Matty88
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Posts posted by Matty88
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8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
As said above.. turn your mobile device around to landscape mode and it'll show people's locations.
Just tried that - and no it doesn’t on mine? Anyway, it’s a small ask, people just need to stop being lazy!
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Likewise it’s so annoying when people post saying ‘snowing here now’ etc etc they think we are all mind readers!! Name of town/village/city and county on all reports is a must
I’ve given up for today - Ely got nothing, just 4 miles west they had 4 inches! Unbelievable!!! Haha that’s the way it goes. To rub salt in the wounds it’s actually spitting with rain now...
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Ok we have a bit of rain and sleet on the air now and supposedly we are in the best ppn zone on the radar ... wouldn’t get your hopes up those further south lol
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Very disappointing in Ely - the radar has been telling fibs all day - the odd flurry but nothing really, even now if you looked at the radar we should be getting a pounding but alas not a single flake is falling! Damn I never thought it would be this frustrating lol
I don’t know what’s happened to the radar but it’s definitely gone a bit wonky... a strange one
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Surprises me the number of people who didn't believe in the Northern extent of the front today - the GFS got closest didn't it (again?). The Meto and Beeb were way out (again) - so my question is why do we all take what they forecast as gospel?! Anyway
As for me... it seems 5 miles West and they have 4cm of snow, and in Ely we've managed just small flurries - we are literally slap bang on the edge arghhh! Painful. As I speak it is dark and threatening though...we shall see
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So close I can practically taste the snow - come on front pivot over us in Cambridgeshire!!!
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The front is still pushing north and east from what I can tell - it may have slowed slightly but it hasn’t stalled yet...
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3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
Looks to me the stall and pivot is occuring now right over SW London and areas along the M4 West of London. Looks that way to me on radar anyway.
Sweet spot still looks to be the M40 somewhere along the Chilterns
Hmm I don’t know... I think it’s still got some legs left in it
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Well if you believe the GFS the front is going to stall either right on me (Ely - Cambs) or JUST to my South - it’s going to be on a knife edge!!! Damn...
My feeling is it’ll get to me but there’s also every chance it won’t! Hmm....any thoughts??
I will see that the GFS precip has positioned it accurately as it stands...the meto and beeb precip forecasts have been incorrectly on the northerly extent (as usual!)
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Decent snow shower in Ely - heaviest for a couple of years, has brought 1-2cm patchy covering. Nice to see! Been a long wait!
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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Exactly... will probably end up 1-2cm above 150m
yeah including that scenario!
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Just now, Floatylight said:
Wonder where this will end up today?
Well The charts seem to think it’s headed for my neck of the woods in Cambridgeshire - we shall see! Could be some surprises from This today in my opinion ... esp for snow starved Cambridgeshire!
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Just now, Frostbite1980 said:
1-3 cm of snow over 100m.....cosmic
Don’t get too drawn in these warnings will be chopped and changed before tomorrow....nothing is set in stone
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Interesting that GFS has the precipitation further north tomorrow - potentially impacting EA more, it’s looking interesting! I’ve generally relied on GFS over the years but all models seem to be very uncertain. It’s also looking good for EA this afternoon for some beefy snow showers which could well give some accumulations.
I don’t think the meto and beeb warnings should be taken too literally at this stage but for sure some places will see snow, some in the warning area and dare I say potentially some not currently in the warning area!
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My monies on GFS for the weekends snow potential for the region - zero. On the plus side at least its looking dry and bright... which is a positive after recent drab!
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50 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Massive bust for the likes of EURO4/HARMONIE, worth remembering that for future events, both of those models massively massively over-did the snowfall potential.
UKV/AROME generally spot on when it came to accumulating snowfall based on reports here/Twitter. Higher ground generally across the SE with most seeing a period of transient (non accumulating) snowfall.
I woke up about 6 and it was raining here, areas further east seemed to fair better, the front didn't slow down quite as much as models had expected.
its definitely not the first time those models have over played the snow - I’ve seen them do it many times before! Old news. I think the GFS needs credit where credit is due as it has generally got today spot on, and has done quite often when it comes to precip/snow over the seasons. I generally believe the GFS more than others for this reason. All the charts have their moments but certainly NEVER take the Euro4/Harmonie snow forecast literally!
Today was always going to be on a knife edge and unlikely to be decent with the warm front rattling through like that and mild uppers on its tail, it didn’t take me by surprise at all. I knew the likes of the meto/beeb were over-egging the potential big time.
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Something amiss atmospherically for snow here in Cambs - it’s moderate sleet, obviously melting then refreezing as it falls, pretty depressive !! Maybe something will change but it doesn’t look good currently esp with the temps on the up.
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Raining ice pellets now in Ely... still not sure what to make of this mornings prospects. Looking unlikely we’ll get the 5-10cm but can’t rule it out yet as the main band is just starting to set in.
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I can confirm Heavy ‘fine’ snow has arrived in Ely and settling on all surfaces as I speak... a good start
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Some ‘concerning’ reports of nothing but heavy sleet then rain in the midlands... nowt yet in Ely (in the amber zone) but it’s dry as a bone outside and the winds picking up!
We shall see...
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26 minutes ago, Jamie M said:
There we are then.
Wow the snow gods have spoken, so that means guaranteed Snow righyt!? Nahhh!!! Unfortunetely there'll be plenty of places in this zone that don't get lucky
I personally feel the milder air flanking this front could make for a swift change-over from snow to rain but we'll see... I suppose a covering of snow that lasts for half a day is better than no snow right?!
On the wider conversation - I'm actually quite glad we've lost the nagging marginal flow coming off the North Sea now - it failed to deliver for most South of Lincolnshire. I actually believe a marginal cold North Westerly or even Westerly may be better for us guys, anything that doesn't come straight off the North Sea!! Obviously this changes if the uppers are cold enough, but if they aren't then it's just heartache all round.
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Front seems to be decaying quite rapidly now.... and not a single flake in Cambridge yet. Losing hope for today - too marginal perhaps !
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The main band of precip seems to be further east than some forecasters were predicting... which may be a good thing.
Some tentative signs of sleetiness here in Cambs but nothing more than that at present. I suspect our best bet will be through mid afternoon onwards with a change-over as the front decays, hopefully producing some snow for a good few hours into the evening. Looks like Mid-EA is the prime location for that based on the current position of the front.
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Looking out my window.... drab cold drizzle, then looking a the latest 06z chart - depressing!! I don't like the way the charts are going, 1 good cold run vs 2 mild runs.
On the flip side we may even get a 15c by the end of Jan if it goes the mild way - the spring daffodils will be sprouting up !!
And if I see any more 'boooom' phrases on the model forum with a picture of a rubbish looking chart I'm gonna go mad!
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Matty88
It’s a small ask and to be honest ridiculous that some people are taking offence at posting properly! Shear laziness and so damn annoying, just because I don’t have an android (and I don’t want one!!) . Anyway, let’s stop bickering and get back on topic