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The Weather Dragon

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  1. The Weather Dragon
    I've got a hunch that we will not see any significant/severe cold spell now. Was talking to a friend who works at METO Exeter. They are not expecting any major disruption with this cold spell. One look at the models tonight would seem to back this up. The colder pool of upper air slides into France this weekend - just brushing the far South East corner of England (hence the METO warnings for Kent). Any real significant cold keeps getting put back in the model runs - Time is running out.
  2. The Weather Dragon
    Excellent potential across all models for next week - the cold pattern is now well established & we could well be looking at a very wintry spell of weather towards next weekend. Another exciting week of model watching coming up. We couldn't ask for more.....could we?
  3. The Weather Dragon
    The huge low pressure system in the Eastern Atlantic has a progged central pressure of 939mb on current 18z fax chart - I haven't seen a central pressure so low for some time. Snow is often a nowcasting event - lets get the cold first & establish a cold pattern - Snow will follow
  4. The Weather Dragon
    What a Winter - having already experienced some excellent synoptics this winter how fortunate are we to have another potentialy exciting cold spell developing in a realistic timeframe. Models are firming up on the evolution now. I am looking no futher than T96 at the moment - and am delighted at the cross model agreement up to that stage. Once again a truly absorbing winter.
  5. The Weather Dragon
    Just a little off topic but still relevant - the size of the low pressure system out in the Atlantic on Saturday is amazing the system nearly covers the whole of the North Atlantic.
  6. The Weather Dragon
    Total 'big 3' model agreement at 120 - no searching for a cold spell in FI & a knighthood for Jay Wynne
  7. The Weather Dragon
    Big change on GFS, this weekends low never really makes inroads & then starts spinning back into the Atlantic as pressure rises to the NE - pressure would rise sooner if it wasn't for the norwegian shortwave. Amazing cosidering the amount of energy in that Atlantic low pressure system - this is no ordinary block.
  8. The Weather Dragon
    The 'Jay Wynne Curse' a new meteorological term
  9. The Weather Dragon
    West based negative NAO becoming established - mild S/SW for us - block is diminishing to the East. Welcome to a mild & wet February.
  10. The Weather Dragon
    Very confused outputs at the moment - taking everything into consideration I am leaning towards an Atlantic influence. 70%-Atlantic, 30%-Cold//Blocking.
  11. The Weather Dragon
    look no further than 144
  12. The Weather Dragon
    GFS falling into line with ECM and METO - the easterly is dead and buried now - a lesson learned reg FI charts - I remember reading a few years ago on here not to go beyond 144 hours when looking at models - Excellent advice.
  13. The Weather Dragon
    Upgrade on GFS 06z brings in easterly much earlier - this evenings runs from GFS, ECM & UKMO could be interesting
  14. The Weather Dragon
    Anything could happen after the 96-120 hour period - the atlantic may not nessecarily 'Crash through' as I said before we need to see some cross model agreement around the 120-144 timeframe.
  15. The Weather Dragon
    The UKMO 144 hasn't verified at all well this winter - a point to bear in mind - only a couple of weeks ago it was on it's own in suggesting an easterly outbreak.
  16. The Weather Dragon
    Hi Woody - I think that we can expect some wintry showers today & tomorrow turning increasingley to Snow. The problem is with this setup is that you could either get hit hard or nothing at all - The line of showers flowing from the Irish sea is beginning to pep up now. Best to keep watching the radar.
  17. The Weather Dragon
    The Pembrokeshire dangler looks like it's running through the heart of Carmarthenshire on latest radar!!!
  18. The Weather Dragon
    Probability in an easterly continues to reduce today - ensembles more scattered in the medium term - UKMO steadfast & Atlantic ready to fire up. Easterly & dream synoptics always have been in FI. Use 144 as a medium term benchmark & look for cross model support at this timeframe
  19. The Weather Dragon
    Cold is even further into FI now - dissapointing
  20. The Weather Dragon
    Llanelli eastwards won't see anything from this setup - as highlighted by the updated METO advisories
  21. The Weather Dragon
    It could quite easily flip - as it has done before with shorter timeframes
  22. The Weather Dragon
    This chart is superb ..... Problem is that it's way out in FI & more than likely won't verify.
  23. The Weather Dragon
    So.....a few days into this saga and signs of any easterly remain in FI territory, probability if anything has reduced. Like I said in a previous post I will dismiss all thoughts of an easterly until I see cross model agreement at 144 hours.
  24. The Weather Dragon
    I have rarely seen such an extensive cold pool over Central Europe as is projected in GFS 06z FI - This pool has escaped direct from the Artic - I think now that some sort of Easterly is on the cards - it's a matter of fine tuning
  25. The Weather Dragon
    Exposed Northern & Eastern Coastal areas could recieve some heavy snow showers during the projected Northerly this weekend - all will depend upon wind direction and developments of instability etc. For example here in Pembrokeshire we are an exposed Western coastal region and benefit from instability forming snow showers over the Irish Sea. This projected setup often gives us our highest risk of snow.
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