[Severe winter cold / snow hits Russia,Europe, North America]

Looking at the forecasts for the next two Weeks in USA, seems that many areas are 20 below and getting colder. North East Europe and Russia seem not far behind.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

5 hours ago, Catacol said:

There is a fairly substantial contradiction in this reasoning. It's amazing how, within 24 hours of the arrival of milder air, people seem convinced now that mild is here to stay long term. We are 5 days into winter and now we are writing off 33% of it?

Bearing in mind operational output has swung away from cold in the last 10 days - what is to stop it swinging back? Certainly not background drivers. They continue, as ever, to reinforce the view that this winter is totally different to last. The chance for cold and snow is no less than it was 2 weeks ago. All that has happened in the meantime is a relaxing of the blocking pattern as the last Pacific wave died out and we await the beginning of the next. Forecasts today show the MJO picking up speed once again. Vortex conditions are not perfect, but they are certainly not bad as we wait to see whether further wave breaking might create increasingly favourable tropospheric impacts. 

Nothing at all has changed. Anyone who had hoped for rampant HLB at a time of falling AAM was on rocky ground. I expect the EC tonight to maintain the hblocking signal as amplification starts to return. Whether we can get it in exactly the right spot for us to cash in on snow in late December remains to be seen.

We have had so much intrigue already and it's only Dec 5!! Great stuff. Keep some perspective while we wait for the mild shot to depart.

Yes but when mild temps are predicted we get mild temps, guaranteed. However when hot or cold temps are forecast we often get mild temps

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The beeb are saying mid teens for NE Scotland on Wednesday

GFS shows 13c

Yes please. Thats hotter than some temps we had back in June. 

 

[Severe winter cold / snow hits Russia,Europe, North America]

Spare a thought for many parts of Northern hemisphere. See links

Ukraine and Russia hit by extreme cold and heavy snow -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/9753603/Ukraine-and-Russia-hit-by-extreme-cold-snap-and-heavy-snow.html

Hawaii snowfall:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38199730

Lots of other news recently about snow in China and Japan.

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16]

On 30/11/2016 at 16:33, Ali1977 said:

This looks good, WAA holding near Newfoundland, Low to the West of it is tilting - expect a block to form in FI especially if the WAA can link with heights at the Pole.

 

AND THERE SHE COMES!!!  

Another upgrade in GEFS in FI will be good, I think it'll happen too.

I would like to ask a general question about weather trends and models, etc. Is there any truth in any correlation between weather patterns and Astrology and even numerology, for example, do the planets affect weather patterns or has a link been made between cold winters / hot summers and numbers, such as cycles of years, say a cold winter every so many Years. I would be keen to know. thanks