Brucie

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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

Brucie replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion

Interesting that the GFS ensembles have been consistent in a downward trend in 850s for a few days now, starting from around mid-month. Note that there is better clustering for cold in the most recent ensembles. IMO, a synoptic change is on the way. Maybe the projected change in the Arctic profile (Aleutian high drifting over towards the Atlantic side of the Pole) is going to assist us at last.
Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

Brucie replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Spring Weather Discussion

This is interesting as 2005-06 saw, like this winter, solar activity declining from solar max. It was not until 2008-09 that we started seeing the effects of low solar activity in winter. This leads me to think that we have a much better chance of cold winter periods in the next few years, allowing for the time lag. David, Northallerton
- January 3, 2017
- 1,174 replies
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