The Weather Dragon

My heart says - staller over Wales tomorrow with copius amounts of snow. My head says the dreaded Rain possibly preceded by sleet or snow

Countryfile forecast is giving South West Wales Heavy Snow for Tuesday Woody - Touch & Go - Huge Blizzard or Cold Rain - Cold persisting all next Week Max temps 4C

I think that it is the temp being around 1C warmer that expected that has foxed the Met office - Snow is Moderate here and would easily accumulate if the temperature was around 0C - Must be the same with you woody

Temp 1C with Moderate Snow - not really settling - quite dissapointing but exactly as forecast

Amazing to see how this precipitation has developed over SW England/Wales. Light/Mod snow here in pembs - nothing in the SE. Advice - don't watch BBC forecasts (except Rob McElwee).

Woody - we will see some light possibly moderate snow today & overnight into tomorrow - not amounting to much - that's about it for us until the next cold spell which could be soon. Milder (not exceptionally mild) air will be with us (pembrokeshire) by tuesday

Yes this band of precipitation is still 'under development' there could well be some local suprises

Difficult to call for today & tomorrow - Snow yes but mainly light & with a slight thaw unlikley to lead to sig accumulations - Atlantic definately back from Tuesday with some heavy rain around. Signals of another push of cold towards next weekend.

My current thinking is for the South West of Wales & coastal Southern Wales in general to miss out on any snow events from Monday evening onwards. For a snow event to occur with an attack from the SW/W we need a pressure build stretching up to Iceland to maintain the undercutting cold. Here are two excellent examples of such synoptic patterns that occured in Jan 82 & Jan 85 producing blizzards for much of South/Mid Wales. We haven't got the rising pressure up around iceland this time and so we can expect rain from Tuesday onwards / possibly some snow on the leading edge of any advancing fronts. In summary some light snow tomorrow and Monday - feeling bitterly cold with windchill - then a slow warm up from Tuesday with rain at times.

Yes - Looking at the Faxes it does seem that the block will be stronger with the lows taking a more southerly track - could be battleground scenario for Wales - interesting times & definately an upgrade

I think that it will be mainly cloudy with only light snow flurries on Sunday - we won't get much out of this

METO warning out for Sun,Mon,Tues & Wed for South West Wales - Some uncertainty over the track of the lows - could be exeptionally heavy snow or Sleet/Rain

If GFS 06z verifies then we are in for another bitterly cold week with a raw SE Wind - little thaw I would add.

BBC News 24 suggesting that the cold will recede next week - all eyes on ECM

No doom & gloom from me - We've just enjoyed an unprecedented cold spell here in Pembs - lying snow for nearly 7 days now - that is quite remarkable for this area. I'm not just basing my assumptions on GFS alone - I'm using a mixture of experience of local climate and weather charts etc. Woody - if the irish sea streamers had passed over us yesterday & today we would have been digging ourselves out!!!

I'm just talking about my area SW Wales - Pembs/carms - Eastern counties may hold onto the colder weather untill the end of next week

GFS shows a perfectly plausible solution IMHO - all eyes on ECM

I've got a nagging hunch that the weekends events will be dissapointing for much of us - a thaw will be setting in by as early as next tuesday with temps approaching 6/7 C

Cluster of showers beginning to form in the Northern Irish Sea - likley to affect Pembrokeshire in the early hours as the wind veers Northerly

Hi Woody - do you think that we'll get some snow showers - early tomorrow in pembs

Heavy Snow for the past hour in pembrokeshire (see radar)

All schools now closed across pembrokeshire - roads becoming dangerous

Very Heavy snow now pushing across pembrokeshire - White Out conditions here in Johnston

There should be some heavy snow in North Pembs/Carmarthen now - Schools beggining to close in the North of Pembrokeshire - South Pembs from Letterston down will miss this batch of precipitation

There is an area of very heavy snow that has developed & should affect North Pembs & most of carmarthenshire soon