ghoneym

The tweeter mentions Exeter, and Ian Ferguson mentions the centre of the low which is almost over Exeter, I think he is talking about the low down there rather than the "wave" West of the Hebrides .

ECM with a nice easterly at the end of the run. Englandshire feeling the brunt of it.

Wednesday into Thursday brings some strong gales and plenty of rain to the far North and West of Scotland, the Jet in overdrive for a short time before the the cold weather approaches into next weekend.

Been meaning to ask this for a while, why are the previous runs on the GFS not available at +237 & +240 ? Cheers

As Ian Ferguson mentioned in a tweet earlier today "Mixed signs by mid-month & after: ECMWF anticyclonic; GloSea cyclonic (to SW & markedly cyclonic late Jan)." GloSea picking up the signal so is the GFS, FI fair enough but long range its something being picked up by a few Models.

Since everyone is getting the crayons out tonight thought I'd better join in Red line roughly what tonights ECM is showing for the same timescale (+144) I think the energy from the high pressure in the atlantic moving N/E will amplify the Jet and turbo boost the incoming Low we see on the ECM +192 chart. Wet and Very windy for Scotland bringing white stuff in Blizzard formation to Higher ground.

This is the Scandi high in Question from the 12Z. -10 850's, easterly / south easterly winds

The 18Z has the depression tearing through central Scotland with 80 MPH + gusts, if this verifies then I would expect localised power cuts, travel disruption and camp stove dinners for a large population of Scotland, really not trying to be sensationalist but this Christmas day storm does not appear to be shifting.

The GFS has been fairly consistant at predicting the low pressure fronts, take storm Angus for example, was well predicted by GFS before ECM UKMO etc. The backround signals for the 2 storms have been there for a few days now well in to FI but have maintained there consistency especially on the more prominent runs 00Z & 12Z. Looking at the 06Z vs the 12Z the difference is the angle of the jetstream influenced by the downstream high pressure over the southern Mediterranean. If that pressure builds further from now until the big day, then the jetstream will hopefully push further north and the storm will miss mainland UK maybe battering Shetland / Orkney furthesmost North Scotland, However if the Jet digs south then I firmly believe based on the recent runs that We are in for a battering. 06Z "flat" Jetsteam allowing storm to whizz on through, potential damaging winds but over with fairly quick. 12Z shows the Jetstream digging further south east into northern france as there is less pressure in the southern Mediterranean allowing the storm to slow in its movement to a downstream position. For me Snow, precipitation, Blizzards are best left until 2/3 days out. Better Idea then. P.S first post of any Meaning in terms of forecasts so be gentle please