convector

just looked out the window wasn't expecting to see anything convective today. Any chance these could turn thundery? Profiles look limited in height

This is looking like crap right now.. If i wasn't reading forecasts and charts i'd assume nothing was happening today.

seriously no talk about tomorrow? looks fatt

Anyone else find it interesting how the temperatures increased right after sunset? not what you'd usually expect. Ive known it happen before in january 2015, where temps got up to 17C at around midnight, but that was a different scenario. That year we had a rampant jet stream due to el nino. But now we're in la nina and im quite enjoying all the dry/settled weather

Could be some surprises next week

How much you wanna bet there's no storms of this heat wave, again.. reminding me of 2018 a bit - scorcher weeks of high pressure with no thundery breakdown

yep thats a bust, south east may still get a lil something as they so often do

havent seen any sferics all day

This whole setups been modelled pretty poorly, met office had an occlusion hooking north to the east yesterday on their surface pressure charts. Now its a straight warm front followed by a broad occlusion from the south. Hoping as this lifts north there will be a flow of instability from france , while the long wave to the west brings a trigger. WRF 12z from yesterday proving more accurate that mor recent runs - from experience they do best the day before. Later runs will have developments starting late and not account for earlier details.

weekend looks spicy

Reckon the skies might look pretty tonight over birmingham/cotswolds area - no chance of a storm though. Just some lingering CAPE beneath a strengthening ridge

Had a modest rumble in oxford, nothing on lightning maps though.

No talk today? few little storms around this afternoon and yesterday. Tomorrow might be more interesting in the NE flow

Really surprised there's not more talk about this right now, was in oxford when that hook passed through and it's taken several trees down and some cladding off the tower blocks! Half expected to see a tornado as the winds were so strong

perhaps there is some hope for the south tomorrow

Went chasing today but can't really say i saw much. My target area was around the wash (any further north was hard to justify) - I arrived in peterborough around 4:30 just in time to catch some cells to my SE moving north. Driving to wisbech along the A47 i saw a few CG strikes, but most of the activity was way up in cloud tops somewhere. They weren't very potent actually - in fact, the storms ii chased a couple weeks ago were much better with far less instability. I put it down to a lack of shear and forcing in particular - maybe the upper mid levels were a little dry too idk. Bit disappointing, however i did get some footage and a nice cumulonimbus in the evening as i was heading back.

netweather model going for gold tomorrow hoping for a good chase around the wash

looks like its all converging on you

Hope someones chasing that supercell near nottingham. could've chased today but its been back to back storms in the NW for the last 3 days and im nackered Have to drive back to oxford after each chase cause hotels are shut (maybe i should sleep out of the car or something haha)

possible supercell developing south of nottingham

development happening around the london area

Arome 12z still calling for development late evening as temps cool off and dews rise slightly from the SE. (strange that the uk/ireland version doesnt have this though)

struggling to see the potential tomorrow looking at the charts - shear looks good but not much in the way of instability or anything in terms of a trigger...

how did you get access to real weather balloon data? i can usually only find forecast skew-t's

All set for a good chase if the weather stays favourable - another lincs / east anglia setup by the looks of it. Fuel prices below a pound right now so i'm down to travel far.