Matty88
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Posts posted by Matty88
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Radar being a little odd today as we are now having consistent (very) light snow in Ely - but nothing showing? Either way - not complaining at all! A sign of things to come I hope
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Just checked in again on the radar but not too much to get excited about just yet for inland EA, I suspect that will change into tonight as the vorticity and wind direction shifts. A great post by Nick earlier that showed this sequence and NW shift.
Some posters are expecting the band to stay static in its current position into tomorrow but I’m not onboard with that - it may seem static until this evening but it will shift and change into convective bands of showers I suspect and effect different places. Most models seem to agree with this. The interesting bit will be how much snow it can deliver later on.
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I suspect now the wind is changing direction into a more E/NE things are beginning to shift and the convective dynamics are beginning to take shape
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Nothing immediately obvious on radar but we are starting to get flurries now in Ely, a couple of the streamers/convective bands beginning to fire perhaps? Might be a good sign...
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43 minutes ago, kold weather said:
There will be plenty of convection around for prime spots, especially by tomorrow evening, fully expect to have a Kent streamer in play by then.
This event has a whiff of the Feb 05 fail thus far with regards to the front if anyone who has been around long enough remembers!
Edit - should still be fine for Kent, SE Essex and Suffolk though, watch for a pulse between 6-8am.
Remember that well - it is a very similar set up (unfortunately) of the PPN coming out of Europe and being blasted to bits by the stiff wind and transpiring to ‘a few flakes in the wind’ for most, Beeb and meto were convinced We were in for 3-4 inches, most got barely a sprinkling.
I reckon once the uppers drop low enough it’ll be all about the convection but currently I’ll stick my neck out and say it’s fair to say the preliminary band has failed...
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Right people ignore your apps and meto warnings it’s doing my head in lol just look at the radar. No excuses...Apps are based on information that is anything up to 6-12 hours old
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Does anyone get the sense the models are potentially (and hopefully) undercooking the convective potential for tomorrow in particular? Some are all about the front, others are factoring some convection in elsewhere (North and West of the front). You do have to wonder... I’m not convinced this is a SE corner only event yet.
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GFS showing a real potential for the bitter weather extending well into next weekend and beyond, but, at hinting that it will be drier at the same time by that point. I'm sure there will be many more evolutions yet though. A really tasty time for us weather enthusiasts! For sure it looks like the SSW is showing us results.
Currently tipping it down outside at the moment by the way... transition to cold underway.
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Tonight aside next week is looking bitter. GFS 06z hinting (again) the cold will be extended into next weekend. It always over-cooks the initial Atlantic breakdown. It’s also giving us a more direct feed of cold through next week - I think it’s gonna get very interesting come late next week !!
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6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Not a big change ...
The amber warnings been updated, but I’m sitting here slightly nervous about tonight now - I’ve a feeling the snow line could be quite defined initially, despite my earlier thoughts. The yellow zone will probably be updated later today or tomorrow - likely to reduce the initial impacts on western parts of the region. On that basis I don’t want to be sat here until late tonight preparing myself for a fall!
I suspect more western and northern areas will be affected as Sunday goes on and into Monday as it’s looking like the precip band nudges north
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There is a definite trend in pushing the cold further into next week too - it’s either going to turn into an epic slider or end with a bang and give a widespread dump Thursday into Friday (maybe later). This upcoming spell is far from defined as yet... more fun and games to come even after Sunday I suspect.
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Can’t quibble at the GFS 18z pub run - not at all. Game on for EA, SE and into East Midlands tomorrow night and Sunday bring it!
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I was a bit pessimistic a few days ago when the wind was more south easterly and it looked like turning into a bit of a Kent clipper for a run or 2 but since then the charts have been curving it into more of a north easterly and Traditionally that favours EA a bit more so I’m hopefully of a more widespread event. I’ve seen the Euro 4 and like the last few times think this is not showing anywhere near the right extent.
Am I still hopeful for my location? Absolutely.-
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Absolutely - anyone on this forum please DO NOT take the warnings OR apps too literally.... the Meto are correct to include the yellow warning zone for the large swathe of EA/SE. I still suspect once those uppers kick in the initial atmospheric response will be quite widespread with showers/precip. This isn't a stalling front scenario like the last few times....
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Different charts leading to different scenarios - some throwing most of the snow more 'centrally' to EA and some are keeping it in the SE corner. The charts I have seen predicting the latter have not been the most reliable so far this winter ... which leads me to believe the most likely scenario leads to Eastern parts of EA and Essex/Suffolk in the risk zone for substantial snow. Question marks remain on the southern, northern and western extent ...
I am hopeful that overall the precip is going to be quite extensive this time, it seems to be looking more that way (therefore less marginal with locations).
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Although not as cold the wind direction seems very similar to 2018’s beast - which doesn’t bode that well for us south of the wash post Sunday, I think our best hopes for good snow are Sunday otherwise we may be watching on as the North gets battered (again)... hope I’m wrong though !!
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16 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:
I get a feeling sundays event is tracking much further south and east. Yesterday it was far further north and west (with most of EA over into northern home counties) but today I see it is tracking lower and I think by end of tomorrow the sweet spot may be east Sussex Nd Kent and areas of Suffolk.
Shame for those north and west of London
The only charts predicting that are the ones that have been atrociously wrong so far this winter, that should give us enough hope !! GFS will be the best bet for this IMO...
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Some (not all) charts trending the precipitation south and east on Sunday now but I still don’t think it’ll end up that way... at least I hope it doesn’t. GFS still showing good optimism for much of EA and the midlands. Looking at the direction of travel I’m still optimistic it’ll not turn into a Kent clipper... hopefully the upcoming charts can reinforce the wider risk rather than reduce
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Absolutely nothing ‘nailed on’ for Midlands South yet from Sunday onwards - the lows are causing issues and there’s now as much chance of a milder wet and windy spell as there is an easterly. Disappointing how it’s gone, but there is hope. I have no faith in what the meto or beeb say though - they always seem behind on the latest model developments. Still a lot to play for mind but notable cold spell diminishing and being watered down, unless your in the hills up North.
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1 minute ago, Polaris said:
Snowing heavily here
Where - the North Pole?
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Drying up here in Ely, Cambs, after a bit of wet weather earlier.
Keeping a close eye on next Mon/Tues - looks to me like the mild air will kick out any earlier snow but the 00z did show a bit of potential for the cold air to shift more stubbornly and therefore that could be a good chance for us in EA for at least a temporary decent covering..
ps I still can’t believe we are talking about locations!! A lot of us can’t see the locations on your posts, just add it to your post - it’s so easy and simple! There are a few on here that are being silly about it now, a shame.
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So yet again - GFS wins with the precip band position? Seems that way...
Currently grey, windy and cold with some drizzle in the air in Ely, Cambs. Snow unlikely to settle much today where it does fall? I would be surprised , unless under the heaviest PPN... never the less, flakes will be nice where they fall!
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Following the recent rain and saturation I've never seen the rivers so high around Cambridgeshire - it really is concerning. A few more spells of heavy rain (due next week) and I can foresee real issues, the Env Agency must be on full alert right now...
As for snow/rain, it's looking as though Saturdays front is looking too far South for much of EA now? And I suspect that it will be mostly a rain and sleet event for those away from high ground and Wales. The chances for frontal snow get better as the weekend goes on and the cold air digs in. That said, I'm not convinced (despite the Met-office warning) that Monday will produce much in EA or the Se, I think it may be a bit of initial sleet and then back to heavy rain as the mild air is making major inroads by that point.
I'm getting hopeful though that we will see some deeper cold later next week (although a long way off) . Deeper cold but also drier, so not necessarily a snow fest to go with it but details are low at this point. Drier wouldn't be a bad thing!!
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1 hour ago, Jamie M said:
Slight northern bump in position on UKV 03z compared to 15z, just makes it further E into the more conductive cold air that's undercutting it. I'd expect it to start to shift south in the next few runs so I'm really not raising any hopes.
Oh no not the UKV charts appearing again These charts need binning after last weekend, surely? They were so wrong!
I'll be be keeping an eye on the GFS over the next few days as I believe that is the way to go, but I can see arguments for a South and North shift going forward... inconclusive as yet! Interesting times.
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
in Regional
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Ok the snizzle is getting a bit more potent here now... have a feeling I’m in direct line with that streamer coming into Norfolk... flakes getting bigger too.
Just about enough to turn the moss a tint of white!