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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Drier than of late but still with rain at times; fairly mild but cooling[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another very unsettled and often wet and windy week gone by with 88mm rain falling in the past 7 days here at Llanwnnen, 130mm at Capel Curig, Snowdonia, 70mm for Little Rissington in the Cotswolds and 40mm at Coventry, and of course there has been widespread flooding issues. The storm surge on Friday caused by strong long fetch SW winds, low atmospheric pressure along with very high tides has badly damaged parts of the West Wales coast including the promenade and sea front at Aberystwyth. A mild week too, even frost at a premium let alone snow, nothing much below zero anywhere. Thunderstorms and hail have been prominent for West Wales with some places getting thunder on 2 or 3 days last week so I hear, so if anyone can tell me details such as dates, times and location I would be grateful to enter this in my weather diary![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Still some rain about in the coming week, but thankfully a somewhat drier picture than we have experienced through December and the New Year period, nor are gales likely to feature once we get past Monday. Still no snow but we will get some frosts eventually as we go through the week. For Sunday and Monday however yet another very deep depression is out over the Atlantic west of Ireland bringing further rain and wind for the start of the new week. Sunday was a bright start but rain and drizzle is affecting most areas this afternoon, some could be heavy for West Wales. The southerly winds strengthens with severe gale force gusts above 50mph for coasts and hills of Wales during this evening. A chilly afternoon for the Midlands, but the warm sector brings mild air to all and 10 or 11c the highs this evening. The frontal rain should clear Wales by midnight although still showers across Wales through tonight, lows of 5 or 6c by dawn with clear intervals. Rain at times perhaps lingering much of the night for the Midlands. A blustery SW wind on Monday brings plenty of showers for West Wales, these heavy with hail and possibly thunder at times, only a few showers getting across to the Midlands however. Sunny intervals too for Monday, highs a rather mild 8 to 10c, winds gusting to gale force (40 to 50mph) across Wales in particular. The wind and showers keep going for Wales on Monday night, you could see a flash of lightning here and there, but a mainly dry night for the Midlands. By Tuesday the deep low has progressed to the NW of Scotland, another fairly mild, windy and showery day in essence, the Midlands tending to miss these, while parts of West Wales get a fair few, still with hail in places. Maxima on Tuesday 7 to 9c with the wind easing during the day. Just the chance that an area of more general rain skirts the South Midlands for a time on Tuesday which could mean a wetter day south of Coventry? Low pressure filling up close to northern Scotland on Wednesday, while fronts lie close to southern England. Still too much wind for frost in this early to middle part of the week. Fewer showers about on Wednesday, more of us managing a generally dry, bright day, highs between 7 and 9c and a much lighter SW breeze. A small wave low may cross the south on Wednesday night and so it could turn into a wet evening and night.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Any rain should have cleared the Midlands by midday Thursday with a ridge of high pressure giving a generally dry afternoon with sunny intervals, just the odd scattered shower in places still, a colder day highs 4 to 6c, but light winds at least. Thursday night looks a fair candidate to be the first frosty one of the comng week, some parts getting just below zero. Perhaps another spell of rain or showers for a time on Friday but there is reasonable prospect that a firm high pressure builds over the Continent by next weekend helping to keep the Atlantic influence at bay. This change in pattern by no means unanimous, but at least the hope that next weekend sees more widespread drier weather than we have experienced for the past 4 weeks, and if high pressure does dominate we will be seeing some overnight frost and fog patches. As we look further out towards mid to late January there is still little sign of much if any cold or snow on the horizon.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=201932:PPVG89 windy showers lsr Mon.png][attachment=201933:ecmt850.048 windy showery Mon.png][attachment=201934:PPVJ89 windy showery Tue.png][attachment=201935:PPVL89 m dry Wed less wind.png][attachment=201936:ecmt850.096 wave L perhaps wet Wed night.png][attachment=201947:PPVO89 wave L wet wed night south.png][attachment=201937:ukprec potential wet early Th.png][attachment=201940:PPVO89 becoming m dry bright Th.png][attachment=201948:ecmt850.120 drying Th.png][attachment=201949:h850t850eu drying Th pm.png][attachment=201950:ecmt850.168 m dry weekend frosts.png][attachment=201951:h850t850eu GFS more unsettled weather rain times.png][attachment=201953:prcpWarwickshire somewhat drier this week.png][attachment=201954:t850Warwickshire near normal temps all week.png][attachment=201956:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  2. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mild and mostly dry with sunny spells; frost and fog patches overnight; turning unsettled next weekend[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Mostly dry with some sunny spells since last Tuesday with temperatures around or a little above the April average (13c) although quite warm at times for the Midlands where Coventry topped 16c (60f) on Wednesday for example. There were a few ground frosts as is typical in April still, down close to zero on both Wednesday and Friday night at this particular cold hollow. With the Bluebells coming out and the Swallows arriving back from Africa plenty more dry and mild weather to come this week too although with some frost and fog by night. Easter weekend.. and things gradually turn more unsettled.

    A ridge of high pressure gives a pleasant rather mild Sunday with sunny spells, although I note some sea fog this morning for Cardigan Bay on [url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html"]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html[/url] which may persist. Highs 13 to 15c generally but only 11c where sea fog or low cloud persists, quite a NW breeze on Sunday afternoon though. Clear spells tonight with ground frost in places lows 2 to 5c inland. High pressure centred over Ireland on Monday so another rather nice day with sunny spells and maxima 12 to 14c close to average. With clear skies and calm conditions on Monday night a widespread frost develops by midnight and also fog patches, down just below zero in places but milder and frost- free near coasts. The high migrates over the North Sea on Tuesday, more of a SE breeze eventually and warmer highs 14 to 16c, West Wales most favoured. Clear and cold again though for Tuesday night, another widespread frost, a few spots down to -2c perhaps and foggy in places too by dawn. Still a high pressure ridges over from the east on Wednesday so another good day, sunny periods after any fog clears and quite warm highs of 14 to 16c, a few coasts affected by sea mist and cooler however. Frost more restricted on Wednesday night, but still a ground frost locally down to 1c and again mist and fog patches develop.

    Things get more complicated later in the week with various air masses attempting influence over the UK and with implications for the Easter too. Still not a great deal of rain about on the whole, so not too bad an Easter Weekend. On Thursday largely dry again but a weak cold front moving down from the NW seems likely to be bringing more in the way of cloud and a little rain or drizzle in places. It could be that the Midlands remains fine, bright and rather warm on Thursday though. HIghs anywhere between 11 and 15c for West Wales, and 13 to 17c for the Midlands depending on cloud cover. Ground frost risks once more for Thursday night as skies clear. Still a ridge of sorts across Wales and England for Good Friday which looks like a fine, rather warm dry day highs of 18c in places, so well above the April average.

    By the weekend high pressure may have pulled away to Scandinavia with pressure tending to fall gradually across the UK. All highly speculative trying to predict a week in advance but Saturday may well be another generally dry, fine day but with some showers perhaps breaking out in places later on, and another reasonably mild day. More definate low pressure over us by Easter Sunday and Monday although hopefully not a washout! Some areas of rain or showers about then but with sunny intervals between, there may be some thunder in places too. Monday is showing the strongest potential for wet weather but this may alter. Cool where cloudy and wet, mild if the sun appears![/font]
  3. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable with some rain at times but largely dry and bright mid week; temperatures around average, ground frost risk[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Very high temperatures last Sunday for March, 18 to 20c reached widely, highest readings 20.7c at Porthmadog and 20.6c here at Llanwnnen. Thunderstorms in places on Monday along with Saharan dust deposits, if you wondered why the car was so dirty! The SE winds also brought high air pollution levels to the Midlands in particular up until Thursday. The very mild weather lasted to Wednesday for many areas, but some coastal areas were cooler, as were parts of the Midlands at times with persistent cloud and haze. Mild again this weekend but with rain at times, especially over Wales, Capel Curig has seen over 40mm in the past 24 hours. Saturday night was very mild no lower than 11c here, the same true for many other places too.[/font]

    [font=Helvetica]March 2014 was a mild, bright and rather dry month for most areas, just a few spots attaining average rainfall such as the Rugby area. Some March Rainfall totals:

    Llanwnnen 68.8mm (77% of average)
    Trawsgoed: 64mm
    Pembrey Sands: 54mm
    Rugby 47.2mm
    Coventry: 44.2mm (93%)
    Coleshill 40.0mm
    Little Rissington 37.4mm

    After rain on Monday high pressure is stuck to our SW during the coming week, it will be changeable with some rain at times, but plenty of dry weather too. SW Wales most favoured for escaping the rain after Monday and generally Wednesday is likely to be a dry, pleasant day. With the west to NW flow temperatures not much better than average (12 or 13c), although the Midlands should better this on a few days while NW Wales struggles to top 12c all week.

    Dull, wet and windy for Wales on Sunday morning, this rain affecting the Midlands too at times this afternoon. The rain should clear Wales this afternoon and the Midlands this evening, but the front does not exit the south and in fact waves back over us during tonight. Quite a wet night to come then, especially for Wales, with the rain heavy at times and lasting into Monday. The cold front clears through West Wales in the morning with sunny intervals for the afternoon, but the rain lingering well into the afternoon for the Midlands before eventually it brightens up. Sunny intervals and blustery showers for West Wales to end Monday with hail in places. A cooler day for Wales highs of 10 or 11c generally, but 14c for the Midlands. Clear spells and just a few showers about during Monday night, chance of a grass frost locally if the breeze drops off. HIgh pressure moves in close to our SW on Tuesday but the NW flow brings a few showers still along with sunny spells, Pembrokeshire most favoured for a dry, bright day. Maxima on Tuesday a rather cool 10 to 12c with the NW breeze keen. Clear periods for Tuesday night with a widespread ground frost and lows of around 2c, although perhaps too much breeze for this for West Wales bar in the hollows. High pressure over the south for Wednesday so a nice, bright day with sunny spells and highs 12 to 14c. Dry with clear spells on Wednesday night, ground frost should be restricted to the Midlands as cloud and breeze may increase for Wales.

    HIgh pressure eases away SW on Thursday permitting a front to move down from the NW. A bright start for the Midlands but clouding over with mainly light rain at times afternoon which may not reach the Midlands until late in the day. Highs Thursday just 10c for damp Snowdonia, but 14c for the brighter Midlands. Clearing skies overnight again with grass frost risk. A cool NNW flow seems likely for Friday, mostly dry and bright West Wales but some sharp showers and hail featuring over the Midlands. Highs just 10 to 12c. High pressure probably not close enough to our SW next weekend to prevent some rain at times, but no washout and dry and bright at times, although with rather cool west to NW breezes. Pembrokeshire again has the best chance of escaping the rain next weekend with some pleasant sunshine here at times closest to the high. Maxima estimated at beween 10 and 14c for most over next weekend and should it clear overnight then there is a ground frost risk.
    [attachment=210539:ecmt850.024 wet tonight wave L.png][attachment=210540:PPVG89 rain eventually to showers Mon.png][attachment=210541:PPVJ89 breezy few showers Tue.png][attachment=210542:PPVM89 dry bright Wed.png][attachment=210543:ecmt850.072 m dry Tue to Wed cool breeze.png][attachment=210544:h850t850eu fine dry Wed.png][attachment=210545:PPVO89 light rain eventually TH.png][attachment=210546:ecmt850.168 r cool some rain times weekend.png][attachment=210547:h850t850eu some rain times weekend r cool.png][attachment=210548:viewimage some rain times this week.png][attachment=210549:viewimage m dry week Pembs after Mon.png][attachment=210550:viewimage temps about ave overall.png][attachment=210551:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font]
  4. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica]
    [b]Headline: Often warm with rain in places and thunder chances to mid week; Thursday perhaps wet, then cooler and changeable[/b][/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    Some places,particularly the Midlands saw their coldest temperature for a year last Sunday, widely -3c or -4c and colder than anything the mild Winter could offer. Here at Llanwnnen it fell to -3.9c but was only the lowest since November (-7c), many nights saw at least a ground frost last week. The Midlands had a lovely dry and bright Moday, but a slow moving front made it a wet afternoon across SW Wales. West Wales fared best overall last week, seeing the best of the sunny spells and less of the showers compared with the Midlands, where hail and thunder featured highly. On Thursday afternoon the temperature at Coventry dropped from 9c to just 3c with hail, sleet and thunder in the area. There was some snow cover for high ground such as the Brecon Beacons at times last week, temperatures generally being on the cool side, although West Wales managed some days up to an average 11 or 12c. Showers more widespread on Friday, Coventry and some other parts getting thunderstorms and large hail, this up to 2cm in diameter at Gaydon, Warwickshire. A big change in the weather this weekend, as SE winds have introduced warm air off the Continent, on Saturday 16c was reached for West Wales in places and 18c for parts of the Midlands where it was also a sunny day. [/font][font=Helvetica]


    More very mild even warm weather in the coming week although with rain or showers at times too, and cooling off somewhat from Thursday. Sunday, a largely dry afternoon with spells of hazy sunshine. especially for the Midlands again, just the chance of some light showers for Pembrokeshire as a front wriggles over the Irish Sea. Highs between 17 and 20c this afternoon, way above the late March average of 12c. A keen SE breeze however. A largely dry, mild night no lower than 6c. Fronts move into the SW during Monday bringing more in the way of cloud and with showery rain in places, this turning heavier and more prolonged across Wales afternoon, with the chance of thunder. Some showers for the West Midlands although much of the East Midlands escaping with a dry, bright and rather warm day. Maxima ranging from 13c for Pembrokeshire to 17c for the East Midlands, the breeze less of a feature on Monday. Things drying up through Monday night with clear spells and a grass frost in places. A low pressure anchored west of Spain continues to control our weather through to mid week dragging some further warm air from the SE. Tuesday may well be a dry day with spells of hazy sunshine and highs of 17 to 19c, very good for the start of April! Just the chance of some rain flirting with Pembrokeshire later in the day. The Continental feed of air continues for Wednesday so another warm one, highs 16 to 19c for most places, sunny intervals but also showers breaking out in places too, perhaps thundery. A fresh SE wind on Wednesday knocking the edge off the temperatures.

    Thursday could be a day of sharp contrasts, a slow moving front across western parts, with West Wales perhaps wet and much cooler, while the Midlands could see another warm day with rain holding off until later in the day? 20c for the East Midlands but only 12c for wetter West Wales. This could change but a wet day for some on Thursday seems likely, and with thunder for a few areas too. Great variabilty and uncertainty in the weather models for the end of the week but a somewhat cooler prospect is expected with further rain at times for Friday and next weekend, but there should also be some pleasant dry interludes, so a mixed bag really. Temperatures probably close to or a little above average at 12 to 15c max and with frost unlikely.
    [attachment=210210:PPVG89 mild showery rain Mon.png][attachment=210211:h850t850eu mild unsettled Mon.png][attachment=210212:PPVJ89 m dry warm Tue.png][attachment=210213:h850t850eu warm m dry Tue.png][attachment=210214:ecmt850.072 dry warm Tue.png][attachment=210215:PPVL89 Wed warm some showers.png][attachment=210216:h850t850eu Wed thundery potential warm.png][attachment=210217:PPVL89 Wed warm some showers.png][attachment=210218:metslp.120 unsettled wet in places Thu.png][attachment=210219:PPVO89 Potentiually wet WW warm Mids.png][attachment=210219:PPVO89 Potentiually wet WW warm Mids.png][attachment=210220:ecmt850.144 messy FR Sa still r warm.png][attachment=210221:h850t850eu cool wet outlier weekend.png][attachment=210222:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion rain at times this week.png][attachment=210223:t850Sir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion warm mid week then cooling.png][attachment=210224:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font]
  5. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Cool with rain at times, drier after mid week and milder next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Mild and mostly dry until Thursday last week, then a rain front swept east introducing the cooler air mass we have been in since with showers about, but generally only modest precipitation accumulations. Plenty of hail showers on Saturday, and some of the hills saw sleet or snow, while a few parts of the Midlands such as Redditch and Long Buckby appear to have had thunder. A cool and rather unsettled week to come, although overall rainfall quantities not high again, but some rain or showers at times the theme, tending to become drier from mid week and milder next weekend. March 2014 is set to end up mild overall though with rain totals around average.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Further hail showers around on Sunday morning, they put down a covering of stones here first thing, and for Sunday afternoon a scattering of rain and hail showers, but these are now dying out across West Wales. Rather cool highs of 8 to 10c similar to Saturday and with a brisk NW breeze. A ridge arrives tonight, so winds drop off and skies clear this evening to give a widespread, and for the end of March, hard frost. Most inland places getting down to between -2 to -4c, and locally for the Midlands a -6c is possible, so the coldest night of 'Winter' here! By dawn on Monday the frost will be lifting over West Wales as a breeze picks up and it clouds over ahead of an advancing front. Rain into Pembrokeshire by around noon, this slowly edging NE across Wales afternoon, some quite heavy, so a cool, wet and windy afternoon over the Principality, highs just 7 or 8c, well below the late March average of 11c. In contrast dry and bright for much of Monday for the Midlands, temperatures up to 10c, the rain not reaching the East Midlands probably until after dark. The rain band then grinds to a halt over the East Midlands giving a wet night here, while by midnight Wales and much of the West Midlands has dried out. A frost for West Wales on Monday night down to -2c in places inland, and perhaps a ground frost for the West Midlands too by dawn if the cloud breaks. Two rain areas to contend with on Tuesday, the old Midlands front may edge back west to give a wet afternoon across much of the region, while another low is skirting SW Wales, so the threat of a wet spell here too at some stage. In between though Mid and NW Wales MAY escape with little and even see some sunny intervals during Tuesday and just the odd shower. Very cool on Tuesday for the dull damp Midlands and an easterly breeze, no better than 6 or 7c here, but any brightness for West Wales means 9c is possible in places. A decaying front across West Wales on Tuesday night with a little rain or drizzle in places may prevent another frost here, but a clearance expected for the Midlands means at least a grass frost down to around 0c. Another cool day with a NE wind on Wednesday, although over West Wales at least we should see some sunny intervals and 9 or 10c, while it is a cloudy and eventually damp afternoon for the Midlands no higher than 8c here. More significant rain may develop across the Midlands during Wednesday evening as a low feature moves in from off the North Sea, and even some rain may reach West Wales by midnight too, cold enough for sleet or snow above about 200m, but this not settling. At least the cloud should prevent a frost for most places on Wednesday night.

    High pressure over Scandinavia trying to exert its influence to the UK by Thursday so hopes for drier conditions. However there may well be plenty of cloud still and some further light showers especially for the south of our regions. Cool again, temperatures only managing 8 to 10c at best. A few lucky places seeing sunny intervals on Thursday but generally a lot of cloud with some of us seeing showers, a gentle east breeze. There may be a ground frost in places dawn Friday, then a lot of cloud and a chilly east wind again, SW Wales favoured best for any sunny spells and 11c here should these develop, but elsewhere around 7 to 9c only, and a few drizzly showers possible over the Midlands in particular.

    Next weekend we are between high pressure to our north and a low over Iberia. Hope then of something milder as winds shift more to the SE off a fairly warm Continent, although tempered by a stiff breeze. Perhaps still a lot of cloud on Saturday wirh showery rain in places, but a better chance of seeing the sun on Sunday and temperatures responding up to a respectable 14c in places. Frost risk low by next weekend. It looks like turning cool and unsettled though once more as we get into April.

    [/size][/font]
  6. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild and often dry to mid week, then cool and unsettled; wintry showers possible from Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A welcome dry week gone, barely a drop of rain, but with a lot of local variation depending on cloud cover and fog. Generally though it was a sunny week with some warm temperatures at times. Last Sunday saw 15 to 18c widely, and 18.6c at Coventry, notably warm for early March. Wednesday and Thursday saw highly contrasting conditions, a sunny 16c at Llanwnnen and 17c at Bala on Wednesday, but fog and low cloud problematic for other areas really pegging back temperatures where it stuck. Parts of the West Midlands only reached a cool 7c for example on Wednesday, while on Thursday some coastal parts of SW Wales remained foggy with Aberporth only managing 6c max compared to 15c here inland where the morning fog cleared to sunshine. Much of West Wales cooled off on Friday while the Midlands warmed up! Overnight frosts quite a feature last week and Friday mornings minimum of -3.6c here was the lowest since November. Warmth again for the Midlands on Saturday, 15.5c reached at Church Lawford and Little Rissington.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Further mild and often dry weather up to mid week after which it turns decidedly cool and unsettled. Warm and sunny for the Midlands on Sunday clouding over somewhat late afternoon, temperatures up to 17 or 18c, more in the way of cloud for West Wales, a spit of drizzle for some, with just a few sunny intervals at times and highs 12 to 14c. A mild, mostly dry night follows. A ridge of high pressure over southern Britain for Monday so another generally dry picture, sunny intervals and just the odd drizzly shower for Snowdonia. Highs 10c for Snowdonia, 12c for SW Wales and 14c for parts of the Midlands where it is a fine, bright day, light to moderate westerly winds on Monday. A trough of low pressure crosses during Tuesday, this bringing some rain to Wales in the early hours and thence to the Midlands by morning along with a fresh to strong west wind. Rain or showers in places a threat then during much of Tuesday, some places not seeing much though. A cooler day with the brisk NW wind, highs just 9 or 10c for West Wales and 11 or 12c for the Midlands. Any showers die out Tuesday evening leaving a dry night with no frost. High pressure returns close to our south for Wednesday which sees an improvement. A dry but breezy day, sunny spells prevail for the Midlands but with more in the way of cloud expected for West Wales, maxima 12 or 13c West Wales and 15 or 16c Midlands, so very mild here. The SW wind freshening afternoon, and a little rain may reach NW Wales by evening. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A deep low to the north of Scotland influences our weather for the latter part of the week pushing high pressure to our SE away. A slow moving front edges rain down from the NW on Thursday, so likely to turn wet and windy afternoon across Wales while it may hold off until evening for the Midlands. Cool for much of Wales with the wind and rain, highs 10c at best here but where brightness lasts 14c for the SE Midlands. Potential for a lot of rain overnight Thursday as a wave may develop along the front stalling its progress, and turning cold enough for sleet or snow over the high ground of Wales. A cool, showery westerly flow on Friday, hail showers, and likely to be wintry at times over the hills of Wales, but with sunny intervals as well. Highs just 6 to 8c on Friday so feeling much colder for many of us. A frost for Friday night with clear spells. With low pressure sticking close to Scotland more cool, showery weather next weekend too, again these wintry over high ground, and snow a possibilty to lower ground too although not settling, this more likely should showers occur overnight. Some further slight frosts likely by night. Maxima in the 7 to 10c range, but it should not feel too bad in the sunny spells, as the sun is getting quite strong now.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=209390:PPVG89 R dry Mon.png][attachment=209391:ecmt850.024 R m dry Mon.png][attachment=209392:PPVJ89 someain or showers tue.png][attachment=209399:h850t850eu cooler unsettled Tue.png][attachment=209393:ecmt850.096 m dry mild Wed.png][attachment=209400:h850t850eu windy dry Wed.png][attachment=209395:ecmt850.096 active front TH pm.png][attachment=209396:h850t850eu turns wet windy eventually Th.png][attachment=209402:ukprec poterntial wave stall early Fri.png][attachment=209397:ecmt850.144 cool showery Fri.png][attachment=209398:h850t850eu cool showery Fri.png][attachment=209401:h850t850eu cool showery weekend.png][attachment=209403:prcpWarwickshire rain or showers from Thu especially.png][attachment=209405:prmslWarwickshire increasingly unsettled week.png][attachment=209406:t850Warwickshire colder from FRi.png][attachment=209407:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  7. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry and mild to very mild with sunny spells but perhaps cloudier for the Midlands; overnight slight frosts[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although we still saw some rain at times last week, it was generally a lot drier than over recent months. It became very mild across the Midlands and South Wales by Friday, highs of 14 or 15c in places. Then on Saturday the very mild weather was more widespread in spite of the wind, with across West Wales 14.9c the high at Llanwnnen, 15.4c Gogerddan, 14.4c Pembrey Sands and for the Midlands 16.2c Pershore and 14.4c Church Lawford, way above the early March average of 9 or 10c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    At long last high pressure will be controlling the weather over the UK in the coming week with Spring well and truly arriving - we will see barely a drop of rain, some decent sunny spells and mild, perhaps even quite warm temperatures, although clear spells will result in slight overnight frosts. The Midlands more likely to suffer from cloud at times due to the drift of air off the nearby cool North Sea, whereas West Wales fares best for sunshine through to Thursday. Sunday is another fine and very mild day for most and much less windy than was Saturday. Plenty of sunshine for the Midlands and temperatures should manage 16 or 17c here, while for West Wales a cloudy start but this thinning to give sunny spells this afternoon for most of us with highs of 13 or 14c here. A weakening front moves down from the NW overnight Sunday with a spot of rain or drizzle possible in places and temperatures staying above 5c due to the cloud cover, although a clearance across NW Wales may result in a touch of ground frost here around dawn Monday. High pressure establishes over the UK during Monday but with the decayed front lying within it and probably across the Midlands. A cloudy start on Monday for most but hopeful that it brightens to give some afternoon sunshine, this more likely over Wales. Much cooler than Sunday for the Midlands especially, highs on Monday 11 to 13c but pleasant enough given the gentle breezes. Clearing skies and becoming frosty on Monday night, as low as -2c in parts of Ceredigion. Another dry day for Tuesday, sunny spells especially further west, as the easterly breeze could well bring areas of cloud to the Midlands afternoon. Highs ranging from 13c for Cardigan Bay to 11c for the East Midlands, so quite mild. Any cloud dissolves on Tuesday evening with frost readily forming, locally -2c for inland Wales by dawn. Mist and fog for parts of the Midlands around dawn Wednesday perhaps. High pressure centred just to our east over the North Sea on Wednesday which should be another mild and bright day with a light SE breeze. West Wales favoured for the best of the sunshine and temperatures, a rather warm 15c in places here but nearer 12c for those parts of the Midlands where afternoon cloud sticks around. [/size][/font]
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    More of the same for Thursday, so after an early frost and mist or fog in places, sunny spells once more, better sunny periods expected for Cardigan Bay. Thursday could be the mildest day of the week with highs 14 to 16c quite widely and just a light breeze.Yet another slight frost possible for Thursday night. Subtle changes during Friday as a low passes to the north of Scotland shifting winds around to the west or SW, this means the best of the temperatures and sunshine tranfer to the Midlands by the end of the week. It should be a dry and bright day everywhere, although it may cloud over somewhat in the afternoon for Wales, highs 12c for West Wales and perhaps 15c even 16c for the Midlands. A weak cold front may bring a little rain on Friday night and looks set to cool things off more generally into the weekend, but some disagreement as to just how much cooler, and in fact the Midlands could stay decidely mild through much of next weekend too? High pressure next weekend to our SW but close enough to still provide plenty of dry weather. Just a few showers in places for Saturday and with a keen NW breeze pegging temperatures back to 10 or 11c maxima for West Wales. Sunday probably milder again but rather cloudy with a little drizzle in places but this a long way ahead![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Looking even further ahead some of the charts are indicating much colder weather perhaps with snow in places as we move into the later stages of March![/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=208960:decaying front brightens Mon.png][attachment=208961:PPVJ89 r mild sunny spells Tue.png][attachment=208962:ecmt850.072 weeks pattern ESE mild ss.png][attachment=208963:PPVL89 mild bright esp WW Wed.png][attachment=208964:ecmt850.120 mildest Th perhaps.png][attachment=208965:PPVO89 VM ss Th.png][attachment=208966:h850t850eu wind shift some rain WW late Fri.png][attachment=208967:h850t850eu R from SW weekend m dry.png][attachment=208968:ecmt850.168 mild NW flow weekend.png][attachment=208969:t850Warwickshire mild all week.png][attachment=208970:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire m dry week.png][attachment=208971:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  8. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable with some rain at times; drier and milder prospects from mid week, especially Midlands[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The West Wales deluge is over! After one of the wettest Seasons on record, here at Llanwnnen 782mm the total rain for December to February, or two and a half feet! At Coventry only Winter 1976/ 77 has been wetter since 1870 ([url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]https://twitter.com/bablakewx[/url] ) . As well publicised this has been the wettest Winter on record averaged out across the whole of Wales and England, however statistics do not tell the whole story, and for some eastern parts it has been unremarkable regards rainfall, with a few places actually below average. There have though been a couple of wetter Seasons in the past, Autumn 2000 holds that crown by a fair margin with 502.7mm the England and Wales figure compared to 450.8mm for this Winter overall.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some February rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 287.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanelli: 149.9mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberdaron: 124mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 74.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby: 51.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington: 145.2mm[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The Valleys and Brecon Beacons of Wales exceeded 400mm in places! In contrast parts of Lincolnshire had less than 40mm.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The Winter was also very notable for its lack of cold and snow, with most low lying areas seeing no lying snow at all - even the hills of Mid Wales have seen precious little. We have had completely snow free Winters before but they are uncommon, and often they are followed by a snowfall or two sometime during March or April. Something of an improvement in weather fortunes this week, with some dry and mild periods mid week onwards, the Midlands better favoured for this.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Bits and pieces of rain and drizzle become more continuous and heavier through Sunday afternoon across Wales and onto the Midlands by early evening along with a fresh to strong SSW wind. The rain clears overnight with a deep low centred over SW England by dawn Monday. This low then fills out over southern England through Monday with light air flows close to it. This means some slow moving downpours likely across Wales and the Midlands, with Cardigan Bay and NW Wales perhaps missing the worst of these. Elsewhere though some very heavy showers knocking about with hail and thunder in places, there should be some sunny intervals between them. Highs of 8 or 9c which is close to the early March average, with fairly light winds. Showers dying out on Monday night for the Midlands but a few keep on for West Wales, where clearances permit a local ground frost, down close to 0c for some inland parts. A very unconvincing ridge tries to dry things out for Tuesday but troughs and lows are surrounding it and so we should not expect a completely dry day as there will be showers, even some longer spells of rain in places, hard to say where exactly. Temperatures again close to average around 9c. Clear spells may well lead to a widespread ground frost on Tuesday night with any showers dying out and little in the way of wind. A proper ridge over southern Britain on Wednesday so much better prospects for a dry day. Fairly mild with sunny intervals although a weak warm front may be bringing drizzle to West Wales by evening. Highs 10 or 11c. Clearing skies means another ground frost and it may well touch zero somewhere.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]High pressure then lies close to southern and eastern UK for the rest of the week and into next weekend, so the best of the weather always over SE England while Atlantic fronts bring spells of rain to the NW. Wales and the Midlands inbetween and so experiencing some decent dry conditions but with the risk of rain extending this far south at times too. SW winds will bring mild air however, and so where it brightens, and best prospects for this are the Midlands then some pretty high temperatures for early March can be expected, with even the first 60f of the Spring a possibility by the weekend. Thursday then looks a generally dry and mild day, sunny intervals especially for the Midlands and South Wales although a front over northern Britain may affect NW Wales with some rain or drizzle possible here later in the day. Mild highs 10 to 12c but with a keen SW wind developing especially over Wales. A more active frontal system may cross all parts on Thursday night with rain for Wales which then affects the Midlands for a time on Friday, but it could be that the high close by kills off the worst of this leaving a mainly dry picture again. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Potential for an incursion of very mild air next weekend, with Saturday most favoured for dry bright and quite warm conditions, the Midlands perhaps reaching 14 to 16c (61f). This scenario still by no means certain, however it should be a dry, mild day at least. Rain may affect West Wales late on Saturday and here more cloud and wind pegging temperatures closer to 12 or 13c. A spell of rain is then likely to cool things off for next Sunday. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=208615:PPVG89 SM showers Mon.png][attachment=208616:PPVJ89 drier Tue some rain about though.png][attachment=208617:h850t850eu some rain about others stay dry Tu.png][attachment=208618:PPVL89 Wed m dry.png][attachment=208619:ecmt850.096 m dry Wed.png][attachment=208620:PPVO89 dry VM MIds some rain WW THU.png][attachment=208621:ecmt850.120 dry mild Mids rain later WW THu.png][attachment=208622:ecmt850.168 potentially VM Sat rain late WW.png][attachment=208623:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=208624:mild from mid week.png][attachment=208625:viewimage above 1020 from TH.png][attachment=208626:viewimage m dry Mids from Wed.png]
  9. TonyH
    [size=3][font=arial][b]Headline: Unsettled, rain or showers at times; temperatures mild to average; drying next weekend[/b]

    A relaxation in the stormy wet weather last week, although we all saw some rain and wind at times, rainfall only amounted to 28.2mm here for the past 7 days and just 8.4mm at Coventry. There were some pleasant, mainly dry conditions at times, in particular for the Midlands. Wednesday the mildest of the year so far in some places with Hereford reaching 13.3c and Trawscoed 12c with sunny intervals, although Carmarthenshire had a cloudy, drizzly day and just 9c the high. Thursday was the mildest night of the month to that point, lows just 7.3c here and 7.9c at Coventry for example. Then a very mild day with sunny spells for the Midlands on Thursday Coventry reaching 12.2c. Any frosts that occured were only slight as has been the pattern all Winter, that of infrequent frost next to no snow. With only a few days remaining of 'Meteorological Winter' (Dec 1st to Feb 28th) the coldest night has failed to fall lower than -3c here in the frost hollow of Llanwnnen, most Winters would see at least -8c.

    Strong winds on Sunday, gusts of 55mph at Llanwnnen and 93mph Capel Curig this morning. A mild moist SW flow over the country today, some western parts seeing large rainfall totals by Monday morning, in particular Snowdonia where over 50mm is expected in the next 24 hours. So a wet Sunday afternoon and evening for much of West Wales along with strong to gale force winds, the Midlands just seeing a little light rain and drizzle from time to time. Very mild, last night most places remained above 8c and with highs between 10 and 12c this afternoon. Further rain overnight for Wales, heavy in places, and again intermittent light rain for the Midlands. No lower than 7c for the Midlands, but the cold front comes through West Wales by dawn with a clearance and much lighter winds so lows of 4 or 5c here. The cold front lingers across the Midlands with spells of rain through Monday morning before becomimg mostly dry for the afternoon. For West Wales on Monday some sunny intervals along with some mainly light showers, highs a mild 8 to 10c. By Monday evening a deep low is approaching Ireland with further wet and windy weather into Wales, this reaching the Midlands around midnight. This rain band soon clears through all areas by dawn on Tuesday, leaving a day of blustery showers and sunny intervals. For West Wales plenty of showers, heavy and prolonged at times with hail in places, but relatively few for the Midlands, although even here some heavy ones in places. Windy on Tuesday with gales for coasts and hills of Wales, highs 7 to 9c. Strong winds and showers dying down on Tuesday night, some keeping going across West Wales though and these could turn wintry over the Brecon Beacons, lows of 2 to 4c. Low pressure to our north on Wednesday so still some showers about, but a better chance that some areas miss these and get a fine, bright, mostly dry day, in other places though the showers line up to give wet spells through the day. Highs on Wednesday between 7 and 9c again, a little above the late February average. Breezy rather than windy for Wednesday. A rather squally band of rain looks like crossing over during Wednesday night but should be cleared by dawn.

    Thursday then looks like another showery day with longer spells of rain in places, some sunny intervals too. Highs again above average with quite a breeze, but turning colder pm with perhaps wintry showers over the hills by evening. Low pressure still close by although perhaps filling up by Friday, so less in the way of wind but there will still be areas of showery rain about, although a few areas may stay predominantly dry. HIghs likely to be aroud the average of 7 or 8c. By Saturday fewer showers as the low edges east into the near Continent, a slack NNE flow over the UK, highs around 7c. A good signal from the models that a strong ridge of high pressure builds across by Sunday bringing the highest barometer readings since January, perhaps even attaining 1020mbar! Should this play out then a frosty start to Sunday with a lovely fairly sunny day, although perhaps a little chilly for early March at 7c max or so. Don't get your hopes up however, as the models are not yet convinced of a prolonged spell of dry, bright weather![/font][/size]
    [font=arial][size=1][attachment=208268:PPVG89 rain to some showers Mon.png][attachment=208269:PPVJ89 blustery showers Tue pro WW.png][attachment=208270:ecmt850.072 showery Tue.png][attachment=208271:PPVJ89 blustery showers Tue pro WW.png][attachment=208272:PPVL89 showers in places Wed.png][attachment=208273:PPVO89 showery Th.png][attachment=208274:ecmt850.144 showers about Fri less wind.png][attachment=208275:ecmt850.168 fewer showers Sat.png][attachment=208276:ecmt850.192 strong R frost dry Sun.png][attachment=208277:h850t850eu frost dry Sun.png][attachment=208278:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire wet at times WW.png][attachment=208279:prcpWarwickshire rain at times.png][attachment=208280:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  10. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Changeable with rain at times but drying out between times; mild to mid week then cooler and showers maybe wintry in places[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another soaking for many of us last week, February is turning into an exceptionally wet month across West Wales and at the half way point an astounding 213mm here in Ceredigion, the near relentless rains difficult to comprehend even for this wet area! Wetness not extreme for the central Midlands but still in excess of the February average of 40 - 50mm already, although some places such as Rugby have been drier. This has meant few flooding issues across Warwickshire and Leicestershire this month, the rivers coping well compared to the Thames and Severn the catchments which have been receiving exceptional quantities of rain since December. Some places saw snow last week, generally hardly any, but the A44 inland from Aberystwyth near the Red Kite Centre was closed on Tuesday morning by heavy snow, and snow fell for a while across much of the Midlands though not amounting to much at low levels. Not a completely snowless Winter at least for some! Another feature of the week gone were the high winds on Wednesday and again Friday which caused extensive damage and disruption, power outages and brought trees down. Highest gusts on Tuesday:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Aberdaron 108mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Mumbles 96mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberporth 87mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen 61mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry 57mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington 68mph[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Then on Friday South Wales and the Midlands hit hard, Coventry having a gust of 60mph which was the equal highest on record at the city centre site, while Little Rissington in the Cotswolds saw 67mph, these damaging winds for inland. Friday was eventually a mild day after some morning sleet in places, many places reaching 10 or 11c. Atmospheric pressure was below 1000mbar from February 3rd to 15th - a measure of this remarkably unsettled, wet and stormy spell, and doubtful that this has happened for a very long time. At last on Sunday a respite with, unusually for Winter 2014, a calm, frosty sunny morning! Although we will be getting some dry interludes in the week ahead, especially much of Tuesday and Wednesday - the overall picture remains unsettled right to the end of the month, so further wet and windy weather at times is the longer outlook. Yet again a largely snowless week coming up and although there will be some frosts, these never harsh. Damaging winds are not expected in the week ahead, nor is significant flooding in our regions[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A welcome ridge of high pressure giving the calm, dry and quite sunny conditions on Sunday, highs of 7 to 9c, feeling very pleasant out this afternoon for a change.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Still clear this evening for the Midlands with a frost forming, but clouding over for West Wales preventing frost here, and with light rain into SW Wales by midnight. Rain at times for Wales after midnight, some perhaps rather heavy, and it clouds over the Midlands lifting the frost here, with some rain possible by dawn. A flabby low close to Ireland on Monday, not a windy day but a damp if not especially wet one for the Midlands, more distinctly wet at times for West Wales, some rather heavy bursts here at times. Highs of 7 to 9c again but not feeling pleasant like in Sunday's sunshine. Most of the rain has cleared away by midnight, but still bits and pieces through the night and too much cloud for any frost, lows around 5c. Nothing much going on for Tuesday, a gentle mild westerly flow bringing a few showers along with sunny breaks, so not a bad day for most, up to 10c in places. A mostly dry, quiet night to follow, any clearances leading to a ground frost locally, but not near coasts. The odd shower cannot be ruled out though.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another largely dry day on Wednesday too, as a transient ridge passes over, some sunny intervals especially for the Midlands. Quite a mild day again highs around 10c. A deep low pressure will on Wednesday night..not be heading our way for once..rather following a more traditional path south of Iceland! This does though bring rain and strengthening SW winds to Wales late Wednesday afternoon or evening, some of this heavy, this rain then affecting the Midland by midnight. We will be in a warm sector so temperatures no lower than 6 to 8c, very mild for a February night. As the cold front comes through during Thursday morning a secondary low feature may form on this enhancing the rain where it does develop, this may be over the north or further south. It seems then that some of us could have a wet Thursday morning, but it is likely that this clears to sunshine and showers afternoon, these particularly for West Wales where there will be hail in them. Highs on Thursday occurring in the morning at 7 to 10c, mildest for South Wales and the South Midlands, then with a cool down expected afternoon along with a fresh west or NW wind making it feel chilly. Continuing showers for Welsh coasts and hills overnight Thursday could be turning wintry, certainly for high ground, and a ground frost forms quite widely. Friday and low pressure could be centred over the North Sea with a chilly showery NW flow, again wintriness can be expected for hilly areas. As is typical in a showery NW flow, Cardigan Bay, Snowdonia and the NW Midlands most affected by showers while some other areas escape. Highs on Friday a cool 5 to 7c with quite a fresh NW breeze. Too far off to be sure but a ridge could dry things up with a frost on Friday night? [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Even more of a split in the options weatherwise for next weekend, best guess is a dry, fine Saturday followed by some rain on Sunday, but do not hold me to this! The weather then looks like it will become very disturbed, often wet and windy for the final 4 or 5 days of the month.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=207859:PPVG89 Mon rain times.png][attachment=207860:ecmt850.048 L Ire rain times Mon.png][attachment=207861:PPVJ89 few showers mild Tu.png][attachment=207862:PPVM89 m dry mild Wed rain to WW eve.png][attachment=207863:ecmt850.096 mild wet Wed night.png][attachment=207864:ukprec heavy rai n possible Th morning.png][attachment=207865:h850t850eu rain to showers Th.png][attachment=207866:PPVO89 TH rain am to showers.png][attachment=207867:metslp.120 potential sec L TH wet in places.png][attachment=207869:h850t850eu wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=207869:h850t850eu wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=207870:ecmt850.168 dry Sat rain Sun.png][attachment=207871:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire Rain times some heavy.png][attachment=207872:prcpWarwickshire some rain dry interludes.png][attachment=207873:prmslWarwickshire mostly L R Wed.png][attachment=207874:t850Warwickshire mild to mid week then cooling.png][attachment=207875:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  11. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing very disturbed, spells of rain or showers on most days, any drier interludes most likely Midlands; limited wintriness[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]An exceptionally wet start to February for much of West Wales, already 129mm (over 5 inches) rainfall has fallen which is double what fell in the whole of Februaries 2012 and 2013 and is even at this early stage the wettest February since 2007 (158.4mm). Despite this flooding seems to have been relatively minor locally, with coastal flooding more of a feature than river flooding so far. Undoubtedly one of the wettest spells in the rainfall history of the area, since the start of it all on December 12th 615mm has fallen here in just 60 days! To put this into context the average annual rainfall at Coventry is about 670mm. Nowhere near as wet for the Midlands but nonetheless a wet start to the month, Coventry on 28.2mm as of this morning, which is well over half of the February average.Temperatures last week overall fairly close to the average was sometimes quite mild at other times rather chilly - this being often within the same day given the current volatility of our weather! Snow is still notable by it's absence this Winter although the Brecon Beacons did have a covering first thing on Friday. Strong winds on Saturday, gusts of 79mph at Mumbles, 65mph Aberporth, 55mph Llanwnnen, 54mph Coventry and 52mph at Coleshill, Warwickshire. A very notable feature of this Winter has been the sheer number and frequency of deep lows that have crossed the UK resulting in unusually low atmospheric pressure, besides the quantities of rain and recurring strong winds. Both Wednesday and Saturday saw the barometer fall below 970mbar across Wales and 975mbar across the Midlands, something that may usually only happen once or twice in an typical Winter. In fact at Valley on Anglesey the pressure dropped to 958mbar on Saturday. The Lampeter area and a few other parts of Wales caught a thunderstorm too on Saturday.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Little change in the weather for the coming week, continuing very unsettled with further deep lows heading our way - but surely it cannot be as wet here again! Hard to pin down details like timing really such is the speed the systems are being driven across the Atlantic by the Jet Stream, so the wet periods may vary somewhat from is detailed below, suffice to say we will all see spells of wet weather or heavy showers almost daily through the course of this week again, with the Midlands favoured to be less wet than West Wales as the hills continue to suck out the moisture. Quite cold at times too with a chance that some us see a little of the white stuff this week, more especially on Tuesday when colder air is over the UK.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some lively rain and hail showers about Wales today - a few continuing mainly close to coasts through Sunday night but with plenty of dry conditions. Clear spells this evening leading to a fairly widespread ground frost and local air frost, however the South Midlands may cloud over with a little rain late in the night. A ridge of high pressure keeps it fairly dry throughout Monday too, after any early light rain clears the East Midlands, then just the odd shower about chiefly for West Wales. Sunny intervals, light winds and highs of 6 or 7c about average for February. Clearing skies means a ground frost sets in during Monday evening down close to zero for many areas away from the coast. An Atlantic trough moves into Wales during the early hours of Tuesday bringing fairly heavy rain, squally winds and hill snow and which soon sweeps east across the Mildands through by dawn, by which time it is clearing West Wales. As colder air tucks in behind this trough some of the rain may turn to sleet or wet snow at lower levels too for a time, this not expected to lay though except above about 1000 feet, and in case it is cleared away by midday. Sunny intervals and some showers afternoon, again with hill snow, few though getting to the Midlands. Highs on Tuesday a rather cold 4 or 5c with a keen westerly breeze. Another widespread grass frost on Tuesday night as most showers die out, 0c in places, the breeze and some continuing perhaps wintry showers preventing it from falling lower. It may be a dry, bright start to Wednesday - one of those dawns which flatters to decieve. A deepening depression is likely to move into Ireland on Wednesday bringing a further bout of wet and windy weather especially through the afternoon or evening. The exact track and timing still not certain but it has potential to bring more rough weather with attendant wind damage and flooding issues, sleet or snow is possible for higher ground of Wales. Quite a raw feeling day as temperatures may be no higher than 5 or 6c and the rain and wind. It should be clearing to blustery showers during Wednesday night, some of these heavy with hail and thunder with snow over the hills. Winds may lull enough for another ground frost by Thursday morning. Thursday looks like a day of sunny intervals and blustery showers, mostly for the west, and temperatures close to average at 6 or 7c, but with a fresh to strong westerly wind.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A great deal of uncertainty as to detail as we get to the end of the week but it will continue unsettled. For Friday yet another low may end up somewhere over the UK, most likely the south, with more wet and windy weather. Differences in the nature of the beast this far out, but again it could have potential to bring stormy conditions and flooding once more. Rain or showers at times next weekend too, most for the west, with any drier interludes more likely for the Midlands. Very tentative signs that this prolonged highly disturbed weather pattern may relinquish somewhat towards the end of February, so that we may eventually see less in the way of rain with better chances to dry out between as the Jet Stream attempts to edge north of its present highly troublesome track? This probably not enough of a submission to prevent the wettest Winter on record however.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=206775:PPVG89 odd shower.png][attachment=206776:PPVJ89 Tu rain band hill snow am r cold.png][attachment=206777:ecmt850.072 wintry showers perhaps Tu night.png][attachment=206778:PPVL89 eventually wet windy Wed.png][attachment=206779:ecmt850.096 DL cleared to showers midnight Wed.png][attachment=206780:PPVO89 windy showery Th.png][attachment=206781:ecmt850.120 showers Th.png][attachment=206782:h850t850eu another DL FRi.png][attachment=206783:ecmt850.144 flabby channel L Fri.png][attachment=206784:ecmt850.168 unsetteld weekend.png][attachment=206785:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire another wet week.png][attachment=206786:prmslWarwickshire very unsettled week.png][attachment=206787:t850Warwickshire r cold to ave week.png][/size][/font][attachment=206788:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  12. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rather cold, very unsettled; spells of rain and wintry showers although significant lowland snow cover is not expected[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A generally mild and unsettled fortnight gone, although rather chilly at times in the past week. Rain and showers at times, although generally amounts not suspected to have caused widespread flooding, although parts of SW Wales did see an inch or two rain during Saturday 18th which may well have caused some locally? An exceptionally wet January for much of the Midlands, at Coventry it has already been the wettest January since 1939 - very wet too for West Wales but not as remarkably so - the running monthly total is 185mm here at Llanwnnen. Most places remain devoid of snow and hard frosts this Winter period, nothing especially cold in the past two weeks but we at least we have seen a number of frosty nights down to -2c or so. The coldest night of January thus far at Llanwnnen is a mere -2.8c on Tuesday 14th but by the following evening it was up to 9.3c as a warm sector of air arrived. At least the cloud has broken well at times of late to give a few quite sunny days for the Midlands, although in contrast the past week has been very dull over West Wales, only an estimated 3 hours sunshine since last Monday here for example in total. A very active squall line brought widespread hail and thunder to North Wales and the Midlands yesterday afternoon (Saturday 25th). A notably thundery Winter month has January been.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The week ahead is set to be the first colder than average week of this Winter, saying that no deep cold, but feeling cold after all the mild weather thus far and there is the chance of some snow but probably only small amounts for most below 1000 feet. Frost will feature at times by night, especially in the latter part of the week. Sunday mornings wet and windy weather, which has given over an inch to parts of Wales, is clearing the Midlands this lunchtime to leave a bright afternoon with heavy showers rattling across Wales in particular, and as is typical hail quite a feature for this region. Highs mild on Sunday at 8 to 10c. However, later this afternoon and this evening much colder air moves in from the NW so that the showers start to turn wintry. This evening and tonight then a mix of rain, sleet, hail and even snow showers, the latter especially for above 200m (650 feet) but not exclusively so. Most of the showers restricted to Wales, although a band of wintry showers should cross all parts after midnight. Any snow will be wet and is not expected to give more than a temporary slushy accumulation below 200m, although the hills of Wales should appear whitened by the morning. Nonetheless some areas will be experiencing their first, albeit belated and trivial wintriness of Winter! A grass frost forms quite widely between showers, and where clear spells and slackening breeze permit, a touch of air frost, the Midlands more favoured to drop to around zero tonight. On Monday the deep low is centred close to Northern Ireland with chilly strong westerly winds bringing further blustery showers with hail rather than sleet or snow to West Wales at this stage. A few showers getting across to the Midlands but the better prospect of dry, bright weather here during Monday. Maxima of 5 to 7c, mildest for SW Wales. As the low slowly sinks south down the Irish Sea on Monday night, the showers keep rattling into Wales and some too extended to the Midlands especially after midnight, again with hail, and possibly thunder. Too much wind and cloud on the whole for frost on Monday night, just localised ground frosts, minima generally of 2 to 4c. By Tuesday the low could well be centred over Wales, so further showers, even longer spells of rain in places, some of this quite heavy and so we may be experienced the familiar tale this Winter of localised flooding. The higher hills of Wales perhaps seeing some sleet or snow. Maxima again between 5 and 7c on Tuesday, slightly cold, but at least the wind will have eased. Any sunny intervals probably confined to the Midlands on Tuesday. With clear spells on Tuesday night given the lighter winds means a slight frost will readily form, but is dependent on where cloud manages to break. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]By Wednesday the low has sunk south into France and we pick up a bit of an easterly flow and so a touch colder perhaps. Some limited sunny intervals, plenty of cloud, a scattering of showers, wintry for hills, and they could well be turning increasingly wintry lower down too by the evening, although West Wales may miss these. Highs on Wednesday a chilly 3 to 5c. Showers die out overnight with clearing skies and a widespread frost, down to -3c in places. Thursday holds the best prospect of a dry day in the coming week, a somewhat rare commodity! We sit between low pressure systems but neither does any ridge of high pressure gain ascendance. Hopes then for a mainly, perhaps even completely dry and bright day on Thursday, but a cold one, highs no better than 3 or 4c for most. Friday, and a new deep Atlantic low is headed our way, the track of which is crucial to what weather we experience, as it engages the cold air over the UK. The odds seem to be that it passes just NW of Ireland and so we are on the relatively mild side, and so would experience standard wet and windy weather on Friday, whilst Scotland could be experiencing blizzard conditions. Hill snow risk then on Friday, but more generally lots of heavy cold rain, leading to more flooding issues no doubt! The rain could hold off until well into the afternoon for the East Midlands. Highs a raw 3 to 6c although Pembrokeshire could manage a milder 8c briefly. Proviso: A slight chance remains that the track of this low could end up several hundred miles further south, in which case the Welsh hills and Cotswolds could be hit quite hard by heavy snow next Friday? [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend seems unanimous on remaining rather cold and unsettled, further showers or longer spells of rain and the potential of some of this being wintry, especially for higher ground. Night frosts where cloud breaks and decreased wind permit.[/size][/font]
  13. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain or showers at times; mild mid week then cooler and perhaps drier, some frost[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another wet week gone but at least it became much drier from Thursday. Thunder and lightning occurred early in the week in the showers especially for Wales, here in the Lampeter area both Monday and Tuesday had overhead storms with some hail. Unusually January so far has witnessed 3 thunder days, for comparison during the whole of 2013 thunder was audible on just 4 days! Mild for the most part too last week, although some frosts since mid week, down to -2.3c here on Thursday night, the lowest reading since November and again Saturday night (-2.5c). Saturday was a lovely day with plenty of sunshine followed by a frosty night, virtually everywhere inland getting below zero for a change this Winter, lowest readings include Benson, Oxon -4.6c, Hereford -4.2c and Trawscoed at -3.5c. Winter 2013/14 has been very mild as we reach it's mid point this week, many places yet to see as much as a flake of snow! No prolonged dry spell as yet showing with low pressure dominating this week close to the UK. Never especially cold and so another week with very minimal snow risk.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A bright Sunday morning for the East Midlands but it has become cloudy and breezy elsewhere as weather fronts spread over from the west. Rain reaches West Wales early this afternoon spreading to the Midlands around sunset where it will have been a cloudy afternoon ahead. Freshening southerly winds through this afternoon into this evening along with the rain. Rain clears around midnight to leave some coastal showers out west, lows of 2 or 3c so localised grass frost. A bright and dry Monday morning for many but a showery trough moves into West Wales early afternoon this spreading showers east to the Midlands eventually by dusk, some heavy showers with hail possible. Highs a little above the mid January average at 7 or 8c on Monday afternoon. Showers largely dying out overnight and with light winds and clearing skies a widespread slight frost, down to -2c in places, still the odd shower for Welsh coasts however. A bright frosty dawn on Tuesday and for the Midlands a little bump of high pressure should mean a dry, bright day as well. A few showers about from the off for West Wales along with sunny intervals, but increasing cloud brings patchy light rain and drizzle afternoon, this spreading to the Midlands after dark. We are in a warm sector by Tuesday evening and so temperatures on the rise reaching 9 or 10c over Pembrokeshire and 6c for the East Midlands by midnight after a chilly day. A rather wet and windy but mild night to follow with the SW winds gusting gale force over coasts and hills of Wales, and where there will be heavy rain at times. Low pressure centred quite close to Ireland during Wednesday and associated fronts could be dragging their heels somewhere across Wales or England, so potentially a thoroughly wet day for certain regions as yet to be confirmed, this not helping flooding issues as the ground is saturated to capacity. A fresh SW wind through Wednesday but mild highs of around 10c. The more general rain should be clearing on Wednesday night leaving a few showers scattered about.

    Low pressure is stuck just to our NW to end the week, it's eastward progress blocked by a large cold anticyclone over Scandinavia, and so the unsettled theme continues towards the weekend. Thursday perhaps one of those days where Wales tends to catch the showers, hail in these, but the Midlands due to the SW or west flow is in the 'rain shadow' of the Welsh hills and escapes largely dry and bright? A more pronounced trough may however crop up overriding topographical factors and bring some showers across most places afternoon. Highs still quite mild at around 8c. Showers and breezes should decrease overnight Thursday for at least a ground frost to occur. down close to zero. Again probably no washout on Friday, but troughs in our vicinity, and so some showers should be expected along with sunny intervals, but, as is often the case, some areas remaining dry. Reasonable highs of 6 to 8c on Friday. A messy set up next weekend, neither low nor high gaining overall dominance, and so best that can be surmised is some decent dry spells, yet also the threat of some rain or showers at times too, Saturday perhaps the best chance of a dry, bright day. Light winds much of the weekend so any clearances overnight readily producing frost as we are not in mild air next weekend. Nothing suggests any snow during the coming week bar a little on the higher peaks. [/size][/font]
  14. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool and unsettled with rain at times; potentially dry and warm next weekend[/b]
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    Plenty of cloud last week, cool for the most part, although it briefly warmed up on Thursday when most of us reached 19 to 22c. Thursday was the only day to get above 17c here, the average September maxima being 18c, so a decidedly cool week gone. Mostly dry early in the week, but then wet at times during Thursday and Friday. Coldest night of the Autumn to date last night here, the low of 0.8c and a ground frost. Over the Midlands it got down to 4 or 5c quite widely. A cool, unsettled and at times wet and windy week ahead, although big improvement hopes for next weekend to drier and warmer conditions thanks to a former hurricane![/size][/font]
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    The first deep Autumn low is bringing strong to gale force winds and spells of rain and drizzle for Sunday afternoon, wind gusts peaking at 50 to 60mph in places, which will cause some damage and falling branches. The rain turning heavier this afternoon, especially for West Wales, where there could be over an inch in total. By midnight this low has a central pressure of 964mbar and is positioned SE of Iceland, fuelled by a jet stream which during Monday will be blasting through the UK at almost 200mph some 30,000 feet above our heads! The main rain clears through early this evening, but with rain and hail showers rattling into coastal areas of west and north Wales throughout the night.. Strong to gale force winds continuing overnight but these will have veered to NW from the SW that they are currently. The deep low is only moving slowly to the north of Scotland throughout Monday, so strong NW winds continuing, again gusting to gale force at times. Very cool and showery on Monday, plenty of blustery showers coming through, these heavy with hail in places, this especially for West Wales. Highs only between 11 and 13c, well below average for September. Cold enough for some sleet or snowflakes in the showers for high up on Snowdonia! Parts of the Midlands missing the worst of the showers on Monday where shelter is afforded by the Welsh hills. The worst of the wind should be easing as we go into Monday evening. The low still close by over the North Sea during Tuesday, with the complication of another secondary system crossing SW parts early in the day. A further scattering of showers on Tuesday, with a more general wet area tracking somewhere across Wales and the SW during the morning, the exact location uncertain, but mid and south Wales and the SW Midlands (Cotswolds) could be in for a wet Tuesday morning. A drier afternoon but still the odd shower in places, and another cool day, but at least it should be a lot less windy on Tuesday, highs only managing 13 or 14c. With clearing skies and less wind a chilly night to follow, down to 5c in places.[/size][/font]
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    On Wednesday although the by now filling low is still sat over the North Sea feeding cool NW winds, a ridge of high pressure is trying to move into the west but not really succeeding. The proximity of the ridge damping down the shower activity, although still some coming into NW Wales and through the Cheshire Gap to the NW Midlands especially, one of those days where some areas get a pleasant dry and bright day though! Cool again on Wednesday, highs between 13 and 15c. These hints of a ridge flatten on Thursday with further Atlantic fronts bringing some rain at times, although probably not so heavy this bout. A milder sector of air on Thursday, but highs no better than average reaching 15 to 18c with a keen westerly breeze. Still a rather unsettled look to the charts even on Friday but with higher pressure close to our south. Rain fronts in the vicinity of the UK though on Friday, so still the chance of some rain or showers in places, but many of us could escape with a generally dry day, but still on the cool side.[/size][/font]
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    Next weekend is quite interesting as the ex hurricane Humberto gets absorbed into the polar jet, and as it does injects some warm and humid air in our direction! Good signs then of high pressure over the UK next weekend, with low pressure out west of Ireland dragging up this warm air from the sub-Tropical SW. Still a little too far off to be a certain prediction, but next weekend potentially dry and warm with some sunshine, and temperatures may be into the low 70's F (above 21c) come this time next week (next Sunday afternoon). [/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=185107:PPVE89 964 L Mon cool windy showery.png][attachment=185108:viewimage 200mph jet.png][attachment=185115:viewimage v cool windy showery Mon.png][attachment=185109:PPVJ89 rain threat Tue.png][attachment=185110:viewimage wet Tue morning SW.png][attachment=185111:PPVL89 Wed cool drier localised showers.png][attachment=185112:PPVO89 rain times THu.png][attachment=185113:metslp.120 next spell rain THu.png][attachment=185114:ecmt850.096 further rain band Thu.png][attachment=185116:ecmt850.168 ex Humberto dry warm weekend.png][attachment=185117:h850t850eu ex humberto injects warmth our way weeknd.png][attachment=185118:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion unsettels rain times all week WW.png][attachment=185119:prmslWest~Midlands settling weekend.png][attachment=185120:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  15. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Unsettled and very windy at times with further rain or showers , brief drier interludes, a few overnight frosts.[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The unsettled and at times wet and windy weather continued to batter us last week, although at least there was a respite over the Festive period itself and again during this present weekend. No official Met Office sites reported a 'White Christmas' however some places did see wintry showers on the big day, including just a little sleet here in Llanwnnen in the morning making it a technical WC here, indeed the hills not far away were covered white. Llandrindod Wells in Powys was the main lucky spot to witness a 'true' WC as this mid Wales town above 200m had a decent snow covering as did the Brecon Beacons. Appropriately enough with a high of 5.3c Christmas Day could well end up the coldest day of December, not that cold though in what has been a mild wet month for many. Boxing Day saw generally fine and calm conditions ahead of the next Atlantic blast during the night. Hail and thunder featured quite prolifically last week, again particularly for parts of Wales, although Birmingham and Coventry joined in with the action on Friday. There were very windy spells last week and on Friday Aberdaron, a very exposed site on the Llyn Peninsular had a gust of 102mph (subject to verification), most of the Midlands managed to escape the worst of the gales and flooding last week, quite a few trees came down on Friday across West Wales. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]More unsettled at times wet and windy weather as we enter the New Year, so December will end up a thoroughly wet month over West Wales, at Llanwnnen there has been 204mm up to this morning, not so wet for the Midlands, Rugby, Warwickshire is presently on just 44mm and Coventry 61.4mm, so a big variation West to Middle this month! December has also been a mild month and Coventry and some other parts of the Midlands had to wait until this morning for the first air frost (sub zero).[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lovely frosty, sunny Sunday morning, the Midlands also having a sunny afternoon, but cloud spreads across West Wales before sunset (4pm) accompanied by a freshening SW wind, this heralding another wet and windy episode. Clear for a time this evening over the Midlands leading to a widespread ground frost, this should have lifted by midnight as cloud and wind increases. Rain at times overnight for Wales, some heavy and a strong to gale force wind, some rain also affecting the Midlands after midnight, where it also turns windy. A spell of heavy rain and squally winds sweeps east across all parts on Monday morning with gales in places and should be cleared through the East Midlands around midday Monday. A little bump of higher pressure pm so the rest of Monday mostly dry, just the odd shower in places and with sunny spells and much less wind. Highs on Monday a rather mild 8 to 10c. This respite lasts into the evening, clear spells leading to a widespread ground frost down to 1c in parts of the Midlands by midnight. Low pressure is centred NW of Ireland much of this week, and during Tuesday night the next set of fronts brings rain and quite windy conditions back to all areas, again some heavy. An unsettled day then for Tuesday further spells of rain or showers, some heavy with hail and thunder, maxima around 8c. Overnight showers of rain and hail rattle into West Wales but generally dry for the Midlands with clear spells and perhaps a touch of ground frost, so not too bad for the New Year revellers[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]It could be a dry fine start to Wednesday but a lively little secondary depression looks set to cross Ireland afternoon bringing yet more wet and windy weather, depending on the exact rack of this system but there is potential for quite stormy weather again for parts of Wales and England in the afternoon or evening. Academic highs of 9 or 10c for Wednesday. Winds ease off significantly overnight as the low zips away NE with showers for Wales, few if any over the Midlands, no frost. Low pressure still fixed to our NW Thursday with SW winds, this day looking showery and breezy, as is often the case with this set up in Winter, the Midlands seeing few showers and better bright spells, so not such a bad day, highs between 7 and 9c, fairly mild for early January. Friday a similar day with rain or showers in places, some places not seeing so much though and quite windy from the SW still. No sign in a let up from the very unsettled weather through next weekend, further showers or longer spells of rain, some wintry showers perhaps for higher ground, and any dry intervals short lived, it will be windy at times although no gales showing just yet. Overall it looks another wet week, especially for Wales where 100mm could fall in places, so localised flooding issues. Looking further into January and little sign of any particularly cold or wintry weather at least to mid month it would seem, however there is still plenty of time for a change![/size][/font]
    [attachment=200691:PPVG89 wet windy to dry calmer Mon.png][attachment=200692:PPVJ89 showers lsr Tue.png][attachment=200693:h850t850eu wet windy wed.png][attachment=200695:h850t850eu turning wet windy tonight.png][attachment=200696:metslp.96 perhaps wet windy laterr Thu.png][attachment=200699:PPVO89 showery breezy TH.png][attachment=200697:ecmt850.168 colder wekend some rain ore perhaps wintry showers.png][attachment=200698:h850t850eu same old weekend.png][attachment=200700:prmslWarwickshire unsettled all week.png][attachment=200701:t850Warwickshire ave uppers.png]
  16. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Very unsettled with damaging gales and flooding problems likely at times; variable but often quite chilly temperatures, some frost[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wet and windy last week, Llanwnnen had 90mm rain in the past 7 days - 35mm of this fell on Wednesday with localised flooding; rather wet for the Midlands too, Coventry having had 25mm. Temperatures very up and down some days like Monday were very mild, in fact in the early hours of Monday much of the Midlands was above 13c! Thursday was one of the colder days and some parts saw snow showers, we did here at Llanwnnen although it did not lie, the temperature dropped down to just 1c in the mid afternoon sleet and snow. Thunder also featured in the showers for parts of Wales on Thursday, and again on Saturday when a solitary flash of lightning followed by a low rumble was heard during a squall that gave a 53mph gust of wind here. Gales in places last week too, one of the strongest gusts was of over 80mph at Pembrey, Carmarthenshire on Wednesday evening. More very windy and wet weather at times in the coming week as two significant low pressure systems affect the UK. A White Christmas is unlikely although it would only take one flake to fall![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday, and at least we are seeing sunny intervals, although some areas, as with this morning, are being affected by heavy showers with hail and thunder, while other areas, particularly parts of the Midlands escaping these altogether though, highs on Sunday 7 to 9c, a little above average. Showers tending to die down tonight but a few continuing for West Wales, temperatures down to 1 to 3c with a ground frost in places, coasts escaping though. Cloud and wind increases late in the night as a rapidly deepening depression heads towards Ireland. This low is the main feature of the week as it will be one of the deepest, most intense storms to pass close to the UK in many years, and will be bringing severe damaging gales on Monday - the central pressure will fall below 930mbar! The depression will track to the west of Ireland through Monday, and it will already be blowing a gale with heavy rain to greet the dawn on Monday for Wales and with these conditions quickly spreading to the Midlands through the morning. The Midlands is not likely to escape these damaging winds on this occasion as the isobars (pressure lines) are very tight across all UK. Strong to gale force south to SW winds then, inland gusts exceeding 60mph, while for coasts and hills of Wales 80 to 90mph gusts are likely, these speeds will bring down plenty of trees, cause power outages and structural damage. Not just severe gales but heavy rain too associated with this low, and once the rain starts it is set to last through to at least late evening, and will be very heavy at times, especially for Wales, so flooding too will be a problem as we go though the day for some areas. Parts of South Wales undoubtedly set to receive 2 or 3 inches of rain on Monday with an inch falling on most places. Irrelevant considering the other conditions but it will be a mild day, peak temperatures 9 to 11c during Monday evening. The rain should then turn more showery by the early hours of Tuesday, these showers heavy and quite frequent across Wales with hail and possibly thunder, a windy night but the gales should have abated inland. The low continues to deepen on Tuesday as it tracks past Scotland and may reach as low as 925mbar. Historically, the Braer storm of January 1993 saw an estimated 914mbar, but was further north of Scotland, and is thought to be the deepest extra tropical cyclone on record for the North Atlantic [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993"]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Windy and showery on Tuesday, SW winds gusting to gale force. Although winds will be SW, the air has originated over a freezing cold Canada several days previously and is categorised as 'returning Polar maritime' (rPm), and is inherently cold at height if not surface. So a chilly, windy Tuesday with showers, especially across West Wales, parts of the Midlands may escape with a mostly dry, bright day. Cold enough for sleet or snow over the hills on Christmas Eve, above 300m most favoured for wintriness, although it should not settle, many places seeing hail showers on Tuesday. Maxima on Tuesday 5 to 7c. Showers lessening overnight and with clear spells a widespread slight frost develops as the wind decreases substantially, minima by Christmas Day morning around 0c except for milder coasts. A respite from the winds on Christmas Day, we have a slack area of low pressure crossing the SW so moderate breezes at worst! Still rather an unsettled picture with some areas experiencing showers, but more of us managing a generally dry day with sunny intervals. Interestingly we are still in the rather cold rPm air and so if you do see a blob of sleet on the car windscreen on Wednesday then you have technically experienced a 'White Christmas' - I should not rush out and place a late bet though! The Midlands looks best bet for a pleasant bright and chilly afternoon walk, while West Wales will see further rain and hail showers, sleety stuff perhaps for hills. Highs of 5 to 7c for the Big Day. With clearing skies and light winds a widespread slight air frost is likely overnight, although still some showers keep going in places, especially for Wales, again with sleet or wet snow for the hills. Temperatures down to -2c locally.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A bit of a respite again for Thursday too, a slight bump of relatively high pressure kills most of the shower activity, still some places catching them though, and much of the day fairly dry and bright with sunny intervals. Highs on Thursday 5 to 7c again and slightly cold for late December. A frost may develop for the Midlands on Thursday evening but more trouble is looming out west! Another deep low is moving quickly towards Ireland on Thursday evening bringing rain and strong winds to Wales. As this system is still 4 or 5 days off it still has to treated with a degree of hypothesis, but again there is a strong suggestion of damaging gale to severe gales affecting Wales and England on Thursday night into Friday. The GFS is this morning showing a 940mbar system tracking close to Ireland then Scotand through Friday with very tight isobars which would produce damaging gales similar to Monday, while ECM shows the low not as deep or damaging perhaps. Suffice to say Friday morning at least looks a washout with strong to gale force winds, the rain heavy in places with flooding potential although it may clear to showers pm. At least it will be mild highs around 10c.[/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Longer term and the very changeable, disturbed theme continues through next weekend and towards the New Year. Atlantic lows still dominating although brief ridges will dry it up at times, albeit briefly for a day at most. Further showers or longer spells of rain, and possibly wintry showers over higher ground as we are mid Winter. Variable temperatures as lows cross, fluctuating between mild and rather cold, the risk of a few slight frosts on occasion. The chance of more gales exists for the 30th or New Years Eve but that is a long way off to speculate!
    [attachment=199110:PPVG89 Monday storm.png][attachment=199111:ecmt850.048 sub 920 storm Mon night.png][attachment=199112:h850t850eu ex deep L Mon night.png][attachment=199114:ecmt850.048 sub 930 storm Mon night.png][attachment=199115:PPVJ89 windy showery Tue.png][attachment=199116:PPVL89 r cold some showers Christmas Day.png][attachment=199118:ecmt850.096 light winds chilly Christmas Day frost.png][attachment=199119:h850t850eu sh L ligh winds Christmas Day.png][attachment=199120:PPVO89 respite Th.png][attachment=199121:ecmt850.120 rain pot gales Th night.png][attachment=199122:ecmt850.144 potential gales heavy rain Fr.png][attachment=199123:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=199124:h850t850eu pot gale 30th.png][attachment=199125:ecmt850.240 more rain New Year.png][attachment=199127:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=199128:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion very wet Ceredigion.png][attachment=199129:prmslWarwickshire two intense lows.png][attachment=199130:t850Warwickshire fluctuating but r cold temps.png][/size][/font]
  17. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Very disturbed with deep Atlantic lows bringing heavy rain and gales at times; variable temperatures but never especially cold[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A generally mild week gone, although the Midlands in particular saw some frost mid week, and on Wednesday the high was just 6c at Coventry due to an anticyclonic inversion which saw colder surface air trapped beneath mild upper air at cloud level. Then, some very mild air with most places remaining above 9c on Thursday night, Trawscoed and Pershore reaching 13c on Friday. A dry first half to last week but from Thursday it turned increasingly unsettled and windy at times, on Saturday gusts of 85mph at Capel Curig, 65mph at Pembrey and 51mph at Llanwnnen, Wales, being recorded. An inch of rain falling in the past week here near Lampeter while Coventry had just 5mm. The North Atlantic is seeing a very significant temperature contrast presently as really cold air leaving North America meets relatively warm Tropical air from the south, this collision of highly contrasting air masses spawning a succession of deep storm systems. A very disturbed week ahead as a series of deep depressions cross the Atlantic bringing heavy rain and strong to gale force winds to all parts at times, these could well cause damage. with Wednesday and Friday/ Saturday seeming the most likely occasions for these gales. A White Christmas is most unlikely this year (as usual!).[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]


    The dry, bright start to Sunday has flattered to deceive as various weather fronts are set to bring cloud and some rain at times this afternoon and evening, although parts of the Midlands may escape with relatively little again. A fresh to strong SW wind on Sunday gusting to gale force for coasts and hills of Wales. Mild highs of around 12c. A pulse of heavier rain perhaps affecting the South Midlands this evening, but then only patchy light rain and drizzle during the night. Quite a windy night. Very mild too tonight, no lower than 10c for the Midlands, although should the cold front manage to clear through West Wales around dawn it could dip to 6c locally here. This cold front may linger across the Midlands during much of Monday, the central and southern areas of this region more likely to see rain at times through the day, most of it quite light. West Wales may see some showery rain first thing, but then a mainly dry Monday afternoon, bar the odd shower, and with sunny intervals. Highs between 9 and 11c on Monday - mildest for the East Midlands and Pembrokeshire. Most places becoming dry on Monday night with clear spells and a widespread ground frost, temperatures down close to zero, however the lingering front over SE England may decide to return rain to the SE Midlands beyond Coventry once more after midnight? The cold front should at long last have fizzled out over the SE by dawn leaving a dry, bright Tuesday but colder highs of 6 to 8c generally. Clearing skies on Tuesday evening soon leads to a frost as temperatures reach zero across the Midlands by midnight. Increasing wind and eventually cloud for West Wales through the evening lifts any frost and this process should have occurred for the Midlands too by dawn on Wednesday as the wind starts to pick up.

    During Wednesday an intense depression is set to track to the NW of Ireland, the central pressure could well be below 960mbar. Strong south to SW winds developing on Wednesday morning with the potential for widespread gales with gusts to storm force (above 60mph) through the afternoon in particular - so the main feature for Wednesday is the prospect of damaging winds. Patchy rain also to greet dawn on Wednesday for West Wales, this becoming heavier by afternoon and spreading across the Midlands eventually. For Wednesday evening a band of heavy and squally rain moves east across all parts, again with damaging gale force wind gusts associated with this feature, there could also be hail in places. Temperatures on Wednesday rather inconsequential but reaching 8 to 10c, so a fairly mild but very windy day. The main rain clears the East Midlands around midnight, it is then a windy night with squally showers affecting Wales in particular, hail likely in these. In spite of the wind, some quite cold air arrives and temperatures drop to 2 or 3c with a grass frost in places, and the showers over the Welsh hills could be turning wintry. The deep low has move towards Iceland by Thursday with quite a strong cold blustery SW to westerly flow over the UK. Plenty of showers for Wales on Thursday, these often heavy with hail, and some sleet or snow for high ground, although even lower down we could notice a few flakes. Showers spreading to the Midlands too through the course of the afternoon, these again bringing hail and sleet in places. Blustery winds on Thursday, highs of just 5 or 6c and feeling pretty cold in the wind. Some showers continuing even into Thursday night for West Wales but these should die out during the evening for the Midlands, clear spells and a slight frost down just below zero in places, with the wind dropping off too. The next deep low is south of Iceland on Friday but extends its frontal influence across the UK as we go through the day. Soon clouding over then on Friday morning with rain reaching most parts by afternoon, heavy in places, especially Wales. Friday is another day with a likelihood of gales developing, strong to gale force SW winds accompanying the rain on Friday afternoon and evening, the prospect of at least severe gale force gusts of above 50mph quite likely and with more wind damage expected. The rain totals for the week will be totting up too by the end of the week so we could be seeing flooding issues to by Friday into next weekend for some areas. It becomes very mild later on Friday and by evening temperatures will be at 10 to 12c as we will be in the warm sector of the depression.

    This very disturbed picture of volatile Atlantic depressions affecting the UK continues almost unabated next weekend and even through the Christmas period. Further very wet and windy weather then at times for the foreseeable future really, this bringing the unwanted attendant risks of flooding and wind damage over the Festive period. Both of the main weather models are showing a rather nasty looking low crossing southern Britain around Christmas Day in fact! Big swings of temperature in this outlook varying from very mild within warm sectors to quite cold as troughs pass to our east, but any wintriness almost certainly restricted to hills and even up there of very temporary nature. Chances of a White Christmas are then considered very slim! Much more likely is the prospect of a damaging storm system bringing severe gales and flooding along with notably low barometer readings at some stage over the Christmas period.
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  18. TonyH
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    [b]Fairly dry and quite mild; turning unsettled and windier with some rain from Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The rather dry winter weather continues, only 7mm in the past 17 days at Llanwnnen, only a couple of mm at Rugby, although we may be bringing back the rains to an extent by the end of the coming week. Temperatures were around the early December average for much of past week, extensive cloud cover prevented frost and fog generally, only Wednesday night seeing a widespread frost, Pembrey on the Carmarthenshire coast fell to -3c that night - this a frost prone spot due to sandy soils in spite of being adjacent the warming sea! Gale force winds affected the Midlands and parts of Wales on Thursday, gusts close to 60mph at Coleshill, this causing some damage with trees blown down, and even a fatality in Nottinghamshire. Prior to the passage of the cold front temperatures reached a mild 10 or 11c on Thursday although the potential cold snap that was strongly suggested in last week's guide did not materialise, as the very cold air got shunted quickly into Europe during Friday before it could get a hold over southern Britain, and so Friday also turned out mild in SW Wales, Milford Haven reaching 11.8c, although the Midlands was a little below average at around 7c. The general synoptic pattern this week is for high pressure to our SE over Europe and lows out west over the Atlantic, with a feed of south to SW winds bringing plenty of dry and mild weather although it may well turn more unsettled from Thursday, which is though a long way off as we saw last week![/size][/font]
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    A very mild start to Sunday for West Wales, with coasts not having dropped below 9c overnight. Sunday then a generally dry and mild day with sunny intervals, just the odd drizzly shower possible in places, top temperatures afternoon of 10 to 12c - so the mildest day in the Lampeter area for several weeks. The best of the sun on Sunday over the Midlands. Mostly cloudy on Sunday night this preventing frost and temperatures remaining above 5c. MIld SW breezes again for Monday, variable cloud but with the sun breaking through at times, maxima 10 to 12c again. Some clear intervals perhaps Monday night with localised grass frost, but many places avoiding this with too much cloud cover prevalent, minima 2 to 5c. Another similar day for Tuesday, lots of dry and mild weather with sunny intervals, more of a Continental component to the flow could peg temperatures down lower for the Midlands where max may be 8c, but nearer 11c for SW Wales. A little drizzle possible for West Wales later on Tuesday, and it could be turning quite windy here too. Cloud could break more readliy over the Midlands on Tuesday night leading to a fairly widespread ground frost and lows close to zero, but West Wales should be too breezy and cloudy. Subtle differences in wind direction by mid week could alter the feel of the weather, as a drift more from the SSE would bring cooler low level Continental air, particularly for the Midlands, but if the breeze stays even slightly west of south then it remains quite mild. Assuming a SSE drift then, highs only 6 to 8c on Wednesday, but Pembrokeshire higher closer to 10c, and another dry day with some sunny intervals. Again local ground frost where cloud breaks permit for Wednesday night, West Wales most likely to escape.[/size][/font]
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    Uncertainty as ever creeps in as the week progresses, but by Thursday the high over the near Continent may relinquish somewhat permitting weak troughs in from the Atlantic, and this could mean some patchy light rain later Thursday, more especially for West Wales, however it could be that we stay generally dry again with temperatures at least up to the mid December average of 8 or 9c.The barometer more definitely falling by Friday as Atlantic lows gain dominance over the Euro high. This means the trend from Friday and over the weekend is for increasingly unsettled weather with rain and perhaps strong winds at times. Rain at times then to end the week but probably no washout, and although it turns windy, a low chance of gales. Temperatures average to mild next weekend with frost unlikely.[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=196979:PPVG89.png][attachment=196980:PPVJ89 mild m dry Tue.png][attachment=196981:ecmt850.072 Tu m dry mild.png][attachment=196982:PPVL89 dry cooler drift.png][attachment=196983:PPVO89 some rain Th esp WW.png][attachment=196984:ecmt850.096 Tr west late Th.png][attachment=196985:ecmt850.168 rain wind times weekend.png][attachment=196986:h850t850eu potential wet windy spell weekend.png][attachment=196987:prcpWarwickshire some rain from Fri.png][attachment=196988:prmslWarwickshire drop from Fri.png][attachment=196989:t850Warwickshire mildish week.png][attachment=196990:mgram_Birmingham fairly dry overall.png][/size][/font]
  19. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Cold with frosty nights a feature; some rain or showers with hill snow; dry with fog next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A drier week gone - 26mm rain fell here and just 11mm at Coventry, but the extent of the showers during Thursday was not anticipated well in the last guide as although the East Midlands and parts of Pembrokeshire did miss these completely, parts of the Shropshire and Worcestershire caught half an inch or more from persistent showers. Temperatures mostly around or a little below the average last week (10 or 11c), with many places getting at least one air frost including on Tuesday night when it got down to -2.6c here and -3.6c at Benson in Oxfordshire. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]An slight taste of Winter this week as cold air arrives by Tuesday, although the risk of snow is negligible, we could see some quite hard frosts. Sunday has been a calm rather pleasant day with some sunshine in places such as Ceredigion and where it reached a fairly mild 12c. Several cold fronts brings rain to West Wales early on Monday morning moving into the Midlands afternoon, some quite heavy rain about for a time. The rain may linger well into the evening for the SE Midlands. Highs on Monday between 8 and 10c which will be the highest readings we see for at least a week! After a dry interval late afternoon, showers move into West Wales from off the Irish Sea during Monday night, some of these perhaps heavy with hail and marking the arrival of the much colder air, enough so for sleet or snow over the hills. Becoming clear and dry overnight for the Midlands and a widespread frost, many places getting down to around zero in spite of the keen NW breeze, coastal areas mostly escaping a frost however. On Tuesday we are in a cold NW blow between high pressure over the Atlantic and low over Scandinavia. With sea temperatures still up at 10c the cold air flow over Irish Sea is conducive to further shower development and so West Wales catching these, and it is cold enough for snow over high ground above about 1000 feet. Mostly dry with decent sunny spells for the Midlands. Very cold for mid November, highs of just 4 or 5c, but 7c is possible for Pembrokeshire, and a fresh NW wind. Another frost soon setting in after sunset, down to -3c in places by midnight. A low then slips down the North Sea through Wednesday, with the associated fronts bringing rain and mostly hill snow to all parts by morning, and so lifting the frost. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rain at times through Wednesday morning with a fresh west to NW wind, but becoming more showery in the afternoon, again with wintry stuff for high ground. Cold again, highs on Wednesday generally 5 to 7c, but Pembrokeshire could touch 9c. Further showers in places overnight Wednesday and sleet or snow could temporarily come down to lower levels as temperatures drop to around zero, but this should not amount to anything away from high ground. A stiff northerly wind too overnight Wednesday making it feel bitter. Low pressure sinks away south into France during Thursday with pressure trying to build over northern Britain. The really cold air has mixed out by Thursday which is though still quite a chilly day with a NE breeze, there will be sunny intervals and a few rain showers. Highs between 5 and 8c. Clear intervals developing overnight Thursday with any showers tending to die out, still a bit of a breeze but a ground frost for many areas, temperatures down close to zero, with localised air frost and fog where winds drop sufficiently.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Strong indications of high pressure being over or very close to the UK by Friday and lasting right over next weekend. We are still in relatively cold air and the high will tend to trap this chilly air under an inversion layer at cloud level. Looking dry and fairly cold then from Friday, some sunshine, but with clearing skies frost and fog readily forming overnights and this could be slow to clear in places. Potentially quite sharp frosts of -5c are possible and with maxima in the 4 to 7c range, but colder where fog is persistent, this most likely to happen over the river valleys of the Midlands.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=193810:ecmt850.048 cold air arrives Mon night.png][attachment=193811:PPVJ89 cold some showers Tu.png][attachment=193812:h850t850eu cold unsettled Wed.png][attachment=193814:PPVO89 cold m dry Th.png][attachment=193815:ecmt850.120 r cold showers dying Th.png][attachment=193816:h850t850eu dry r cold Fr.png][attachment=193817:ecmt850.168 weekend dry r cold frost and fog.png][attachment=193818:h850t850eu dry r cold weekend.png][attachment=193819:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  20. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Very changeable with spells of rain and strong winds at times; localised flooding[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]As expected the storm that affected the south and SE of England early on Monday missed Wales and the Midlands, although we did get the rain! Church Lawford having 33mm in the 24 hours to 1800, with many other places getting over half an inch (12.5mm). Then further rain at times through the remainder of the past week but with drier interludes also. On Tuesday night many parts saw a grass frost , and here at Llanwnnen the first air frost of the Season occurred, getting down to -0.6c. October ended up very mild, cloudy and very wet. Coventry with 146.4mm rain had it's wettest October since 1903 (162mm) Other monthly rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 214.2mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Pembrey Sands: 177.2mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Capel Curig: 333.5mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Daventry: 121.7mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington: 142.2mm[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another very unsettled and at times wet and windy week ahead with temperatures generally close to average (11c maxima). On top of the very wet October any additional bouts heavy rain will present the risk of localised flooding through the coming week. A vigorous low is crossing northern Britain through Saturday bringing strong to gale force winds. Winds increasing to give gale to severe gale force gusts through this afternoon and evening, 70mph gusts expected for coastal West Wales while 50mph gusts will occur inland which is likely to bring some trees down and cause minor structural damage. Further heavy showers for West Wales for Saturday night with hail in places, strong winds through the night easing by dawn. A brief respite between systems on Sunday, sunny intervals and just a few scattered showers, especially for West Wales. The next low then moves across SW England during Sunday evening, the rain from this pushing north into SW Wales by early evening. Always uncertainty with these south tracking lows as to how far north the rain will affect, but at this point heavy rain reaches as far as Ceredigion and Birmingham perhaps overnight Sunday but this may be subject change as the time approaches. Parts of the South Midlands may receive 20mm of rain from this system over Sunday night with localised flooding possible for counties such as Gloucestershire and Northamptonshire by Monday morning as the low clears SE England. At least we should miss the gale force winds associated with this low which stay to the south over northern France. The clearance occurs in the early hours with a grass frost in places. A bump of higher pressure for Monday which should be a mostly dry and bright if slightly cool day. Maxima on Monday 10c at best for most, although Pembrokeshire should manage 11c. Clearing skies for the Midlands on Monday evening may lead to a temporary touch of ground frost, but for West Wales the next band of rain arrives during the evening. This rain, some of which could be heavy, moves onto the Midlands after midnight, but clears through Wales around dawn. Early rain perhaps for the Midlands on Tuesday accompanied by strong SW winds. Bright and breezy for much of Tuesday, with blustery showers for West Wales, but most of the Midlands escaping these, highs on Tuesday 10 to 12c. Iffy for Bonfire night as some rain may be spreading into SW Wales through the evening, with the Midlands having a better chance of a dry one![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Timings may increasingly go astray from mid week with such a mobile, changeable Atlantic weather pattern! Wednesday looks like starting dry for some, and for the Midlands the next bout of rain may hold off until late afternoon or evening? However, an active weather system comes through later on Wednesday bringing rain to West Wales afternoon, some heavy, and this could well affect the Midlands too by evening. A milder day but becoming quite windy highs of 12 or 13c. So, eventually mild, wet and windy for Wednesday. A warm sector with rain at times for during Wednesday night, also some strong gusty winds, but the cold front comes through by dawn and temperatures drop to 7 to 9c. Sunny intervals and showers for Thursday, most of these for West Wales and parts of the Midlands have a dry afternoon. Highs on Thursday close to the early November average at 10 or 11c but with a keen westerly breeze. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Friday looks promising for another respite from the wind and rain as a weak ridge crosses the UK, however this may well alter to something more damp. Any dry interlude does not last with the next Atlantic low moving in on Saturday, this could bring more heavy rain and gales next weekend.[/size][/font]
  21. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mild to very mild; spells of rain, some heavy, windy at times[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]After a cool start last week was mild for the most part with rain at times, most places receiving between one and two inches of rain through the past 7 days. Monday was very cool over the Midlands with Coventry reaching just 10c, 4c below the mid October average, then by Saturday 18c was recorded widely across the Midlands and also parts of Wales. Some places caught a thundery downpour on Saturday too. Another unsettled but mild week ahead with further heavy rain and strong winds at times.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    The early part of this week is controlled by a complex area of low pressure close to Ireland, so often wet and windy but mild. Sunday afternoon is showery, heavy and squally showers quickly passing through, the chance of a clap of thunder for some, although one or two spots missing them completely. Sunny intervals between and we are still in a very mild air mass, so temperatures up to 15 to 17c in spite of the fresh to strong SW wind. Wind and showers dying out this evening but with some still going for coastal Wales, but then wet weather arrives for SW Wales in the early hours reaching the Midlands by dawn. Another very mild night no lower than 10 or 11c. A spell of heavy rain for many through Monday morning accompanied by a strong SW to south wind, the rain turning lighter and patchier in the afternoon, although still some heavy bursts for West Wales. Mild highs around 15c. Further heavy rain at times during Monday night for Wales again, probably just light rain for the Midlands though. Very mild indeed on Monday night at no lower than 13c, more like it should be on a typical late October afternoon! More rain for all on Tuesday morning this clearing to sunny intervals and showers for the afternoon. Most of the showers affecting SW Wales where some will be heavy and thundery, but only a few for the Midlands on Tuesday afternoon, and with decent sunny breaks it will reach 17c here, while 15c a more typical figure for West Wales. The fresh to strong SW winds continue through Tuesday with gales for exposed coasts. Another double figure celsius night to follow with the wind still quite strong and showers keep going for western coasts.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    By Wednesday the low has transferred to the north of Scotand, this should mean a somewhat drier day but still many places catching the scattered showers, with sunny intervals between these. A fresh westerly by Wednesday afternoon, and cooler and fresher for West Wales at 13 or 14c maxima, but still 16 or 17c for the Midlands as the mild air hangs on here. A cooler night to follow with clear spells down to 5c in places, but holding closer to 10c for most coasts, and a dry night in the main. The next Atlantic low slowly approaches Ireland as we go through Thursday, and so the relatively dry interlude does not last! It could be a dry morning though, and with the Midlands perhaps missing the worst of the rain on Thursday, while West Wales, closest to the trough, looks set for more heavy rain at times, especially on Thursday afternoon. A wet day for Snowdonia then on Thursday where temperatures only manage 12c or so, while for West Wales generally a respectable 14c, and a mild 16c for the East Midlands. Although the southerly breeze will freshen on Thursday, strong winds are not expected. Further rain or showers for Thursday night which is a mild one once more. Little let up on Friday either with a trough of low pressure sat right over England and Wales, so further showers or longer spells of rain, perhaps heavy in places, but mild maxima of between 14 and 16c, and a breezy rather than especially windy day seems probable.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    A broad range of possibilities modelled for next weekend, the best that can be surmised is for a somewhat unsettled but drier couple of days compared with the previous week, so although there will be some further rain and perhaps also strong winds at times, reasonable drier interludes too, so not a washout weekend, and temperatures close to the average which is 12 or 13c at the end of October.[/size][/font]
  22. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain at times; cool start, mild end to the week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The mild air was duly swept away during Wednesday by chilly north winds. The change most marked across the Midlands, on Tuesday it reached a warm 20.7c at Coventry, on Thursday just 11.5c and colder than it had been during Tuesday night! For West Wales Monday night was especially mild with a low of 14.6c at this location. Most of West Wales had a fairly dry week, just 7mm falling at Llanwnnen, but the Midlands saw very wet weather on Saturday with one inch (25.2mm) falling at Coventry in the 24 hours to Sunday morning and well over half an inch at Rugby. In contrast most of West Wales has been dry so far this weekend. More wet weather across the Midlands on Sunday morning, but hopeful that this is becoming more patchy from the east this afternoon. A rather cloudy Sunday afternoon with showery rain in places, but turning drier for the central and eastern Midlands, whereas the SW Midlands keeps the heavy rain, and this also moves into SW Wales, where there could be some heavy rain later this afternoon. A very cool day maxima of just 11 or 12c at best, but SW Wales nearer 14c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]An unsettled week ahead with rain at times and no prolonged dry weather, but at least temperatures rising to above average from mid week. The low pressure that is giving all the rain this weekend is sat over England on Monday, so further outbreaks of rain at times, some heavier bursts still possible. A cool and quite windy day (Midlands especially) and with all the cloud temperatures no higher than 11 or 12c again, although SW Wales with bright intervals could see 14c locally. Skies should clear on Monday night with a ground frost in places, lows close to zero for parts of mid Wales. The low slowly moves away east Tuesday, while the next front remains to our SW, so prospects of a much drier and brighter day although we cannot rule out the odd light shower. Sunny intervals through Tuesday, especially for West Wales, highs of 13 to 15c. Lighter winds on Tuesday. An active frontal system moves NE across all parts through Wednesday with heavy rain in places, temperatures struggling with the cloudy skies, no better than the average of 14 or 15c, and quite a strong SW wind may also develop on Wednesday. The worst of the rain should have cleared through West Wales mid afternoon and the Midlands by sunset, by which time we will be in mild Atlantic air with a few showers.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lull on Thursday seems likely as systems become very sluggish and the promise of a transient ridge for Wales and the Midlands. A mostly dry, bright and mild day but parts of West Wales catching showers afternoon, feeling very pleasant in the sunny intervals with temperatures of 15 or 16c. A mostly dry, mild night to follow. The end of the week and indeed next weekend is controlled by a large slow moving low sat to the west or SW or Ireland. This drags up mild south to SW winds but also brings rain bands from time to time, no doubt some heavy bursts of rain at times. With even brief sunny intervals however temperatures could reach 17 or 18c comfortably over next weekend, and winds should not be too strong either.[/size][/font]
  23. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild and mostly dry to mid week, then much cooler but bright; perhaps some rain for the Midlands next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A mild, rather humid and cloudy week gone, quite wet for Wales, while parts of the Midlands saw precious little rainfall, in what is turning into a dry Autumn here. Wettest parts were Anglesey and the Lleyn Peninsular in NW Wales where almost 2 inches (50mm) fell during Thursday and Friday, whilst Rugby had only 3mm and Coleshill, Warwickshire just 5mm during the whole week. The most notable aspect of the past week was the warm nights, only down to 14 to 16c during Tuesday to Thursday nights, which would be warm in mid Summer! Plenty of dry weather for all in the coming week, mild at first but cool from mid week. Next weekend and the Midlands could be seeing some useful rain but this is not certain.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A ridge of high pressure gives a fine and dry Sunday, feeling pleasant in the sunny spells this afternoon, highs above average at 16 or 17c. Probably too much of a breeze for mist and fog tonight, quite mild, temperatures no lower than 9c. High pressure still over southern parts through Monday, but fronts will be bringing rain to the north. Very mild SW winds and so with decent sunny spells, more especially for the Midlands, a warm day for October, parts of the Midlands hitting 20c on Monday afternoon. Mild for West Wales, but with more in the way of cloud and just sunny intervals highs nearer 17c here. There could be some drizzle for West Wales by evening. A weakening front brings light rain and drizzle overnight for Wales but mostly dry for the Midlands. Very mild on Monday night, minima betwen 12 and 14c. Relatively high pressure still present during Tuesday but with a dying front embedded within this, so a cloudier day in prospect, even a spit of light rain or drizzle in places, but many areas getting a dry day. The cloud may well break in the afternoon to give sunny intervals, and this will warm it up for the Midlands and SW Wales where 18 or 19c is likely, while for Snowdonia a touch cooler and fresher at 15c. Clearing skies on Tuesday night so a cooler one, down to 7c in places. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Changes from Wednesday as low pressure over Scandinavia forces high pressure to the west of the UK, and some chilly north winds eventually reach Wales and the Midlands. A bright morning at least on Wednesday, temperatures responding well over the Midlands and South Wales to sunny spells and where it could touch 16c (60f) so a fairly mild day here, but a cold front is pushing down from the NW afternoon and it clouds over with light rain at times eventually through the afternoon, more epecially for the north of our regions. With the cloud and damp on Wednesday afternoon Snowdonia will be cool, no higher than 12c here, but more generally 14c for West Wales. By Wednesday night we will be in our coolest air so far this Autumn, quite a contrast to the very mild air of the start of the week! Temperatures up at 5000 feet in the clouds on Thursday below zero when they were above 10c on Monday. A much cooler feel to things for the end of the week then. Wednesday night clear spells, the chance of a light shower along West Wales coasts, but a fresh wind preventing any frost, lows around 5c inland. On Thursday we are squeezed between a high to the west and low to the east with a cool northerly airstream but at least dry and bright weather. Temperatures well down for all, only reaching 9 to 12c in spite of the sunny spells! Coolest for North Wales, mildest for Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire where it is more sheltered from the fresh north wind.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Again, probably too much of a breeze on Thursday night for frost, even though the air is cold enough, winds perhaps falling light enough for a ground frost in parts of inland West Wales though, minima 2c locally here and 5c for the breezier Midlands. By the end of the week high pressure should be close to Scotland but with a low over the near Continent to our SE, which may spoil the weekend for some! Friday looking largely dry again, sunny spells, especially for West Wales, while perhaps more cloudy pm for the Midlands, even the chance of a some rain by evening here. A NE breeze for Friday but we will have lost the really chilly air, so maxima of 13 to 15c, only a little below average for mid October, perhaps even feeling quite pleasant for Cardigan Bay. For the weekend, speculative, but West Wales more likely to hang onto some dry and pleasant October weather with temperatures around 15c, while the proximity of low pressure to SE England means that throughout the weekend the Midlands is threatened with some rain at times, possibly heavy in places, and hence cooler here if this happens.[/size][/font]
  24. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild, breezy and unsettled; rain or showers at times, especially during Wednesday/ Thursday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although we were under a very warm air mass for late September early last week, the warmth was not realised in some areas due to persistent low cloud and even mist, this especially spoiling things for parts of the Midlands and SW Wales. Mumbles, Swansea failed to get above 17c on either Monday or Tuesday. For Cardigan Bay and Snowdonia it was glorious early in the week, on Monday Trawsgoed was the warmest place in the UK reaching 25c and it managed 23.6c here near Lampeter. Warmth returned on Friday and Saturday where many places reached 19 to 21c. The highest reading of the week at Coventry was 19.9c on Wednesday so nothing remarkable warmth-wise for the Midlands last week. Some very mild nights too, no lower than 15c on Sunday night here and 14c on Monday night at Coventry (the average late September night would record 8c) Very little rain about last week, less than a millimetre here and no measurable rain at Coventry, we missed the thunderstorms that affected SW England on Saturday. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday we are still in this warm drag of air from the SE off the Continent, and with a weakening front strung out across the south just the threat of some showery rain in places this afternoon, for most no more than a light shower or two, while many places remain dry again. Sunny intervals for Sunday afternoon and feeling pleasant with highs close to 20c. Through the first half of this week are between the influences of a large, slow moving low to the SW of Ireland and a high over Scandinavia, this set up dragging up relatively warm air from the south. Of course, as we are in October from Tuesday, a 'warm' day is anything above 18c as the averages rapidly taper off through Autumn and will soon be referred to as 'mild' instead! The low sends further fronts our way from the SW, again these tending to weaken over us. Another rather cloudy, quite warm day then for Monday, some areas fortunate to get pleasant sunny breaks, while others stay largely cloudy. No great amounts of rain being modelled for Monday, more a case of patchy, light showers occurring and with some areas staying completely dry. Highs on Monday are sun dependent, varying from just 16c where dull and damp, to a warm 20c where decent sunny intervals occur. More of the same on Tuesday, rather large amounts of cloud, bits and pieces of rain about, with a more definite chance that West Wales gets a proper soaking rather than a mere splash on Tuesday, while parts of the Midlands just about escaping with another generally dry and mild day. Temperatures reaching 16c where wettest and 19c where it stays dry. Tuesday night one of the milder nights of the coming week as we are in a warm sector, some areas no lower than 14c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wednesday, and the low is closer to western Ireland, so Wales certainly at risk of some wet weather at times, but lighter, patchier rain and drizzle for the Midlands. Very mild southerlies for Wednesday, temperatures between 18 and 20c, and even 21c is possible if it brightens over the Midlands, quite impressive levels now we are into October! A strengthening southerly wind through the day, especially for the Irish Sea where gale force gusts are likely. Further rain in places overnight Wednesday, this heavy at times for Wales, and a very mild, muggy night, minima between 13 and 15c. Thursday could be the wettest day of the week - low pressure by now centred NW of Ireland with a slow moving front strung out across western UK or Ireland, so at last even the Midlands should expect a soaking. Mild, but with a fresh south to SW wind, maxima between 16 and 18c, so feeling cooler with the wind and rain. The rain could still be going strong well into Thursday night, some places getting an inch in total on this day. By Friday the low is to the north of Scotland, still close enough to produce some further rain or showers, but less intense than on Thursday and with dry, brighter spells between. Cooler for Friday, especially West Wales, no higher than 15c here, while 17 or 18c in places for the Midlands, then with a cooler, fresher night to follow, minima below 10c for the first time this week. Winds will have substantially moderated by the end of the week. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The promise of a ridge of high pressure arriving in time for Saturday, which looks mainly dry if a touch cool, maxima down to 14 or 15c, and a little below the early October average. The fine weather could hang on into Sunday too, the Midlands may get away with a dry and bright Sunday too, however the next Atlantic low is heading for Ireland and so we may well see rain eventually for West Wales. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=186831:PPVG89 weakening fronts shower thret Mon.png][attachment=186832:ecmt850.048 r warm chance of shower Mon.png][attachment=186833:PPVJ89 rain esp WW Tue.png][attachment=186834:PPVM89 vm rain times windy in west Wed.png][attachment=186835:h850t850eu v mild rain times Wed.png][attachment=186836:metslp.96 wet windy west drier east Wed.png][attachment=186837:ecmt850.144 cooler unsettled FRi.png][attachment=186838:ecmslp.168 drier weekend rain threat Wales.png][attachment=186839:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion wet WW Wed Thu.png][attachment=186840:t850West~Midlands mild to Fri.png][attachment=186841:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  25. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry, bright and warm to mid week; some rain and cooler from Thursday/ Friday[/b][/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]A rather cool and unsettled week gone with rain at times, Wales wetter than the Midlands as is typical, Llanwnnen recieving 33mm in total during the past 7 days, compared with just 9mm at Coventry for example. Notably cool across the Midlands on Tuesday, highs of just 10 or 11c in places, at 11c maximum it was the coldest September day in Coventry since 1983 (thanks to Steve Jackson [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]@bablakewx[/url][font=arial][size=3] ). Then very cool for parts of Wales last Wednesday when it only managed 13.2c here at Llanwnnen, this some 5c below the average mid September figure. For most of us it has warmed up appreciably during this weekend thanks to a deep Tropical marime flow of air, courtesy of former hurricane Humberto - although not everywhere has seen the sunshine as yet! Where the sun did appear it was warm on Saturday reaching 22 or 23c. Most places seeing at least some warm sunshine up to Tuesday, possibly even Wednesday, with the trend being to cooler and more unsettled condtions as we progress through the week.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Warm last night, most places no lower than 14 to 16c, here it was the warmest night of September with a minimum of 15.1c, the average for a late September night being 9c.Some areas faring poorly on Sunday and failing to benefit from the warm air mass due to persistent low cloud. However, a better chance than on Saturday for decent sunny spells to develop more widely raising temperatures into the low to mid 70's F ( 21 to 24c). A sunny start evident on the Bablake webcam in Coventry this morning (although more cloudy there currently) - the Midlands a favoured area for sunny spells through this afternoon too, while for West Wales more pot luck. The north coast of Gwynedd sheltered by Snowdonia and parts of Cardigan Bay seeing sunshine at times this afternoon, so hopfeful that the Ceredigion coasts seeing some warm sunny spells eventually, along with places such as Llandudno and Moelfre, Anglesey. South facing coasts though always more likely to stick with the low cloud, places such as Tenby and Aberdaron perhaps staying mostly cloudy, even misty today, and so temperatures not rising much at all, no better than 19c here, although still pleasantly warm for late September. Another mild night to follow. By Monday the high pressure more favourably positioned to our east and winds coming more from the SE means a better prospect for most spots to join in with some very warm and sunny conditions. Plenty of sunshine then expected for most on Monday, highs generally 22 to 25c, way above average for this stage in Autumn! It is still possible that a few coastal places with onshore breezes miss out suffering persistent sea mist, areas like West Pembrokeshire perhaps, and if so no better than 19c here, but even Cardigan Bay coasts should be reaching a sunny 22c on Monday.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Clear periods on Monday night with fog forming in places and so it may be a foggy start to Tuesday. Our high pressure is getting squeezed out by fronts to the SW and NE, although inbetween we stay dry and warm again. Good prospects again then for warm sunny spells on Tuesday once any fog clears, highs between 21 and 23c widely, and almost certainly the last time we experience such warmth until next Spring, although again cooler for some coasts. Dry for all on Tuesday. Mist and fog forming once more in places through Tuesday night where clear intervals permit. Another misty start for some on Wednesday, but then another generally dry day, even if pressure is relatively low by this point, with the fronts to our SW and NE not moving much and also fizzling out. A warm day with sunny intervals expected for Wednesday, there could be a light shower in places but generally dry once more with light winds. Highs on Wednesday 18 to 21c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Thursday is when the uncertainties and differing scenarios come into play this week. It is starting to turn more unsettled and somewhat cooler, although many models keep it on the mild side still. The warm air mass from the start of the week has most certainly evaporated away, and it will have turned cool over northern UK, but for Wales and England this cool air not likely to make headway south even by next weekend. The best description for Thursday would be that we are in a kind of 'No Man's Land' weatherwise, pressure neither high nor low, temperatures close to average (around 17c), variable cloud, but sunshine in places, mostly dry, but some places catching a shower! Friday, and a trough of low pressure is developing west of Ireland it would seem, although the uncertainty must be stressed and low pressure may be deflected more to our SW keeping it mainly dry for the end of the week? More probable a scenario though is that we see falling pressure for Friday and Saturday, with rain at times, but no washout expected, temperatures perhaps rather warm on Friday, but then closer to average over the weekend. Saturday would appear to be the day most likely to be wet, the trough then looks like slowly clearing east by Sunday which would be a brighter and drier day. Looking very unsettled, wet and windy at times, as we move into October...[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=186152:PPVG89 v warm sunny Mon.png][attachment=186154:ecmt850.048 v warm sun Mon.png][attachment=186153:PPVJ89 dry warm between fronts.png][attachment=186155:ecmt850.096 m dry warm Wed.png][attachment=186156:metslp.120 NML Thu.png][attachment=186157:PPVO89 m dry rel mild Thu.png][attachment=186158:ecmt850.144 FRi r warm but rain to WW.png][attachment=186159:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend but mild.png][attachment=186160:prcpWest~Midlands unsettled from Thu.png][attachment=186161:mgram_Birmingham warm to mid week unsettles ending.png][/size][/font]
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