Luke Attwood
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Everything posted by Luke Attwood
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So your in hope that we will see retrogression next week, like the gfs is showing let's hope its right.as the ECM goes with southeasterly winds vearing southerly! Horrible -
Hi Steve I was referring to the uppers that are being showed for next week.+2/4 uppers on display would it still be cold?
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Not being bleak about things,of course it could turn out to be a very cold spell but I always remain cautious here in the UK because its so difficult to maintain cold conditions for a long period of time.
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No he has a got a point,this cold will lead to nothing special.its looking like a cold snap rather then spell,people saying next week will be cold with higher 850's but it wont be that cold,probably 5/6c nothing special is it! It seems people are to bias on here when there's signs of cold coming,always trying to ramp it up.its almost like we lie to ourselfs in suggesting that it will be a lot colder then what is showing.
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For several years ,you really think it will be that good!?
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Wow even bigger cold pool heading our way,on the 18z
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So when are u the ECM ensembles released
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Well if u look at the latest ecm,you will understand the negativity. The problem is with the cold coming up its always very marginal setup's. And sad to say it I think our luck will be out again! Its frustrating I hope I'm wrong of course
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Oh thanks.so u expect it to stay cold throughout the weekend ?
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Very cold even with not cold uppers?
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I kind of agree with him, ii have bad feeling about this the uppers are not cold over next weekend. Would it still be cold at the surface?
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Yes how long u think it will last then,your opinion?
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Well I do hope you are right,but should remain cautious its only one run 06z which was great. Having said that I do believe we will see cold weather starting Wednesday and probably lasting until Monday or Tuesday the following week at least! During this period we likely to see temps range from about 3-6c and and as low as -3 overnight. That's just my opinion looking at the models. I really hope we can repeat it on the 12z
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Ok thanks,how long would u say this cold spell will last? If starting from Wednesday,it looks cold throughout next weekend to me.and it could get even colder during the following week,that's my view on it
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So the op was a cold outlier?
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So ur basically saying the op should be showing slightly colder temps?
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U say the angle is wrong of the high,but it would still be cold right?
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So what your saying is that the ECM should be showing colder uppers? As u said it being a mild outlier.?
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Luke Attwood replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it appears the coldest most severe winters were during the 80's . -
One of the the problems is the low pressure in the Atlantic.we have the block In place next week,but one of the problems moving the cold air west is due to the lows pushing east and north,this is the wrong track! We really need them to dive south and then east,or just straight north and then west.until the latter happens we won't see a freeze up.just chilly conditions nothing to extreme.do people agree with me here?
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I think you mean a Greenland high.
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I suppose its not such a bad mean,could be better of course. I have a feeling that the coldest weather will remain to our east.Romania turkey being the favoured areas.I hope I am wrong though
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Hmm don't really agree,no strong block to the east and the UK left in southerly to southeasterly wind.not particularly cold!
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OK thanks for that so the outlook is for cold..cold and more cold?
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Would you mind explaining what this means, is it a good sign for cold?
