Anon90
-
Posts
68 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Anon90
-
The west based -NAO/milder atlantic weather looks more or less nailed now, it's a pity that the same can rarely be said that about cold weather.
-
There's a debate in the MOD thread about whether or not the 18z solution is feasible, well in my experience you can pretty dismiss any solution that hints at heights to the NW out of hand, even if future runs do go with something like that you just know something will pop up to derail it, the only time that wasn't the case in more recent memory was in the 09/10 and 10/11 winters which probably happened in an alternate universe.
-
If you listen to Matt Hugo yes there's no point in looking at the Model output for the foreseeable, if we're lucky we might get another transitionary event before the winter's out but that's about it.
-
So we should see the OP's continuing to shift southwards then, again that's of no surprise whatever.
-
The models are trying to hint at height rises towards the NW at the minute but we all know how that will probably turn out, it's almost as if the 09/10 and 10/11 winters were just a dream.
-
The models seem to be firming up on the medium term as well the longer term with pattern eventually flattening out, no uncertainty from this point onwards I would wager.
-
To honest it looks like a step towards the West based -NAO scenario which has been mooted, and maybe not even perhaps just a sinking of the high followed by Atlantic domination.
-
If the current trend continues (which is for the high to go further and further south) then next weeks weather won't be much different to what we've seen so far this winter which is of no surprise if you refused to get sucked in (admittedly it's hard not to)
-
Starting to turn whitish outside, wouldn't really call it full on snow but it's better than nothing I suppose.
-
It has snowed here in Runcron if that's of any encouragement to anyone.
-
To be honest that outlook isn't that much of a surprise, it's basically we've seen so far this winter with the odd frost.
-
Indeed, hints of the MJO starting to show it's hand perhaps?
-
My hunch is that it'll more of a middle ground which is basically what the GFS and the earlier ECM is indicating.
