ghoneym

Some nice thundersnaw there!

levenmouth snow shield has been breached short lived flurry for now looking at the radar but progress nonetheless !

Absolutely! traffic starting to slow and back up, amber warning should have been in place

That is quick snaw! one minute dump! lol

The current state of affairs....just had a massive blob of pink over my location on the radar for the last 20 minutes and the sky looks loaded but no fall out mon the snow!!!!!!

The PDF was a bit scewed this morning but just starting to see the low modeled on the second chart, following John's rule above I would say track will be through northern Scotland at its center?

Snaw inbound ! Snaw Snaw Snaw

Just spotted this cheeky little low pressure system from the chart on your link Dennis!

Latest update from meteogroup.

Screenshots of a weather update service we use at work. Might be useful for close range detail. I think from what I read they draw their own charts based from data from ECM / GFS / HIRLAM. We get updates every 4 hours or so, I can update when I can on here or maybe on the short range thread?

After reading that document knocker posted the link to, and from what i can gather, the MJO is active during la nina states and not so much during el nino states. So what i am taking from Mr Ventrice's tweets is that he is merely highlighting the fact that the MJO is active, and seeing as we are in a la nina state this is not unusual. Is he purely showing off the effect of the west to east trade winds from la nina meeting the easterly moving MJO and it's forcing effect on the jet streams causing intensification? I assume this is a typical event during a la nina state? Also what is meant by "doing work" on the NH circulation? Sooooo many questions....sorry ?

Thanks knocker ?

Looking at the above tweet from Knocker, I was under the impression that the relative strength / intensity of the MJO was signified on the phase chart above, by the points / track being further away from the globe centre? Looks very close in the above instance however the way that tweet plays out, it looks to be signifying a greater than usual intensity? Any help with basics on interpreting the MJO phase diagram would be appreciated thanks ?

A bit over my head (which has already exploded trying to pick all this stuff up ?) but I found this on tinternet for you https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/29/magnetism-and-weather-interconnections-2/

I'm from a snow starved part of Scotland but I understand why the guys often don't mention us, we are very fortunate to live in a country where we are topography enhanced compared to many low lying areas down South, also by far the majority of folk actually posting in the MOD forum are from down south so go figure.

I'm down in leven right on the banks of the forth pretty much and looking at this from the met i recon we are in for snow flakes mate, marginal and probs won't settle but keeping the fingers crossed ?

As a complete beginner to the subject (Teleconnections) I have to say reading the post so far on here have ignited a flame of interest! As a regular lurker and very occasional poster in the MOD thread I have seen many of the teleconnection experts posts and pretty much whizzed past without so much as a glance. Mainly due to feeling out of my depth with regards to understanding, so first of all a big thank you for starting this thread @Bring Back1962-63. The above post had me thinking that as the earths rotational speed must be influenced by energy from a certain source. Seeing as these changes in rotational motion effect the atmospheric conditions, who are the main players in this? From what I have read since it appears that the ocean tides are one of these "main players". The tides affect the earths rotation in two sharply contrasting ways. One way, caused by tidal friction, which produces an extremely slow secular change in rotation. The other way, caused by the continual movements of the tides about the planet, produces very small but very rapid changes in rotation. Seeing as the tides are influenced by the lunar phases I was wondering why I haven't seen any charts / graphs relating to this and the effect it is potentially going to have on GLAAM further down the line? (Further down the line as I wouldn't imagine each small change in lunar activity would instantly change any of the teleconnections used on Earth) Also I think I am correct in saying that the lunar cycles are a constant and therefore should be a good overall teleconnection starting point? I may well be barking up the wrong tree here as I am experiencing information overload and my head is about to explode

Again using this daft chart I have The "normal" temp for 10mb is -20 deg C so if the anomaly chart above is showing the warming to be +60 deg C then surely the "normal" temp at 10mb would be -80? Confused.com

Somebody help me out here please, I'm maybe just being thick (as usual), but looking at this chart 50 mb temps at their coldest look to be -60 deg C. The cold part of the vortex on his 50mb chart shows -80 is the vortex at that height just exceptionally cold this year in the NH or is the chart I post just out of date / wrong? Also does anyone have a similair chart that just shows the trop and strat with the same parameters and variables? I find the chart usefully to visualise what some of these posts show. Cheers

+ + = ? Simple math?

Someone may know the answer to this. How rare is a middle of winter easterly? Are they typically front end or rear end of winter? Loving seeing this setup modelled, hope the GFS isn't the party pooper that steals the microwave and poops in the kettle!

06z run for sat into sun from the GFS 12z run GFS for same time I think you have to look very closely but this will be the turning point for the GFS, a very small eastward move of lower heights towards southern France from southern Spain and a slightly more southern trajectory of energy once again for the moving block formation. It all appears to be moving in the direction of the ECM / GEM outlook. Slowly but surely for Coldies.

On a positive note for the GFS (unless boring predictable model operational GFS outputs are your thing ), it has the makings of the start of a SSW right at the end of the run. FI stuff granted but one to keep an eye on for future runs. Another well into he future starting input for the models to deal with. I would have posted this in the Strat thread but tbh its overwhelmingly technical in there & I get the fear when I start typing. (monkey with hands over eyes emoji)

In terms of model output, the Met office have a lot of data to work with. The above chart shows this well. Also interesting point to note is that the Met office also hold the licensing rights for the ECMWF in the UK "The UK Met Office is a member of ECMWF and a leading licensing agent of ECMWF products. and services. Commercial users can license data from the ECMWF catalogue via any of the nominated member state licensing agents." Bit of a monopoly if you ask me

Out to T+174 by the looks of it