comet
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Posts posted by comet
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7 hours ago, ArHu3 said:
That was a pretty memorable day, never experienced such intense cold, it literally just took my breath away, on the surface the temperatures even got lower than those 850s
But we never experienced that depth of cold. That chart was just a run from the ECM that never materialised. The deep cold never made it to us unfortunately. Uppers of -10c only made it as far as eastern England.
I remember it all to well.
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Never could get over confident on possible upcoming cold/easterly spell when the gfs was so adamantly against it and this morning myself and many other posters doubts have been realised across the big three models. A blink and you will miss it cold snap although I suppose there will be some surface cold across the country for a couple of days as we go into next week.
When the big three models (that does not include the gem by the way) do not agree then that normally means that there will be a merging or correction across all three models until a middle ground is found. This has happened time and time again and the synoptics being shown now is no exception. At least I suppose we have a few seasonal days coming up with a few wintry showers and some ice and frost around.
Here's to the next roller coaster ride.
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Got to love the gem model this morning with as Steve said southeast England up to northeast England ground to a halt in just over a weeks time with over 24 hours of snow. Anything is possible I suppose.
I must admit to not looking forward to the model runs this morning. But with a much better run from the UKMO model, consistency from the ECM and small incremental steps from the GFS towards the other two models, confidence has grown towards perhaps a more potent and longer lasting cold, very cold spell of weather. There is not much room for error though with the orientation of the high being critical and we do not want to see anymore corrections south of the ridge before it amplifies north. One small niggle is that after the initial cold blast we are looking at post t144 for the cold to return which is moving beyond the reliable time frame, although there will of course be surface cold.
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This was the ecm 12z on the 31/12/17 t144
and this is todays ecm at t96
Notice how the ridge of high pressure is further south even on the ecm and if this continues by the time it ridges north it may be to far south and there will not be any cold uppers to tap into. Not looking forward to the mornings charts.
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Well if ECM is right then it will be a massive coup but if wrong then I feel its reputation may never fully recover in here. I myself fear for the worst. This was originally to be a first bite of the cherry easterly and as we know when you need to take a second or third bite the likelihood of things not going to plan greatly increase. The gfs 18z looks to be going the opposite way to the ecm. We may not even get out of the starting gate with this easterly for in the more reliable time frame we are seeing height being eroded away with to much energy going over the top of the high.
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That was one of the best runs I think we have seen for a good few years. The synoptics are virtually a classic and although uppers could and should be better at this time of year they are not to shabby either. I must say in support of the ecm run that it has been steadfast and in fact seems to be upgrading the cold and longevity of cold spell with every run.
Excellent stuff.
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35 minutes ago, abbie123 said:
Gem has this nailed why can't it ... its been very consistent run to run ..
I want to believe I really do but ....
Cracking t144 chart by the ecm . Originally the thought was all or nothing first bite but Teits did say it may take two bites and its starting to perhaps look like this might be the case. Much better heights over the pole and wow to the t168 chart. I believe, I believe.
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36 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
NOAA's last update re the MJO came down in favour of the ECM forecasts not the GEFS because they have better verification and seeing as the MJO is playing an instrumental role in the outlook then I'd be wary of what the GFS does.
We are due another update later this evening from the Global Tropics Hazards outlook so it will be interesting to see what they have to say then.
I would be wary of putting to much faith in the MJO. Not everyone agrees that the MJO is playing an instrumental role in the outlook at all. There are plenty more factors at play.
Disregarding the gem ( I think I have made my feelings clear on that model) just when I start to be persuaded that this could possible be a noteworthy cold spell along comes another set of runs and my worst fears of poor amplification and the cold disappearing to the south are re-affirmed. This could still turn into a blink and you will miss it affair unfortunately. By now you would have thought the emphasis of topic would be distribution of snow showers and how cold will it get, not will we get an east or north easterly or not. bah humbug.
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Maybe it was the ukmo t144 chart that threw me ( should have known better) but the small incremental changes from the 06z gfs run with the ridge developing further north and then again post t144 with a slowly improving and slightly more amplified heights over the pole it does appear as if the ECM may well be on the ball here. Really looking forward to the afternoon and evening runs, now that my concerns about the high sinking may have been unwarranted. Great stuff.
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34 minutes ago, frosty ground said:Yesterdays GFS 0z Run @144 Todays GFS 0z Run @120
High is better formed and further North.....
Yesterdays GFS @168Todays GFS @144
Again the high is better formed and but around the same postion than yesterdays Run.
not sure how to get yesterdays runs up for UKM and ECM but maybe you can show the high sinking as you claim becasue the GFS does not show this?
There is an archives selection for both ukmo and ecm charts as well. Granted you are correct regarding the gfs.
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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
What a strange post.
we need a correction south ?
Have you seen the 850s for the UK sat/sun? I assume you haven't looked..
Nothing strange about my post at all. I to am impressed by the uppers for the weekend but I am just wary that what we are seeing in the models is a slow erosion of the amplification of the high. I really hope I am wrong here otherwise like I said above the lovely cold upper temps that you have posted will be to the south of the UK by the weekend.
Many a time we have seen a potent easterly heading for the UK only to see the high ending up over the UK with the very cold air down in southern Europe.
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Well after viewing the models this morning I would have to say the trend is not our friend. I mentioned yesterday a fear that what we didn't want to see is a gradual reduction in amplification and unfortunately that is exactly what the models are showing this morning. All three ukmo, ecm and gfs show the high slightly further south than yesterday out to t144. What we want to see is a correction further north again otherwise we may end up by the weekend with a high slap bang over the UK and the cold east/north easterlies winds going south. Post t144 I would be very wary of what the ecm is showing, the model has really been struggling this season so far in relation to our neck of the woods and without support ( yes I am ignoring the gem)then I would be inclined to keep an open mind for now.
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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:
NOAA have now updated their MJO forecast:
The enhanced convective phase of the MJO has crossed Africa and reached the Indian Ocean in the course of the last week.
Dynamical models build the amplitude of the MJO signal across the western Indian Ocean during Week-1, and bring a robust event into the eastern Indian Ocean for Week-2.
Based on dynamical and statistical model guidance, the suppressed portion of the MJO is likely to initially destructively interfere with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent, before shifting further eastward and constructively interfering with suppressed convection near the Date Line tied to La Niña in Week-2.
An active MJO over the Indian Ocean during boreal winter is generally one of the more coherent scenarios for yielding a teleconnection response in the Northern Hemisphere. Typical lagged extratropical circulation responses favor enhancement and extension of the jet across the North Pacific in addition to building troughing (ridging) over western (eastern) North America.That down stream is close to what the NWP is showing perhaps a touch further west with the pattern and you can see that from the composite for MJO phase 2 :
Higher pressure to the east/ne of the UK lower pressure to the west which would be the troughing which the ECM disrupts but the GFS is less interested in doing so.
In terms of tonights ECM ensembles looking at the pressure ones for Northern Italy theres still quite a large spread there, that's something to keep an eye on. The ensembles do show some with higher pressure than the op and that's towards the lower end.
Northern Italy is a key marker for cold into the UK as lower pressure there indicates better support for any blocking to the north.
So for the moment the actual orientation of any high over Scandi towards days 7 to 10 is more uncertain.
That composite would take one heck of a stretch of imagination to say that it is similar to what is being show by the NWP models. You could make a case for numerous different outcomes of weather for the UK from that I afraid.
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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Most of the energy going over the top into the N arm of the jet though- as per week ahead forecast by the BBC tonight
Hoping this changes on future GFS output- it would take us from so-so to potentially staring down the barrel of a prolonged cold spell
That would be one of my main fears that over the next four days or so we see the amplification slowly being eroded away and we end up with a very familiar high over the UK and the cold going further south. I am of course hoping that the trend goes the other way and we see small increments of higher pressure to the north and north east.
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Great afternoon and evening's model watching. Of course can not put any real detail on weekend onwards other than to say it looks to be turning much colder perhaps very cold as we go through the weekend into next week. Ecm even toying with prolonging the cold although depending on high pressure orientation will determine how cold and wintry this spell likely to be.
I wonder what delights the 18z will show us.
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Happy New year to all on Netweather and hopefully a healthy and rewarding one.
Lets hope this afternoons and evenings runs keep the feel good mood going. I was surprised at the ecm's amplification from t168 to t192 on the 12z yesterday but would be nice to see something similar on the runs today. I to think that with the synoptics being shown we have to get it right first time. I do not see there being any second or third chances as once the Atlantic breaks through there will be a more zonal period.
Eyes down for a great afternoon model watching hopefully.
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One other striking thing to note is the northern hemisphere profile which is much more amplified than any other run time will tell whether the ecm is now over doing the amplification. hopefully not.
Happy New year to all on Netweather.
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The t 240 chart could really be setting up for a battle royal.
Not bothered about the detail. That is the first run I have seen that shows what the met office may be seeing and for me a very positive run with tons of scope for improvements as we go through the week. We may not be looking at the coldest uppers from the 12z ecm op run today but we could be looking at a much more potent beast in another two or three days time.
Starting to feel a little more optimistic I must say.
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Bloody eck never see the t192 chart coming that's for sure.
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Cheers Steve Just noticed your reply.
ECM t144 the best I think today out of the big three. Not brilliant but a definite improvement I think.
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ECM at t120 looking very good so far
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1 hour ago, comet said:
Very interesting quote from Fergie . Unfortunately this does not tie in with what the 12z gfs run is showing or the ukmo for that matter.
Still puzzled by the quote by Fergie having looked through all of the ens I can not see any that reveal the synoptics that he speaks of in the time frame he mentions. Perhaps they will reveal themselves as we go through the week.
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12 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
Steve
Any chance of putting a post together explaining this tweet from IF and matching its content to what you are seeing in the models.
Fergie
‘Yup. The net outcome, as UKMO explain well, is how major anticylonic flow by Fri across NE Russia leads to a shift of stratospheric polar vortex position to the SSE, resulting in a marked reconfiguration in the N hemispheric pattern.’
Cheers
Very interesting quote from Fergie . Unfortunately this does not tie in with what the 12z gfs run is showing or the ukmo for that matter.
Edit. by t222 the gfs shows perhaps the synoptics that Fergie was alluding to.
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7 minutes ago, booferking said:
Gem best of the lot 144hr..
Obviously this must be the model the met have based there forecast on lol.
Model output discussion - into 2018
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I did not realise you were Dutch. It was a failed easterly as far as the UK was concerned I remember met forecasts calling for deep cold and significant snowfall in the east of the country at first then becoming more widespread and affecting western regions as well. Unfortunately for the UK in general it did not materialise.