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Anon90

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Everything posted by Anon90

  1. Given the strength of the PV a part of my mind always thought that a possibility cold and blocked outlook was too good to be true so not at all surprised by the model's backtracking.
  2. As others have noted the current profile to the north/north west just isn't favourable enough as things currently stand, may well need a full on SSW to salvage anything from this winter.
  3. Based on all the current evidence I strongly suspect that the gig may well be up for this round of cold chasing, ah well there's always next time.
  4. Hopefully I'm proven wrong but can't help but get the sinking feeling that the models are all going to revert to the default pattern sooner rather later which will give the mildies plenty of room to be smug in the MOD thread for possibly weeks on end.
  5. Whenever there's "uncertainty" in the output during the winter season things usually only go one way which results in me avoiding these forums like a plague for weeks on end, hopefully this isn't one of those occasions.
  6. Well you lot needn't worry too much as I'm thinking of takng my family to Laplamd this year which more or less guarantees it's going to be cold and snowy.
  7. I expect the ECM to back it later, looks like the GFS is lagging behind a bit a per usual.
  8. There's now talk of another warming, hopefully it ends up leading to more mid latitude blocking so we get a nice start to Spring.
  9. Really it's now time for model wathcers to either to looking for Spring weather or look for another Hobby, as for the sunspot count well at end of day that's just one variable just like other certain other background signals
  10. There still a chance of something but that would probably come at time when things are more marginal and most people are already over it ala February 2005.
  11. I see that the "potential" may now be shifting to late February, in real terms that probably means a toppler at best which is no better than offerings from recent winters.
  12. The better news from the 12z suite is that retrogression hasn't been completely muted, at least for the time being.
  13. Recent ECM runs, the retrogression may still get there on this run but it looks there's been a definite shift towards it.
  14. Dismiss the ECM at your peril, could tell very early on that this run wasn't going be good in the medium/longer term.
  15. There's definitely Febuary 2012 vibes about recent output, wouldn't surprise if 2nd half of the month did turn out to be above average, at least I got some Snowfall during that winter which was ironically when things were more Zonal.
  16. Can't help but get a sense of deja vu here, I'm pretty sure the ECM was the first to suggest a warm up/the strat not really playing ball back February 2012 and it was proven correct.
  17. The ECM isn't first to go with a swift breakdown, the possibility has been suggested/hinted at on previous runs, as for background well they didn't end counting for much in December 2012.
  18. One thing I've been meaning to ask since unfavourable trend started a day or so is it to with the Strat suddenly not looking as good or more to do with the dice not rolling in our favour post the warming effect?
  19. As I've said before after this winter has gone it'll take something akin to 09/10 or 10/11 to draw people back into the model watching hobbywhich is highly unlikely.
  20. It's not the first run to suggest as such either, there's been hints of it since yesterday's 18z, start of a new trend?, probably is knowing our luck.
  21. Yup, never even uttered a word to my family about it this time yet that doesn't appear to have made any difference
  22. I've thought/said this before but at this point I really am on the brink of calling it day at this point if not already, even if something does develop later in the month it'll be a tame affair which isn't worth getting excited about.
  23. Whenever they do hint at something you're always expecting a downgrade which comes to fruition 9 times out of 10, one of the few times it didn't was in 2010 which was unfortunately before I came across these forums,
  24. Next winter/ following winters the forum activity is going lowered in general due to little or no expectation that anything will come off, the only thing that reverse that particular trend is we end getting something akin to the cold spell's/snow falls of the early 2009 to late 2010 period which I can't see happening.
  25. The silence in MOD thread recently has spoke volumes, looks like I'm not the only who was wondering what charts certain member's were looking at when they said there was still potential.
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