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The Weather Dragon

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Everything posted by The Weather Dragon

  1. Why are we concerned regarding GFS - it hasn't had a clue over the last three weeks in the medium term - very poor performance. UKMO has been the king pin in handling this block - even here there has been some error, for example Mondays undercutting low is a much weaker affair than modelled a few days ago.
  2. Eye - I wouldn't trust those predicted temps they are always a good 2/3 c overcooked for our area. Met had us for 2 today - didn't get above 0 here
  3. Spot on by the met office in my opinion. The red warning was justified because the potential was there.
  4. Good few inches overnight in Johnston - just south of Haverfordwest. Very sleety now - temp 0.8 c.
  5. No weather forecast is set in stone - this could turn out to be a big letdown - have witnessed this many times before
  6. Heavy snow will settle on wet surfaces - have seen this many times with rain to snow events
  7. I'm still sceptical about this event especially for the marginal areas of Wales. It hasn't been cold all week. Most major snow events that I have experienced in 40 years in SW Wales have been preceded by bitter cold - we just haven't had this. Usual areas will get snow - not holding out much hope for anything significant elsewhere.
  8. Would this be just areas along the coast or the whole of south Pembs
  9. Brady - this is a huge/significant upgrade from yesterday - and dont forget this could upgrade further for us - this in a complex and evolving situation.
  10. Terry Wogans famous quote on Radio 2 during the 1982 blizzard - " Wales is cut off "
  11. Brady - there does seem to be an upgrade for Pembrokeshire - what are your thoughts on this - I still feel we may be on the wrong side of marginal.
  12. Brady is right - if the westward correction is not repeatable in tomorrow's output then it's cold rain for the south-west.
  13. That is some shift west - in a short space of time - in 1982 it was also very marginal for the far SW with most forecasts predicting a brief snow to rain event - we all know what happened next!
  14. This is marginal for Pembrokeshire - but if we stay on the right side and the block holds and intensifies we could have a dumping
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