Matty88
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Posts posted by Matty88
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Very unusual (for us) to be getting upgrades just prior to a cold spell, but I half suspected it was on the cards as many have been saying the models have a tendancy to over-inflate low's especially with cold air in place and the Greenland Block.
With the LP flow dominating I think we all need to be keeping a close eye on little disturbances/surface lows as this will be the key driver for snowfall events over the next week or so - I would not be at all surprised to see some decent falls pretty much anywhere. The one I'm particularly interested in at present is over next weekend Saturday into Sunday as a LP sweeps SE - albeit likely very localised (as is always the case with snowfall) this could really deliver for some in Southern counties and will likely develop/change over the coming days.
Some lucky ones could be in for a very snowy scene by Sunday/Monday - no doubts! Fine detail to be resolved....
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Well a bit early I know but we've just had a sleety (yes sleety) shower near Cambs, with hail and a definite inclusion of icy slush within the rain. Caught me a bit by surprise!
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Interesting that we had a similar (ish) set up with a cold low moving through last Nov and it gave me in Ely (and others in Cambs) a surprise snowfall (caught everyone even the forecasters by surprise) - very similar to what they are saying at present about snow only on hills etc etc, but we are at sea level
I think the vigorous nature of the low ie the winds may be a negative impact on snowfall perhaps but I still wouldn't be surprised if any in this region did catch a surprise snowfall tonight and into tomorrow, you cannot rule it out, and the forecasters aren't completely ruling it out either.
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Huge line of storms just to my West of Ely - some really interesting looking cells on radar which I am sure are producing some very good storms on the ground!
They seem to be slipping south just before they reach me though for the time being...
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My first venture into the storms forum this year.... the prospects of some storms have brought me back out!!
Although I can't say it's looking like a severe storm event with the current ingredients in play, it certainly looks like tonight could throw some lightning my way in Ely, Cambridgeshire. All eyes will be on this evenings developments high up - as others have said, 7-8pm onwards it should hopefully 'blow up' over the channel and head over the SE. Could even be later than 8pm until this happens.
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Envious of everyone’s snow during this spell - Great to see the pics and videos! Can’t believe us in Cambs missed out in the last spell and have also missed out on this spell!! Needed a good frontal system but just didn’t materialise this time to give a more widespread event, never mind! Enjoying the cold none the less. Still time for some frontal snow yet mind... I’ll give it till mid March!! But I am looking forward to spring now
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1 minute ago, Delka said:
This really is something else here, there’s over a foot of snow on the car! will get out and get a close photo for proof in a bit otherwise i won’t believe myself in years to come
You've been lucky!! A few miles South and you'll probably only see a sprinkling.... !! Look forward to the photos.
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44 minutes ago, Nick F said:
The models continue to indicate a weak streamer slowly slipping south over Kent and E Sussex today. EC below:
Fax still has the convergence twig at midnight:
Looks like it's game for snow over for much of the SE though for this cold spell, though E Anglia likely to further snow showers across Norfolk, north Cambs and also along Suffolk/Essex coasts, unless models aren't picking up snow showers developing/moving SE inland away from coasts.
Talking point now for most will be the low minima overnight for next few days before it turns less cold early next week.
Glad to get a covering at home of around 4cm since Sunday from light but almost continuous snow since Sunday morning, that stopped around lunch time yesterday, not a lot, but nice not to be too disruptive so as I can get to work. Here at work near Heathrow this morning, there's only trace amounts of snow, so grateful I live in NE Surrey where we got a lot more.
I've witnessed in the past once the wind turns more Northerly the wash occasionally assisting showers off Norfolk into the likes of Cambridgeshire... I suppose there's a slim chance that could occur at least for the next 12 hours or so until the showers get killed off, as we are seeing at the moment a few a being driven Southwards, I may just get clipped.
As with yesterday I suspect any showers will struggle to settle through the day where there isn't already any snow cover though. Been as expected here in Cambs through this spell - the odd dusting, but nothing really in comparison to others. We never have historically done well form an easterly unless a North Sea low brews up comes ashore...
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Loving the look of those beefy showers coming into Norfolk - but the radar is telling a few fibs tonight as I’m supposedly under that light PPN but it’s currently dry and no snow in the air at all... so all may not be what it seems! It does seem to be breezier tonight than it was last night though so that may assist the efforts but I’ll still be surprised to see much tonight... strange things do happen though !
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8 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:
Shame as yesterday’s fax had the winds converging right through E Anglia but it seems to have disappeared from the latest one.
Winds look like they’re going back to NE again so maybe see a few flakes tonight.
Yes I noticed that - for a few runs we were looking in a prime location for the convergence line but it failed to materialise last night... we've been unlucky for sure but easterly's rarely provide the goods for us in mid-EA, unless it's a N/NE'ly in which case the wash can provide us with a good pasting. I knew once Sunday's fun and games didn't push into our region we would be clutching at straws....
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9 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:
Oh my god an actual heavyish snow shower woo hoo 1st one of the day.
And the last for us maybe!!! Make the most of it haha.
Talking of which - anyone got an idea on where's tonight's showers are likely to be?! Any decent charts? I've a general feeling that the shower activity is on the decline now but would like to be proven wrong !!
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Moderate snow/graupel shower just North of Cambridge, gave a light dusting but quickly melting away
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Here in snow starved Cambridgeshire all I can say is bring on spring... might get my wish next week if the wind turns southerly?!
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Another light covering in Ely (maybe 0.5cm) this morning curtesy of the fleeting snow showers last night, didn't really get going which is a shame but not a surprise in these parts!
Last throw of the dice potentially this afternoon if that line of showers sets up through mid-EA as the charts depict, otherwise.... until the next time! Good to see quite a few places in the East and SE getting some decent snow, for us in inland EA it's been a bit of a disappointment but then again easterly's don't often delivery for us!
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The wind has eased and I’m not convinced the streamers are going to get going for EA/SE, yes the uppers are perfect but there’s not enough oomph in the wind to get the showers going down here - different story up north though! The charts aren’t exactly predicting a deluge of snow for us unless I’m wrong? If anything the GFS has everything easing away by early Morning - maybe it’s wrong? I hope so!
Anyway We’ve had flurries here all Through the evening and have another sprinkling outside which is nice.
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I hope that convergance line sinks South enough to get me up in East Cambs - I'm not sure though!!! It's going to be touch and go tonight.... could easily get 5-10cm from that line though! Going to make interesting watching later....
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38 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:
If your snow depths are not as you had hoped for. Next week could well deliver. What temp is that aloft in E Anglia ??
Indeedy - that's a good looking chart for temperatures, but it's a shame that temperatures (regardless of their extremety) will not always translate to snow! It's looking like it's going to be quite a strict South Easterly flow heading into next week, which would mean cold and dry for our region (predominately). Important to stress that. If we were to get more of an easterly or NE flow then that could change things for some (not all) though where they pick up the streamers.
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We need this light snow to turn into some proper snow showers.... like they have north of the Wash. May happen later on and form into lines? I'm under the streamer near Cambridge now but its just really light snow that isn't really settling or turning anything new white.
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A decent 2cm covering in Ely this morning, very fine - powdery snow which is not a common occurrence in these parts!
Looking good for more top-ups through today. Currently snowing lightly with some moderate bursts at times. Overall - happy! It took it's time but the set-up has delivered. This snow should be sticking around for quite some time looking at the latest charts...
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As is the nature of these set ups it’s never a reliable form of snow for most in EA unless a polar low or organised front forms.. hit and miss. Still - the next few days may come up with the goods for some here.
let’s face it though - I was in The supermarket today and you could Hear people saying ‘where’s all this snow then’ to one and other - to the average joe the likes of Beeb and meto have really set themselves up for a fall so far, the meto written forecasts in particular have been so vague, broad brush garbage depicting blizzards for the entire region on an epic scale, which it really hasn’t been. They are their own worse enemy !!
anyway - we have a light sprinkling here now which is something at least! I’m grateful for that, could easily have had zilch from this kind of setup.-
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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:
Not sure if it’s to do with snow being carried a long way in the wind but snow here (Stevenage) for most of the evening but according to the radar we are north of the precip. Does anyone know at what height the radar picks up precipitation is it when it leaves the clouds
The same happened here - clear skies and light snow, saw an interesting quote on this in an earlier post saying that the precip gets carried 5-10 miles upstream of the showers due to the wind. Overall - everything seems to be lacking a bit of punch at the moment
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5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Running the radar from 7-8ish, snow really seems to be fading pretty much just before it hits my patch. I’d imagine Mildenhall way must be having some decent snow?
Likewise - it literally just gets to my doorstep and dies
just looking at the nature of the set up I’m not that convinced anywhere will get substantial amounts tonight in EA - might be wrong, it all looks too light... maybe a 1-2cm here and there. Really envy those punchy snow showers over eastern Scotland! If only!
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Got a light sprinkling now but it feels like that main streamer is taking one step forward two steps back from Ely come on
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Looks like I’m in for a pokey streamer which is edging this way and I’m pleased to say looks quite meaty on the radar now... seems to be gaining strength as it goes. Fingers crossed would be nice to at least get a covering tonight. I’ve heard that it’s given a covering down the road in Newmarket
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Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I'm quite happy with the Greenland Block and Northern High set up!!!
almost guarunteed fun... whereas an SSW will probably chuck all the intense cold down into Turkey and leave us with a blow torch knowing our luck!! Haha... not often I'm wishing an SSW would hold off! Plenty of deep cold to tap into this year mind