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Tonyinhampshire

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    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Tristrame said:

    Tbh,they haven't a clue

    Forecasts from met services  beyond 7 days are a waste of time due to being right as often as the proverbial stopped clock

    Learned this year that less is known about strat influence than ever and less still about other teleconnections 

    Certainly not enough for forecasts

    Even Roger Smith's seasonal forecast depended on winds from the north or east and MUCH colder than this last week

    Its not going to happen as planned but of course could still in the wasteland dregs of winter

    So yeah a lot of dishwashing I think

    Back to science and 7 days out only we go (or anyone with sense goes and I don't mean disrespect there because I'll still look too)

     

    I was in Belfast last January. Snow closed airport. I thought this might be tail end of winter. Two Months later, the beast hit the South coast

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Mr Bartlettazores said:

    Haha indeed! I’m not too bothered as live in Winchester and there has been a few cms of snow there yesterday but it does seem that a snowshield has set up everywhere else in South Hampshire! The snow literally starts and finishes as you enter / leave Winchester off the M3! :yahoo:

    I call it the pizza slice zone. Also happens with thunderstorms. I think it might be the Solent microclimate, which to be fair did deliver 1 inch of snow on coast which was not forecast, about A Month ago.

    Model output discussion - the beast arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    image.thumb.png.28668441cbd72769b856f7f9bec62a7d.png  T54

    image.thumb.png.60e7c983ebc5fdc3556320a21f1389da.png t60

    image.thumb.png.6f53d0a7513ae720f226e0f17800d2f0.png T66

    I think these are the right times.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature-850hpa/20180302-1500z.html

    Anyway throughout Thursday and Friday temperatures are at or just below freezing and dew points are below zero here in Southampton so it would still all be snow, even if the T850s do climb a little above zero for a time :)

    Just saw BBC forecast for Thursday. The band of rain/snow seems to be shunting westwards from France.Much of Sussex seems to escape now. I wonder if this westward trend will continue ?

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tonyinhampshire

    2 hours ago, Wizzobell said:

    I keep hearing about the South’s lack of snow but I’m based in S Yorks and we haven’t had snow since 2010. 

    The reality is that we are all snow starved and therefore ramp at the possibility of snow even so called experts on the model thread.

    The models really struggle with our island and can simply pick a broad trend with v little detailed accuracy even at v short time periods hence we have an amber warning but we don’t even have a covering of snow. 

    After another failed bout of snowmaggedon predictions I think I’m going to stick to looking out of the window 

    Similar setup to 1978. I was a child then. I recall rain on coast. Snow one mile inland. We have had snow this year on the coast/beach. 1 inch and was unexpected. I think it is the Solent microclimate. On the occasions we have had snow, most was iunexpected and when it was forecast, it often rained.

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, MarkM said:

    Somehow I'm still not believing this is actually going to happen after being let down so many times , but even so I've prepped the Range Rover today , rescue kit in the boot , charged up batteries etc etc. My only regret is that those fools that write in the express and mail will claim they forecasted it all along. 

    Well you might be be right. Our local TV forecast mentions average temps in in the south next Week around 7c, Spring like I would say.

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