convector

I can attest to this; haven't seen a good storm i didn't need to chase for since 2014/2015.

storm events in the uk up were far more frequent up until around 2013, if i recall correctly - at least in the last 10 years or so.

surprised how little talk there is on the cells heading for cambridge. in hindsight, setting up there at the start of the day would've been a great call

The amount of cumulus clouds have increased over the hour, as visible on satellite - so that's somewhat promising. Going by xc, it looks like convergence is establishing over the SE up through lincolnshire, where easterlies meet westerlies.

That's just a flaw in the netwx model. There is specifically no cape under the ppn, i assume, because it accounts for the change in atmospheric conditions, locally.

anyone noticing the line of cumulus developing over northampshire?

surely if the cap was eroding we'd be seeing cumulus at much lower levels

keeping an eye on that cell north of stoke-on-trent

probably being throttled by the cap

looks like the caps broken in northern ireland

Is it just me or are things looking more promising south of the main risk area. All that cloud/rain can't be good for insolation; though, there's still the problem of finding a trigger.

ah, cool. my apologies. i wasn't aware you could be incorrect when clearly exaggerating.

plain incorrect? storms initiating around and north of the peak district seems to be the general consensus among models at the moment.

another day of chasing anoprops *sigh*

If you're referring to 2014, there was a impressive low-topped supercell that day which passed through oxfordshire. Unfortunately, i don't have the GFS charts for that day, but here's the sounding and radar (i have more photos too, if anyone's interested). If those CAPE/Li values really are accurate for tomorrow, i can only imagine the storms it could support.

speck over birmingham lol

It does look to be steering north now

Slim indeed, however, if that trough sticks around and the cold front pivots/stalls, it would certainly raise the possibility. The gfs has been ever so slightly increasing instability across the far SE over the last day or two, which is somewhat promising. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a (rather pathetic) kent clipper or, at least, some offshore lightning. Can't wait to see some real setups - desperate to chase something (which is probably why i'm writing so much on an off chance). Although, saying that, things could get interesting over the weekend if the shear's good.

Thanks for the warm welcome Looks like things are about to get interesting - those cells to the SE are exploding!

Banking on new development to the south now, since these cells along the convergence boundary still haven't got their act together. Satellite looks promising and observations from others in the group seem to confirm the possibility. NMM from this morning also agrees with this evolution, having the northern cells die out as new ones initiate in the south around 18z.