comet
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Posts posted by comet
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The 12z run so different from the 06z in the earlier stages, therefore not much confidence in what it is showing although it will probably show what most poster want to see in the extended and FI range.
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13 hours ago, comet said:
I would of thought that as the models get to grips with the SSW the blocking will be stronger with more latitude. Peak blocking I think could be anywhere from late Feb till second week of March. Just my opinion of course. The gfs ens look great but I think there is much better to come with some really mouth watering charts.
Well it didn't take long did it for the models to show a stronger more northerly block. Already I think we are nearly at the stage now where we can almost guarantee a very cold continental set up for Europe and the UK. The question will then be how cold and how snowy. It certainly looks as though we are in for a very wintry couple of weeks at least, starting in about 8 to 10 days time.
How often can you say that at that time scale with confidence. Not surprised to see NOAA lagging behind they always do when there is big pattern change.
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I would of thought that as the models get to grips with the SSW the blocking will be stronger with more latitude. Peak blocking I think could be anywhere from late Feb till second week of March. Just my opinion of course. The gfs ens look great but I think there is much better to come with some really mouth watering charts.
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The gfs still manages to muck it up with a highly unlikely FI but at day 13 plus I suppose it can be forgiven for losing the plot. Of course a very encouraging run in the earlier stages with quite a potent and snowy easterly. What we want to see now is model inter run consistency with all three converging on the same synoptics.
Just one day out but it looks as if today is the day when the models start to show some consistent downwelling effects from the strat into the troposphere ( don't let us down EC). Ens should be make for some great viewing tonight I would of thought.
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On 05/02/2018 at 22:25, comet said:
although I am still of the opinion that this could have been a more memorable cold spell had it not been for the much stronger warming and forcing we are seeing in the strat I think most would be willing to forsake that if we see real winter wonderland arrive at our shores.
I think over the coming days and runs we will see the heights build more robustly north from roughly our local with the large area of low heights held back further west. Strong heights then developing in the high north east Arctic ( Severnaya Islands) linking with heights from eastern Atlantic ushering in very cold (maybe bitterly cold) north easterly winds etc. This may very well take 20-25 days from now as the models struggle to digest the implifications of such strong strat forcing. I would expect that we will be entrenched in a cold pattern several days before the real cold kicks in with a risk of some snow.
Here's hoping.
I posted this on the 5th of Feb. Despite some peachy runs showing a qtr I still think that the timing ( 25th to 30th ) holds true. How often have we seen the models to quick to jump when a big pattern change is on the way. This again looks to have been one such time. Still plenty of time to get some serious cold and snow over the next two to four weeks.
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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Can I just say quite blatent - the SSW will wipe the la nina base state off the map. It wont matter if theres a pacific ridge when theres downstream ridging blocking the canadian vortex.
Anyway - Have a good night all*
Quite agree the strat will be the main player for several weeks. The high AAM and MJO is all linked to the strat warming and now that is in decline the strat forcing will take over. The ECM should smell the coffee soon.
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29 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:
Remember a few hours ago when everyone was a little downbeat at the poor overnight/morning model runs? Well..
Probably the best run from the GFS yet, very smooth transition, no headaches, cracker of a run
Yes.even one or two of the more experienced and knowledgeable members were getting flustered by a couple of rogue runs.
Winter is most definitely on the way.
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GFS has made a complete dogs dinner of it again lol not that this run bothers me in the slightest. looking forward to the mornings runs. cheers.
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Some posters yesterday suggesting even saying that posters were trying to second guess the outlook. Well no guessing here. Its going to get very cold and very wintry. If the Scandi high is the correct solution for initial trop response ( I think it may be slightly further west) then any regression will I would of thought help to bring colder uppers In quicker.
By Sunday there should be no more hiccups from the models with all (except UKMO of course because of its range ) showing some magical winter synoptics.
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17 minutes ago, chris55 said:
This SSW has the potential to deliver one of the coldest late February cold periods we have seen for many years.
We often talk talk about Stratespheric happenings in the hunt for cold spells, and it seems we may have hit the jackpot in the way the upcoming warming is set to unfold way up there. It will be facinating to see how it ultimately effects our patch.
exciting times
You never know if everything falls in place we could see a period of weather ( cold and snow wise) that could make its way into British folk lore Can not wait until we see the first heavy fall of powder drifting snow that will lay for many days hopefully.
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Good to see the gfs smelling the coffee but I think the actual outcome will be much, much better than this both in terms of snowfall and cold. Looking forward to viewing the ens.
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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:
I know it's right at the end and unlikely but that's impressive -17 850s hitting the uk ?. Let's have some of that .
I think some posters and people just viewing the thread should realise that this run is very much a distinct possibility in a couple of weeks time. Virtually on par with Jan 87.
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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:
The models are now coming online with the transitioning period from the SSW in 4 days -
This period is still developing & subject to revisions however the limited consensus there is seems to be a diving trough & some ridging North from the azores to formulate a block...
Lots more exciting charts to appear over the next few days, For the bulk of the UK we are looking for -10/-11c uppers to really deliver the goods....
S
A warming such as this with the split almost straight to our north should almost certainly deliver the goods. We have seen frigid cold spells from less. I would be rather disappointed if the best we can manage when all is said and done is -11/-12c uppers (although they are plenty decent enough). I am confident we will see some very snowy periods as well.
Great model watching to come I am sure.
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26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Are we still looking ahead to Day 10? By the time Day 10 gets to Day 0, it'll be High Summer, at this rate!
This is a downwelling strat split. The vortex split is still 2 or 3 days away at 10mb. To get a signature like we are seeing in the trop at day 10 which is just over a week from said split at 10mb is a very quick response. Synoptics will then get better and better and better. With such a strong signal I would have thought by Sunday many will be salivating at what is around the corner. Patience Grasshopper, patience.
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The ecm t240 chart going the way I have anticipated but of course it could be completely different tomorrow. You can sense the expectations in this and the strat thread for what may lay ahead. Over the next four weeks we could possibly see some of the best synoptics and winter weather that could match any of the UK's past freeze ups. I know I have not held back with my expectations from the major strat warming and subsequent teleconnects but our locale (uk and Europe) looks to be in prime position to reap the rewards from this, both from a easterly and northerly quadrant.
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I wouldn't be concerned with what the eps are showing like any model and runs they have plenty of off days. Some people do like to fret.
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Apart from very cold perhaps bitterly cold weather on the way ( Feb 91 cold ) there is great potential for plenty of snow to I would have thought if the trop comes anywhere close to replicating what we are seeing in the strat. Any cold and snow prior to the 20th down here in the south is a bonus I think.
I would imagine by the end of the weekend we should have a very good idea exactly what lies in store for Europe and the UK with just the finer details to sort out. This one should be very much worth the wait.
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although I am still of the opinion that this could have been a more memorable cold spell had it not been for the much stronger warming and forcing we are seeing in the strat I think most would be willing to forsake that if we see real winter wonderland arrive at our shores.
I think over the coming days and runs we will see the heights build more robustly north from roughly our local with the large area of low heights held back further west. Strong heights then developing in the high north east Arctic ( Severnaya Islands) linking with heights from eastern Atlantic ushering in very cold (maybe bitterly cold) north easterly winds etc. This may very well take 20-25 days from now as the models struggle to digest the implifications of such strong strat forcing. I would expect that we will be entrenched in a cold pattern several days before the real cold kicks in with a risk of some snow.
Here's hoping.
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16 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:
Exactly @Catacol
I haven't felt this optimistic at what the models aren't showing yet for a very long time. I wish I could speed it up!
Funny I have been predicting something special on the way for the second half of Feb for a few days now. I even put in a cet for Feb of -2c although that may be overdoing it a tad lol.
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1 hour ago, KyleHenry said:
The ECMWF has wave 1 tantalisingly close to full reversal. As it is so close many will have to watch stats up to and after the event.
Wave 2 is going to require the same observations
Seems to have backed off slightly from yesterday, it was showing reversal down to -10
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The 12z today showed a correction west in the model output with the 18z continuing apace with better amplification to the east. I would expect to see this continue as the strat split and forcing draws nearer and nearer. We may only be a couple of days away from viewing some mouth watering charts in the mid to extended range.
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31 minutes ago, lorenzo said:
Whilst the above is the nuke heat flux aggregate - we also have on NASA the momentum flux plots - would be interested to hear @Interitus thoughts on propagation given the excellence shown in previous posts tracking the strat interplay with trop, and thoughts on precursors given this turnaround is against thoughts of the last 7 days. This is not an I told you so, this is an examination of the validity of precursors vs the precision in analysis.
Below is 500hPa and hence the reason we need a few days to see the mechanics in play.
Wild cards are also the 7-8-1 MJO with MJO wanting to push through the 6-7 regime into 7-8-1 - pretty astounding in itself given pacific proclivity( Nina). Also the uptick in the MJO to plus 3-4 sigma is as @Catacol mentioned on the mod a 1/10 yr event. - Genuinely is, and perhaps longer lead than that. I surmise the routes are in peak solar min and modulation of the hadley cells.. EPF forcing juices cells - when there is none... we have other modes imprinting on the atmosphere.
Also within that the inflection on both GFS and ECM NWP and @chionomaniac identifying a second pulse of warming artefact over hudson at time when MJO 8-1 would build blocks...
Tantalising - I had thought we were overdue a signature strat event, the garfinkel study telegraphs P2 MJO as lagging thru the vortex at 30-35 days and it is literally bang on the money right now. Impressive, add in the mitchell prescursors highlighted by Ed, this SSW is proving to be textbook for the science written over the last decade on SSW. Exciting times... Where it lands trop wise... that is the absolute fun of it all ! Genuinely not sure but spillage of that level of cold,gotta love that !
There must be the propensity for some record cold to fall somewhere in the mid latitudes if we see a tanking AO and high latitude blocking that does this warming and forcing justice.
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There has certainly been correction back west from the models this afternoon so far. I'm wondering are we likely to see these small incremental changes as we move through the working week.
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I would agree with the above 20th to 22nd when we see the affects being felt and then welcome to winter wonderland.
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by comet
Lol at the ECM. Never seen such poor inconsistency as this from the model. Some of the old rules are the best, if something works leave it alone. They should have kept that in mind years ago.
Deep cold and heavy snow now showing up regularly in the ens and this is the direction of travel regardless of any shortwaves etc, we should be concentrating on. Strat in total control over next few weeks, no need to get any more technical than that.UKMO run on the money this morning. ECM in the bin.