JBMWeatherForever

I don't think the battle is over yet. In fact it hasn't even begun. The models always over do the strength of the Atlantic. Will not be surprised to see near term changes (Wed/Thurs) turn into long term big changes !

In view of where we were only a few days ago and how things are trending, I really do think that an easterly is now quite possible. Once we start to see trough disruption being shown (and that's what is now being shown) then there is no telling where we might end up. Things can then just turn on a sixpence, and an easterly is upon us. We have been out of luck so far this winter, but things may be about to change.

Looks like the models may be about to shift back to a colder outlook again. ECM looks very interesting. In the same way that we lost our easterly for this week, and then had zonality looking quite certain, now this seems to be getting pushed back further and further and is not so certain any more, a very interesting trend. Might we now eventually get our easterly later next Week, it does now look possible. Wednesdays model runs will be very interesting, and I would not be surprised to see increasing support for an easterly for later next Week!

So if GFS has fallen then the chances of a bitter easterly must have risen - Lots of excitement ahead me thinks!

Model Upgrades, Cold air arriving earlier, Ridging ne ! What next, a prolonged period of cold weather ? Certainly like the way things are starting to trend.

The models are just continuing to play around with the cold synoptical outcome that we will eventually have, that's what the models do. Fully expect some epic runs for cold in the next few days - from the east. Don't go betting on any southwesterlies this January !

Latest GFS run brings the cold air in very slightly earlier. If the trend continues will be able to set my New Year fireworks off in the cold air. Looking promising for some cold weather in January, with each northerly outbreak looking stronger than the next. I like that pattern as I think we are eventually going to go into deep cold on or before mid month. This type of pattern usually produces in the end, and maybe earlier than is currently being suggested.

The synoptics are really starting to get into the Christmas Spirit now, maybe we will have a New Years resolution from the weather models to provide us with lots of snow for a change, in early January ! Ho Ho Ho! Merry Christmas and a Snowy New Year to one and all.

It's easy to be negative after having been let down by such promising background signals recently and the various synoptics we have then endured bringing everything but proper cold. However, things do look very promising now for a colder set up into the New Year, at least that's what I'm seeing ! It may not be set in stone, but I like the way the pattern is modeled to occur and then reload. It looks quite feasible , and also if we don't get the full northerly the first time, I think that we would do the next time.

I'm not rooting for the GFS to be right, as although I also like white Christmas's, I like my house even more. I know that the GFS is sometimes good at spoting trends which the other models then catch on to, but I do think that it does often tends to over deepen Atlantic lows on its output.

Sure hope the GFS is wrong as here in the Isle of Man we would have gusts over 100mph on Christmas day. Does look like it's on its own though, and it does sometimes seem to overcook such situations. Does seem that there is a trend recently to bring these lows further south, and so potentially some of the air dragged in behind them that may well be cold enough for some snow showers in northern and northwester parts at Christmas. This does look quite possible now.

That polar front won't have to trend much further south than is already being shown to make the Christmas Period much more interesting. Theirs still plenty of time for that to happen yet, and If that trend does continued would it not also be a quicker way to an easterly with lows taking an increasingly southerly track up against an increasingly strong block to the east ?

Doesn't look like the cold zonality will be around for very long, thou maybe it will give some of us some transient snow around Christmas (and it should feel cold enough). But looks like after that with such a strong block that it is only a matter of time before cold air reaches us from the east. I'm always optimistic, but I really think we have lots to be optimistic about in the further outlook. We have a good chance of getting the right synoptics in the heart of winter.

Ian McCaskill - Legend, very sad to hear that he has passed way. He was so good to listen to and such a personality with it. I remember him giving the weekly forecast during the epic spell of early January 87 with his tales of the timber wolf etc. Remember that spell came at quite short notice, just as many Easterly's do. On this occasion though I do think it being flaged up for us.

Feel increasingly confident that we are in for a cold last week of December with an increasing cold Easterly. (Cold, calm and frosty Christmas perfect for walks in the country)

If it wasn't for times like these, then it wouldn't be so enjoyable when consistently cold synoptics do turn up. I am still convinced that this will start to happen this week, pointing us to a much colder period from or soon after Christmas. To my eyes everything points to increasingly strong anticyclonic conditions later this month, and this is what the ECM and GFS are currently showing as a confirmation of this trend. However I believe that the trend will be our friend and that we will eventually end up with something from the East and not the default South West.