convector

Arome 12z still calling for development late evening as temps cool off and dews rise slightly from the SE. (strange that the uk/ireland version doesnt have this though)

struggling to see the potential tomorrow looking at the charts - shear looks good but not much in the way of instability or anything in terms of a trigger...

how did you get access to real weather balloon data? i can usually only find forecast skew-t's

All set for a good chase if the weather stays favourable - another lincs / east anglia setup by the looks of it. Fuel prices below a pound right now so i'm down to travel far.

Does anyone know why storms happen less often now i.e. less plume events in the last decade or so? (or at least point me in the right direction to find out)

Why do our seasons suck so much now? The last five years have been awful for storms which leads me to believe there must be some long term processes at play - things like solar cycles (currently minimum), AMO phases (currently positive) and possibly even coal power stations closing down (water vapour from cooling towers could cause storm initiation). With my limited knowledge of meteorology i can only think that a lack of storms is due to lower instances of cut off lows and similar patterns which lead to moisture advection and heat from the south. High pressure seems more dominant now making summer a hot a dry affair. I wonder if anyone can shed some light on this.

i think people overestimate what it takes to form a supercell in this country...

does indeed look like a low topped supercell or at least something with mild rotation - you can see it in the lightning trail - the movement is more southerly than surrounding cells

Well that's a bad idea, i'd rather be in kent tonight than where i am...

I was just thinking that - could be a nice surprise :0

First storms to reach landfall in the SW near plymouth

i don't remember a winter worse than this.. 2014/15 had some snowfall to low levels even with a rampant jet stream and training lows

Keep an ear out tonight if you're in the south - could see some thunderstorms tracking north off the channel.

Anyone chasing today? I'm thinking of heading up towards the wash and lincolnshire.

Was anyone chasing that supercell up north earlier? Really interested to see what structure that thing had - wouldn't be surprised if there was a funnel or brief tornado.

New area of development on this shortwave

Looks like a supercell. Strike rates 100/min and deviating right of the mean wind.

This all looks elevated still - everything is racing away north and not rooting to the boundary layer at all.

It's about to go bang in the far south east

Latest sounding from Larkhill shows the cap in place but with massive CAPE just waiting to be tapped into. Expecting destabilisation later this evening as the trough approaches from the west, but time will tell.

ACAS over Oxford

looks like you're in a good spot. simulated IR from AROME has storms initiated just before midnight along the south cost heading north along the A34 and around convergence in the bristol channel.

funny that's where i expect storms to be popping off around that time today

What is this line anyway? some kind of upper front or shortwave? There doesn't seem to be much convergence at the surface.

could be under high pressure though