only for the zonal winds to come back with a vengeance Oh and these winds are @ 65 degrees, not 60 where they need to reverse for a true ssw
- 3,859 replies
-
- 2
-
-
- stratosphere
- winter
- (and 1 more)
-
I'm on mobile, so I could just see the standard deviation map of the the ensemble , over there something odd happens too: uncertainty in the model first increases but then starts decreasing again towards the end ?
-
I'm no expert but I think this could be very bad for the pv, as these blocks can often be precursors for ssws
-
And @ only +120h, ecm is seldom wrong at that range
-
In the past all models seemed to have a tendency to underestimate the cold and snow was often a last minute surprise
-
Yesterday iirc Judah Cohen tweeted that in spite of all this activity GFS saw no pole ward wave activity Flux except for in the oper (but none in the members). Has this changed (more member support) ?
-
It's november too on Canada's pacific coast but there is snow up to such low latitudes that it would be the equivalent of Southern France /northern Spain here in Europe. Don't they get warm pacific westerlies there?
-
The ECM ensemble mean even at day 10 still is pretty good though, not much different from last night's The ECM operational is a warm outlier, the ensemble is much better
-
I was looking at the snow cover charts and the whole world down to the 45 degrees latitude seems to be covered with snow, except for Europe but on the pacific coast of North America there is plenty of snow. Don't they get warm pacific westerlies there?
-
When you see a clear signal in the mean it is usually pretty significant but when you don't see any clear signal it doesn't mean nothing is happening, so you need to look at spread and individual ensemble members
-
The ensemble mean still shows pretty strong blocking in both the pacific and Atlantic though
-
Isn't it that these blocks increase the chance of a ssw later on? https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Huw_Davies4/publication/234287840_Blocking_precursors_to_stratospheric_sudden_warmings/links/550aa2cd0cf285564094f8c5.pdf?inViewer=true&disableCoverPage=true&origin=publication_detail Looking at the article we would prefer pacific blocking though
-
You can compare model verification here, you can look at different regions and parameters http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/
-
From experience last 2 winters ECM overamplifies, GFS underamplifies and UKMO is the goldilocks model @ +144h
-
I always thought that messed up date format was something the US inherited from the British ? seriously what is the date format in the UK? Oh I hate that date format too, messes up sorting so bad (hate the / too, looks too much like a 7 or 1,especially when written, use yyyy-mm-dd, or dd-mm-yyyy if you are old fashioned and not practical minded )
