JBMWeatherForever

A very good further outlook from Exeter. Does anyone who watched the weather for the week ahead on the Beeb, just now, though, think like me, that they were underestimating the cold for later this week or do you think they are on the money. Just seemes that 6 or 7c for much of central and South East England on Wednesday and Thursday seems a bit generous given the synoptic and likely airmass at that time ?

One great set of charts followed by another at the moment. I know some have been saying that the depth of cold to our north east in not the same as 2010, but by the end of next week that may well have changed, and we could be on the cusp of something special ! Cold does have to be given time to build. Exciting times I think !

Those 18z rainfall charts look very similar to about two years ago when we had some very bad flooding locally, with a bridge coming down in a village 5 miles to our north. I do hope that the front doesn't stall for any longer than is currently suggested. And then we open the doors to a cold spell - with cross model agreement (Makes a change), and the prospect of it getting even colder during next week. It's funny also how in many media forecasts when we move into such a spell that they seem to underestimate the cold at first and then gradually adjust accordingly. Its looking like a decent period of cold weather with plenty of scope for it to become very cold, some lovely looking runs now from the big three. Will not be surprised to see some classic E/NE'lys showing up soon with such a disorganised PV, and to think that just a few days ago some were talking of Euroslugs and Iberian Heights that don't go away (these days) ??? Some were even writing off winter when its still only Autumn ! We have so much to look forward to in the coming months !!!

Maybe this time then ! Looking good for cold from Friday. What I like even more is the general set up after the initial cold plunge. Lots to be happy about and it's still only Autumn. So far in November the model watching has been more entertaining than the actual weather we have received. (If you like cold) Maybe that will change soon !

Just don't see SW's out of this. What I see is the cold air trending ever further south. Surely once the cold air becomes well established to our east and north east, this will also help to stop any progression of the milder air and then actually reverse it. Then the Northern Uk gets battleground snow and eventually the cold wins out. Is that not why this is not yet resolved because of the problems the models have with such situations ?

Cold spells never come easily to the British Isles and the models usually have problems in forecasting what is not the norm. That is why I feel confident that we are now on the cusp of a prolonged spell of cold from the north east. Of particular note this evening is the back tracking of the UKMO fax charts for sunday. The trend is once again are friend.

Things still looking good overall for a prolonged period of cold from the northeast. I really think that all of the models will all be showing this very soon, with some classic north easterly scenarios. Usually once the block starts to become established the cold comes in much sooner than initially expected too. Role on next week.

Like the increasingly southerly jet, with November continuing to look like a cold one on the whole. The Atlantic looks increasingly sluggish as well - An Easterly for late November perhaps?

Computer Default!

Yes November looking good. Shots of cold from the north, the continent getting a lot colder, and then that increasingly more southerly jet. Lots to be happy about!

Below normal temperatures look very likely now for the start of November. I think some proper cold shots to come by the second week. Quick get your de-icer before the stocks run out !!!

5.3c Mostly cold month

I said on Saturday that things seemed increasingly good for early November as the signals were just to strong to ignore, and I see the models continuing to play with what looks to me like a decent spell of early cold weather. Many on here seem to still be dismissing it, and yet the models keep showing it, time and time again. I think November is going to be quite a shock to the system, especially after such warm temperatures this week.

I just like the rinse and repeat pattern which just seems to be being set up by the models on the whole, where we may not get decent cold first time but down the line we do. This is the models output discussion thread after all. And yes of course everything is always more certain within 96 hours, I just think the charts are increasingly promising to my eyes.

Starting to look like winter might be starting early this year. There is certainly increasing evidence of a cold pattern taking hold as we move into November. Models look increasingly promising. The trend is are friend.

Exceptionally windy now here on Isle of Man trees coming down all over the island. Highest gusts likely to be between 6pm and 8pm for us.

NHC still forecast Ophelia to start to weaken from about 24 hours time when a cold front reaches its circulation. They forecast it to become extratropical but still with hurricane force winds in about 48 hours time. This is of course not certain.

I find it funny that in our Temperate Maritime Climate, after a few winters without any decent snow, people start saying that a decent snowfall is now becoming a rear event! What we had in March 2013 was a once in a lifetime event granted. However we also had very exceptional snow events in both 2009 and in 2010. In December 2010 it was so cold in mid December that the snow did not melt for many days. Where I live we had no such snow events for more than a decade before 2009, so it could be argued that snow events are becoming more common, and not less. The 80's had some good cold spells, but the 70's were very poor indeed (except Fed 78), I guess thou that's just the weather being the weather when you live in a Temperate Maritime Climate. One thing for sure, in my opinion, is that snow events are not becoming less common, certainly not in my lifetime, they are just continue to be as varied as they have ever been! Currently it looks like we are going to get some colder shots as we head into march, but there is still plenty of time for something more severe to develope, and I would not be very surprised if it does!

Still think we have plenty of time for crunchy snow (in march) In March 2013 the mild island which I live on had several feet of it, and that was in the last week ! And yes it was crunchy!

This is a disappointing easterly no matter which way you look at it. Considering how cold the continent has been recently, we have been yet again unlucky in the way things have panned out. However given the way the models are currently behaving, and the fact that the Atlantic seems so week at the moment, I still think that before winter is done we will see a notable cold spell. Hints at a notable and potent northerly seem to be continually being shown. Considering where I live (on a mild island) where on March 28 2013, we had one of the worst Blizzards in living memory, I don't buy into the idea that winter is over meteorologically speaking on the 1st March. If you do, then you may find that you get a big shock!

Taking into consideration the bias of models in the circumstances with which we will find ourselves very soon, I think that we are going to have to continue to look to the past to fully envisage what is coming our way in the next few weeks. I think that the models are currently only just hinting at what we could be about to get ! Granted this winter has so far been a big disappointment ( especially from what could already have transpired), but from what I can see I don't think that is going to continue for much longer ! Bring on a proper and long lasting Beast from the East !!!

Yes, hopefully we will see some upgrades in the models as we progress towards Wednesday/Thursday. Always remember such blocks being underestimated, especially by the GFS which has always had an Atlantic bias in such circumstances. We may hopefully see some classic scenario's being modelled shortly.

All of the models seem to be heading in the direction of an easterly at the moment. Lets hope the signals continue to strengthen and we finally get that Easterly that most of us have been wishing and hoping for. It's projected start would be just about on time for the Buchan Cold spell too !

Lots of excitement on here tonight and with good reason. Some saying that the end result might be a half way house between what the ECM and GFS show - But the ECM is still continuing to trend further towards an exciting outlook and the GFS now starting to following it lead. If as has been said, things are looking like a repeat of March 2013, then that pattern being repeated so much earlier could mean things get serious. We are currently less than a week after the date when the winter of 1947 first took hold.

The models have always had problems in determining situations like this, especially the GFS. I seem to remember that the ECM is usually better at dealing with blocks. As I said a view days ago, I think that as the models gradually get a handle on the situation, near term synoptic changes are going to lead to big changes further out. I've seen this happen in the past and don't see why it can't happen again. I'm just looking at the trend and thinking where is this trending too ? Don't think its to much of a leap of faith.